Visit Featured Client Sites for Live Content
Fantasy Football: SNY.tv Michigan Live ProJo.com Rocky Mountain News
Fantasy Baseball: SNY.tv Michigan Live,
New York Sports: SNY.TV
Wide Receivers
By Michael Salfino
Updated 9/4, 10:40 a.m. EST
2006 WR Rankings
Key WR Stats
Targets
Red Zone Targets
Team Red Zone Run/Pass Percentages
Team First-Down Run/Pass Percentages
Team Overall Run/Pass Percentages
Team Red Zone Possessions
Tight Ends Targets/Red Zone Targets
Right after the Top-10 RBs:
1. Steve Smith, Panthers
2. Torry Holt, Rams
3. Chad Johnson, Bengals
This is an odd year in that all of these top receivers come with clear risks. Steve Smith is likely to face a drop in targets with Keyshawn Johnson in the mix. Does a solid No. 2 receiver hurt the No. 1 receiver or help him? It’s an age-old question. I think it depends on the type of receiver the No. 1 is. If he’s a home-run hitter, it helps him, generally speaking. Smith is that, for sure. But the caveat in this situation is that the Panthers don’t like to throw a lot and, given their defense and newfound depth at running back, won’t likely have to in 2006. Holt has a new offensive system, but Scott Linehan really emphasized Chris Chambers last year (Chambers led the NFL with 29 red zone targets) and will likely make Holt the extreme Alpha-male in the Rams passing game. The big question for Holt is whether Marc Bulger’s shoulder can withstand that first big hit. Chad Johnson was hurt by the emergence of T.J. Houshmandzadeh, who became the team’s primary weapon in the red zone. No. 1 fantasy receivers must feast in the red zone to earn their keep. But we’re thinking that was a one-year fluke and Johnson will reassert his go-to status in all areas of the field in 2006. Johnson needs Carson Palmer to be healthy all year, and Palmer’s knee could cause problems post-ACL surgery.
A Notch Below
4. Marvin Harrison, Colts
5. Chris Chambers, Dolphins
6. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
7. Terrell Owens, Cowboys
8. Randy Moss, Raiders
9. Anquan Boldin, Cardinals
10. Roy Williams, Lions
11. Reggie Wayne, Colts
We’d be happy to walk away with any of these wide receivers, too. If you can snag two of them, you’re living large. In most leagues, a team could get one of the trinity and two of these receivers. Imagine coming out of the first three rounds with Larry Johnson, Chris Chambers and Anquan Boldin? An embarrassment of riches. Harrison might be supplanted by Reggie Wayne this year as Manning’s top targeted WR, but he’ll get 10 TDs and 1,200 yards either way. That's about the floor; unfortunately, the ceiling isn’t much higher for the 34-year-old. I’m higher on Chambers than everyone. But he’s the most exciting guy to me in this group and I don’t even like Culpepper. Daunte’s lack of mobility post-knee catastrophe and tendency to lock on to targets could actually help Chambers owners, if not the Dolphins. T.O. is going earlier than I thought in most drafts. Will Bill Parcells get the most out of him or will Owens blow up? If it’s the former, Owens will very likely be the top fantasy wide receiver by a nice margin. I’d say it’s about 60-40 that this all works out swimmingly, at least for 2006. But there is another risk factor with Owens. He’s turning 33 this season and has missed large stretches of each of the past two seasons. Perhaps the hamstring woes in camp are a harbinger. Randy Moss is still the best Moss. But he hasn’t been healthy for the better part of two seasons and there are legitimate questions as to whether he’ll be close to the fantasy force he was in Minnesota. Fitzgerald is probably better than Boldin, more explosive downfield with his great size and ball skills. But he might be on the short end of the target allotment again and there will likely be less of them with Edgerrin James around. Of course, James will create more opportunities for run-pass deception, which will mean more big plays. Fitzgerald is likely to capitalize on these more than the possession-oriented Boldin, but Anquan is the better value if he goes at least one round later. Roy Williams excites me, too. But I was burned last year and still feel the sting. Will Mike Martz have free reign in the offense? Yes, to start the year. But if the team blows up with some bad decision making by the always erratic Jon Kitna, the reigns will be tightened. Still, there’s a better than even chance he’ll turn Roy into Torry Holt. I’m willing to forget about Wayne’s scoring woes in 2005 and remember the dynamo he was in 2004. The Colts will not run as much in the red zone this year with James in Arizona.
