Visit Featured Client Sites for Live Content
Fantasy Football: SNY.tv Michigan Live ProJo.com Rocky Mountain News
Fantasy Baseball: SNY.tv Michigan Live,
New York Sports: SNY.TV
Running Backs
By Michael Salfino
Updated 9/3, 8 p.m. EST
2006 Running Back Rankings
Key Running Back Stats:
Inside-the-Five Runs
Team First-Down Run/Pass Percentages
Team Red Zone Run/Pass Percentages
Team Overall Run/Pass Percentages
Team Red Zone Possessions
The Holy Trinity
1. Larry Johnson, Chiefs
2. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers
3. Shaun Alexander, Seahawks
If you’re lucky enough to draft any three of these studs, you’re in great shape. Why LJ No. 1? He was the best last year when starting. We don’t expect Shaun Alexander to convert 17-of-24 inside-the-five runs again. Plus, Alexander does nothing as a receiver (75 receiving yards in ’05). He gets the edge over Tomlinson because LT has been banged up a little the past couple of years and has endured an historically severe workload. Does that mean he’s a greater injury risk in ’06? Yes. Of course, this doesn’t mean he’ll get injured, just that about 400 touches for five straight years is an unprecedented workload. So, you’re not paranoid if you remember back to 2001 when Edgerrin James cracked after just under 2.5 years of this kind of use.
Other First Round Picks
4. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins
5. Steven Jackson, Rams
6. Rudi Johnson, Bengals
7. Edgerrin James, Cardinals
8. LaMont Jordan, Raiders
9. Willis McGahee, Bills
Notice I didn’t say “first-round VALUES.” But, in the running-back crazy portion of every fantasy draft, you can live with yourself after tabbing any of the above as your first pick.
We look for backs who are young enough to sustain productivity and who are guaranteed to get goal-line carries. James is a borderline call here, as he is under 30 but has far too many miles. However, he is guaranteed to get all the goal-line looks. He’ll also be on the field during most third-downs. And he’ll never see eight men in the box given Arizona’s top-shelf perimeter weapons (Boldin and Fitzgerald). In fact, James is the only Hall of Fame back ever who will have spent his entire career without seeing a safety in the box on normal down and distance.
Brown and Jackson are concessions to youth, even though the Dolphins only generated nine inside-the-five plays for Brown and Ricky Williams last year. Jackson also only had 11, but was solid in converting (45.5 percent). Rudi Johnson won’t win your league for you, but he has the highest floor of all the backs and really came on in the second-half last year. The lack of TDs during the first-half of ’05 was just a fluke based on lack of goal-line opportunities on the team with the most red-zone possessions in the NFL last year (62).
Jordan is on a bad team with a shaky line and QB, but the receivers will keep pressure off him at the line of scrimmage and he was targeted in the passing game more than any back in football last year. Hopefully, the new staff will continue to utilize him as a receiver to a similar degree. McGahee is being overlooked because of his poor 2005. But I’m betting that goal-line looks are more important than efficiency and if he gets 20-plus again this year (the league leaders last year, James and Mike Anderson, had only 25), he’ll generate far more TDs.
Second-Round Picks
10. Cadillac Williams, Bucs
11. Tiki Barber, Giants
12. Mike Bell, Broncos
13. Clinton Portis, Redskins
14. Kevin Jones, Lions
15. Brian Westbrook, Eagles
16. Willie Parker, Steelers
17. Reuben Droughns, Browns
18. Frank Gore, Niners
This grouping assumes a worst-case scenario of a 12-team league with 18 RBs gone in the first 24 picks, which is possible. Some of these guys are going in round one, many in round three, but all are guys you can live with as No. 2 running backs (on a sliding scale of happiness) in deeper leagues. I’m no longer trying to talk people out of taking part in these interminable running back runs at the end of round one and beginning of round two. If you wait until the end of round three/early round four to take a back, you’re looking 25 or 30 guys down your list. That’s too long to wait.
Drafters are under the illusion every year that there are 20 or so fantasy backs that will help them. But each year only about 15 actually return close to an early-round investment. This is our best guess as to who these guys will be.
