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Quarterbacks By Michael Salfino

Updated September 3, 8 p.m. EST

Player Profiles

Quarterbacks Running Backs Wide Receivers Tight Ends RotoAction Key Fantasy Stats

RotoAction Key Fantasy QB Stats:

Yard Per Pass Attempt
Functional Arm Strength
Accuracy
Red Zone
Attempts Per TD
Attempts Per Game
Red Zone Tendencies
Run/Pass Percentages
Red Zone Possessions

To see my profiles of each QB, you’ll have to pick up the RotoWire Football Guide at your local newsstand or major bookstore. You can also get it through their website, www.RotoWire.com.

We’ve reached a point in most fantasy football leagues where the owner with the best chance of winning is the one who waits the longest to pick a couple of capable fantasy QBs.

Leap for a signal-caller even in round two or three and you’ve dramatically increased your odds of being a donator to the prize pool.

The objective here is to help you find some mid-round gems. Ideally, you will draft the last two remaining first-tier QBs somewhere in these middle rounds, back to back, after all but one or two teams have tabbed their starting signal caller. In short, be among the last to draft a starter and the first to draft a backup.

Early/Middle Rounds:

1. Peyton Manning, Colts
2. Carson Palmer, Bengals
3. Tom Brady, Patriots
4. Donovan McNabb, Eagles
5. Kurt Warner, Cardinals
6. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks
7. Jake Delhomme, Panthers
8. Drew Bledsoe, Cowboys
9. Marc Bulger, Rams
10. Eli Manning, Giants

I could live with each of these guys as my starter. But the further you go down the list, the better off you are at taking a second QB in this tier. Again (because people don’t read intros, admit it, you didn’t), in a 12-team league, be the 11th or so to take a starter and the first to take a backup.

Warner is the controversial ranking. Yes, he can get hurt. But on a points-per-game basis, he’ll rank at least fifth overall. Will it be seven games or 13 or 16? Who knows. Count on about 13. Hope for more. And prepare for the fact he’s probably going to miss some key games for you. Replacement value at QB is so high, that it’s no big deal even if you are unable to double down with a second top-tier QB. There will be about five or six backups that ascend through performance-issues or injury that will be at least serviceable, short-term starters. Durability is less important at QB than any position. You want to maximize your points each week.

The other surprise, I guess, is also sticking McNabb over Hasselbeck, who admittedly has a higher floor. But Hasselbeck isn’t going to win your league for you, so why burn a pick on him that you can spend on a decent WR or RB with a pulse. The Eagles are going to still throw about 60 percent of the time, which is a huge benefit for scoring fantasy points (NFL average is about 53 percent).

Palmer would have been a solid No. 2 on my list had he not gotten hurt. He's a shaky No. 2 now, even with the great performance against Green Bay (three TDs in less than one half and an 11-yard scramble). The added risk in light of his major knee surgery has not disappeared, but Palmer clearly showed he currently is healthy enough to play and play well. Brady gets our nod at No. 3 because the Patriots were the only winning team in the top 10 in pass percentage. He’s also an incredibly efficient red-zone scorer and the opportunities likely will be greater because Corey Dillon is unlikely to again lead the league in converting inside-the-five runs into TDs. We wish the Pats would work things out with Deion Branch, but that's gotten ugly.

As for Bulger, who is being downgraded because of generally negativity regarding the Rams, playing on a bad team can be a good thing for a fantasy QB. The receivers are still there. Linehan has gotten good production in the past from his QBs, though Daunte Culpepper was an altogether different animal. There's a chance this could ugly and an even better chance Bulger can hurt again. But the upside is here, especially if the defense is terrible.

Middle/Late Rounds

11. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
12. Drew Brees, Saints
13. Jon Kitna, Lions
14. Jake Plummer, Broncos
15. Daunte Culpepper, Dolphins
16. Michael Vick, Falcons
17. Trent Green, Chiefs
18. Brad Johnson, Vikings
19. Brett Favre, Packers

There’s a similar argument for Brees. Lay off all the guys switching systems unless they’ve proven that a system switch hasn’t hurt them before. (In other words, we’re not docking T.O. for switching teams.)