Early-Round Consideration
12. Hines Ward, Steelers
13. Santana Moss, Redskins
14. Donald Driver, Packers
15. Andre Johnson, Texans
16. Lee Evans, Bills
17. Javon Walker, Broncos
18. Darrell Jackson, Seahawks
19. Joey Galloway, Bucs
20. Plaxico Burress, Steelers
21. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Bengals
I've moved Ward down a tier because of Roethlisberger's appendectomy, which should sideline him 1-to-3 games. This ranking assumes Big Ben is out two games. Ward finished fourth in the NFL last year in red zone targets and I think he’ll get even more chances this year, as I expect the Steelers defense to regress and Jerome Bettis isn’t around; Pittsburgh might wisely choose to rely more on Roethlisberger in the red zone, where he was second most efficient at converting red zone plays into TDs (behind only Byron Leftwich, who had a small sample size). My problem with Santana Moss is that I don’t think the Redskins are comfortable using him as a possession receiver, which is why they fortified their corps this offseason with Brandon Lloyd and Antwaan Randle El. Santana had 130 targets last year, a low number for a top fantasy wide receiver (move Moss up in distance formats). Driver is a pro and the Packers will likely throw a lot. He also has no one breathing down his neck for targets. Andre Johnson always disappoints, but we think Gary Kubiak is going to turn him into a super-sized Rod Smith. Eric Moulds concerns us a little, but Moulds could be just good enough to distract defenses but no longer good enough to threaten Johnson’s supremacy in the passing game. Evans is clearly No. 1 but has not proven he can handle possession chores to go along with his big-strike capability. There are also big question marks at QB. But new OC Steve Fairchild loves to throw if defensive-minded Dick Jauron lets him. Walker’s supreme athleticism is in question post-ACL surgery. Does he have the wiles and route-running ability to compensate for anything he’s lost? Probably not. But maybe he’ll be fully recovered. Mike Shanahan was convinced, though he was convinced once about Ashlie Lelie, too. Jackson, meanwhile, gets a downgrade because there's a decent chance his knee won't be healthy enough for him to play Week 1. But he not only had one of the best targets-per-game numbers in football last year (in just six games, I know), but caught 69 percent of them, a ridiculously high number. This year, when healthy, he’ll be the go-to guy in the red zone, too, as Joe Jurevicius is gone and someone must get those looks. Galloway was a monster last year with 9.5 targets per game and 10 TDs. He was very productive down the stretch in ’04, too, but we all missed that. Plax is a dog who will not put in the effort and practice that it takes to be great. But he is the No. 1 wide receiver (if not No. 1 target with Jeremy Shockey around) in an offense loaded with weapons. Houshmandzadeh is the anti-Plax, but will never be the top dog with Chad Johnson around. The target trends, especially in the red zone, will very likely reverse themselves. So don’t count on T.J. again leading the NFL in red zone plays per game (1.9).
Mid-Round Picks
22. Matt Jones, Jaguars
23. Donte Stallworth, Eagles
24. Reggie Brown, Eagles
25. Joe Horn, Saints
26. Deion Branch, Patriots
27. Derrick Mason, Ravens
28. Drew Bennett, Titans
29. Antonio Bryant, Niners
30. Muhsin Muhammad, Bears
31. Terry Glenn, Cowboys
32. Eddie Kennison, Chiefs
33. Laveranues Coles, Jets
I badly want to put Jones into the above group and will happily reach for him in those dead middle rounds. With no Jimmy Smith around, he’s even money to be top 10 in red zone looks this year. Brown and Stallworth will vie for the Number One receiver job in Philly, but will likely be 1 and 1A with both being good for 120 or so targets, good for 6-to-9 scores. Stallworth is the more explosive player, if he can stay healthy and adapt to the new system. Brown has the higher floor. Horn is on the wrong side of the mountain, but the trade of Stallworth cements him as No. 1 receiver, though we question what he can do with the increased targets. Branch is only worth this high a pick in leagues that emphasize yardage and catches; he has no upside, even when his holdout ends. I've been pessimistic about this holdout quickly ending all summer. Now that everyone sees it this way, I feel it has a better chance of ending sooner. So, I'm not downgrading beyond this point. But you won't need to draft him here; this is just where I think he'll finish. Mason could click with McNair again, though both are likely on the wrong side of the mountain (McNair’s game really cratered last year when you compare it to his last year when he was relatively healthy, 2003). Bennett was top 10 among WRs in targets per game last year. I know Givens is around now and all those TEs, too, but Bennett knows the system better and has chemistry with Billy Volek. Stallworth supplanted Joe Horn as No. 1 receiver last year, but there’s a new sheriff in town and a new QB. Plus, there were strong rumors that Stallworth was being shopped on draft day. Bryant is a guy I’d get in every draft, too. People hate Alex Smith so much, but why? QBs often are terrible in the beginning. John Elway was a horror show as a rookie (7 TDs, 14 picks). I’m not saying Smith is going to be great or even good, just that last year’s performance doesn’t mean much in gauging his long-term or even 2006 prospects. If he’s mediocre, Bryant will be a solid starter because he’s clearly the best wideout and the Niners will have to throw a lot because of their poor pass defense. The Bears are seemingly doomed to have a bad offense no matter what effort they make to upgrade. Call it the Curse of Dick Butkus. Muhammad is at least an okay No. 3 WR in point-per-catch league. He’s in great shape and might have 8-to-10 TDs in him if the Bears can find a QB and keep him on the field. Glenn and Kennison are both very good yards per catch guys near the end of their careers. Glenn may have had his best season last year. But neither are going to get enough targets, with T.O. now in Dallas and Herm Edwards determined to run the ball 550 times. Coles is a sure No. 1 receiver on a team that’s very likely to have trouble scoring. There is a chance that the young studs on the O-line gel quickly and Chad Pennington returns to pre-injury form. At least that’s what Jets fans think when they’re sitting on Santa’s lap.