Roethlisberger is worth a flyer in the middle rounds because there’s a chance the Steelers’ running game could crater. I feel this way even after news of the appendectomy that will sideline him 1-to-3 games (he'll be cheaper now). Big Ben is a dynamic playmaker who only needs the opportunity to make more plays. Cowher gave those opportunities once to Tommy Maddox. Again, this isn’t likely. But there is only one missing ingredient with Roethlisberger and that can’t be said of any other QB in this tier. The Steelers defense is old, too.

The Lions starter is likely to be Kitna, but there are no guarantees beyond opening day. McCown backslid in the spring. Dan Orlovsky was being talked about by Martz as the QB of the future. That would bode well for Kitna’s prospects to hold the job in 2006. But Kitna isn’t very good and we can’t be certain how much latitude Martz will be given in the playcalling. It will likely be wide latitude, at least initially.

Johnson gets a big upgrade at coordinator, as the Vikings have former Eagles playcaller Brad Childress as head coach. Philly was among the leaders the past couple of years in all the QB opportunity stats.

Green will not be among the passing yardage leaders with Herm Edwards bent on running the ball 550 times (that’s what he said, honest). Plus, his defense is better with the addition of Ty Law and Herm's emphasis on a sounder pass defense scheme. He's only this high because he's sure to have good value after one of his up weeks. You think Vick is too low? He kills you during the weeks he doesn’t run and you have to play him all the time to get those running points, because there’s no predicting when they’ll come.

Late Rounds

20. Philip Rivers, Chargers
21. Chris Simms, Bucs
22. J.P. Losman, Bills
23. Byron Leftwich, Jaguars
24. Steve McNair, Ravens
25. David Carr, Texans
26. Mark Brunell, Redskins
27. Charlie Frye, Browns
28. Chad Pennington, Jets
29. Aaron Brooks, Raiders
30. Alex Smith, Niners
31. Rex Grossman, Bears
32. Matt Leinart, Cardinals
33. Billy Volek, Titans
34. Kerry Collins, Titans
35. Vince Young, Titans
36. Jason Campbell, Redskins
37. Andrew Walter, Raiders
38. Brian Griese, Bears
39. Kyle Boller, Ravens
40. Joey Harrington
41. Anthony Wright, Bengals
42. Kelly Holcomb, Bills

Chris Simms has some good peripherals. He’s accurate, which is the most important thing about playing at this level. Rivers is totally unproven and will be overdrafted in most places because owners will discount the risk that he’ll struggle mightily. Maybe we’re telescoping too much risk in this assessment, but the Chargers didn’t throw enough last year. Antonio Gates is the best red-zone weapon in the NFL and he had just 12 red-zone targets last year, which is a joke.

Why so relatively high on the Bills QB? Steve Fairchild is the offensive coordinator and he’s such a madman with the passing game that he nearly got into a fistfight with running back coach Wilbert Montgomery last year in St. Louis after Martz left. Anyone who’d rather fight than run is a guy we want calling plays for our fantasy QB. Alas, Losman sure looks like he stinks. Holcomb was the NFL’s most accurate passer last year, however.

Brunell might end up being a poor-man’s Trent Green in Al Sauders’ offense, but the results this summer have just been poor. Also, Washington has one of the league’s most stingy defenses (and maybe the league’s best defensive coordinator). We like second-year man Jason Campbell but, more importantly, so does the Redskins' staff.

Aaron Brooks? His biggest fans this year will readily admit he stinks. The Raiders know this, too, of course. Andrew Walter is Al Davis’ kind of QB and is being groomed for action ASAP. He’s 6-foot-6 with a mad-bomber kind of arm. He’s also in his second year, so could come quickly.

I might stash Alex Smith this year as a pocket pick just because everyone was so appropriately horrified by his performance last year. He can’t be this bad unless the Niners are completely incompetent in assessing talent. Show them some faith and be a contrarian and hope for a Eli Manning-kind of turnaround.