Mid-/Late-Round Picks
34. Troy Williamson, Vikings
35. Jerry Porter, Raiders
36. Keyshawn Johnson, Cowboys
37. Braylon Edwards, Browns
38. David Givens, Titans
39. Rod Smith, Broncos
40. Nate Burleson, Seahawks
41. Travis Taylor, Vikings
42. Roddy White, Falcons
43. Michael Jenkins, Falcons
44. Kevin Curtis, Rams
45. Isaac Bruce, Rams
Bottom line on these guys: Porter alienated the staff with this bitching and moaning all spring and summer. Williamson is raw but has all the tools needed for a leap of faith post-Koren Robinson's latest alchohol indiscretion. Remember, Brad Johnson’s lack of arm strength wasn’t in evidence on his downfield (10-to-20 yard) throws last year (112.9 rating). Keyshawn always gets the ball in the red zone (22 plays last year, tied for sixth on a per-game basis), but does little with them (just six scores). Edwards is recovering from a torn ACL but could recover in time to play in September and shine in the second half. Givens will likely suffer the same miserable fate as most (all?) No. 2 receivers who switch teams. Rod Smith just keeps rolling along, but he can’t go on forever and is 36. Burleson had his chance and blew it last year, but Seattle saw something. Travis Taylor is having a great camp and has the first-round pedigree and opportunity that has turned many guys like him into unexpected fantasy contributors. White could be a No. 1 receiver in Atlanta, but that’s not a big deal unless Matt Schaub plays (Michael Vick can’t throw it). Ditto Jenkins. Curtis deserves a better fate than being behind a declining Bruce in the Rams’ pecking order.
Late-Round Picks
46. Doug Gabriel, Patriots
47. Ernest Wilford, Jaguars
48. Keenan McCardell, Chargers
49. Brandon Lloyd, Redskins
50. Michael Clayton, Bucs
51. Cedrick Wilson, Steelers
52. Greg Jennings, Packers
53. Mark Clayton, Ravens
54. Samie Parker, Chiefs
55. Eric Parker, Chargers
56. Santonio Holmes, Steelers
57. Chad Jackson, Patriots
We really liked Koren Robinson. But I guess this is why they call addiction a disease. On the bright side, driving 100 miles an hour while drunk and without a license does constitute a tryout for the Bengals. (If he’d only had minors drinking in the car with him while also physically abusing a spouse, he’d be all set as Cincy’s fourth WR in ’07.) The rest are all good value plays, as the WR group runs pretty deep this year with guys who could really return significantly greater fantasy productivity than the cost of where they’re picked. I'm pessimistic about the unproven Gabriel's ability to quickly pick up the Pats system and believe he's just there to get Branch back in uniform more quickly. Wilford is falling through the cracks because of the infatuation with Matt Jones, but there’s a decent chance he could be just as productive. Lloyd might end up starting opposite Moss, as Antwaan Randle El is more of a slot receiver (as is Moss). I like Michael more than Mark in the Battle of the Claytons because I can’t get Michael’s 2004 rookie year out of my head. Mark is the third banana in Baltimore behind Mason and Heap. Wilson is the starter until Holmes figures it out, but the Steelers want a better playmaker opposite Ward. Jennings had the best camp among the rookie wideouts, not that this means much once the bullets start flying for real. Samie Parker has a weak No. 1 receiver in Eddie Kennison, but hasn’t ever done anything. Eric Parker is a guy I've always like and McCardell can't go on forever, can he? Holmes’ fate is tied to the efficiency of the Steelers’ running game, which I don’t think will be as consistent as in past years. But Holmes likely will take some time to develop and should be targeted primarily in keeper leagues. Jackson is in the perfect spot, but rookies usually take a year or two; get him in keeper leagues. His chances this year are severely diminished given he's missed almost all of camp and didn't even appear in a preseason game due to a bad hamstring.
|