Why are we so down on Williams, who is about five-slots higher on most cheat sheets? He had two inside-the-five plays last year and just six scores. With Alstott back, he’ll continue to generate fantasy points the hard way, with yards and longer TDs. Tiki Barber is the consensus No. 4 pick. He was great last year. Curtis Martin was great in 2004, too. Didn’t help him in 2005, when Father Time predictably blindsided him (he always catches up). Does a similar fate lie in wait for Tiki? Probably. The workload the last four years is ridiculous. He’s 31. And Brandon Jacobs got more goal-line looks last year and will again in ’06.
Mike Bell is Mike Shanahan's latest surprise. When he names a starter this early in camp, he usually sticks with it. Bell was an undrafted free agent, however, so there is significant risk that he'll fail to produce. But Shanahan gets all of his backs to produce. Mike was outplayed by Tatum in the battle of the Bells in preseason Week 3, so project him to be Mike Anderson 2005, which is decent in a tough year for RBs (at least from how it looks in August).
Portis doesn’t have the build to be a workhorse. But he is one anyway. But the injury risk given his lack of physical stature and his paltry goal-line totals and struggles in converting (4-for-15 on inside-the-five plays last year) forces us to downgrade him more than most. (Note that I wrote this before his status in the opener was jeapordized by a shoulder injury that could hamper him all season.) Duckett is in town now, which leads one to think the injury is more serious and Portis has just lost all goal-line carries.
Jones is a boom or bust guy. He’s working on his receiving skills, but the Lions drafted Brian Calhoun to fill that role. Calhoun does not pose a threat to Jones on first and second down, however. And there’s no one else for Mike Martz to turn to on the goal-line. Martz has had great success maximizing the fantasy production of running backs, though Jones is clearly no Marshall Faulk, so don’t go crazy with our projections.
Westbrook will break down if given more than 20 touches and game and you need those touches from your No. 1 fantasy RB. He’s much more valuable in distance scoring and point-per-catch leagues, as he averages only about a half-dozen goal-line plays per year, most of them as a receiver. He's out the entire preseason, but the Eagles are still saying he'll be back when the games count. But I don't like them talking to Stephen Davis.
Parker is reportedly going to get a crack as goal-line runner, but I can't see him having success given his home-run mentality; he's totally unproven in the role, with just one inside-the-five carry in his career. But the Steelers seemingly believe, as they've just rewarded him with a long-term contract. I do believe Parker is going to be exposed with Roethlisberger out following the appendectomy, but Big Ben shouldn't miss much time.
Reuben Droughns is very uninspiring, however he did run well for long stretches last year. The Browns were unable to generate any success in the red zone and, especially, near the goal line. Gore is having a great camp and has made Kevan Barlow such an afterthought that Barlow was traded to the Jets to replace his fellow Pittsburgh alumnus, Curtis Martin. Droughns and Gore don't inspire, but they are every-down and goal-line backs, nothing to sneeze at no matter how bad the supporting offensive cast.
Third-, fourth-round reaches
19. Reggie Bush, Saints
20. Chester Taylor, Ravens
21. Joseph Addai, Colts
Desperate times call for desperate measures in 12-team and larger leagues.
Bush is a committee back. Maybe Deuce McAllister gets hurt again or is slow to recover from the torn ACL. But that’s a lot to wish for before Round 3. Chester Taylor is being threatened by Mewelde Moore, a fantasy favorite who has never impressed coaches with toughness. I do believe that Taylor has some upside while providing a pretty high floor because he’s completely outperformed Jamal Lewis the past two years on a bad Ravens offense. Why can’t he average 4.5 yards as the starter on a Vikings team with a better offensive line? Why Addai? Still like him even though he hasn't showed anything in the preseason games. Neither has
Dominic
Rhodes. Addai can pass block much better than Rhodes. And if the Colts were comfortable with Rhodes starting, they wouldn’t have drafted a back in the first round. So, the question isn’t whether Addai will be the Indy starter, just when. The Colts have never shown a desire to use a committee, even when James was injured. They like having base personnel on the field for all plays, to keep the run-pass option viable and the defenses off guard. But expect a committee until about Halloween. Once Addai establishes himself as a starter, he projects as a difference maker in the Colts offense. When you’re reaching for a running back at this stage of the draft (or even earlier in most leagues), you need upside.
Rounds 4 through 7
22. Thomas Jones, Bears
23. Warrick Dunn, Falcons
24. Fred Taylor, Jaguars
25. Wali Lundy, Texans
26. Ahman Green, Packers
27. Jamal Lewis, Ravens
28. Kevan Barlow, Jets
29. Julius Jones, Cowboys
30. Corey Dillon, Patriots
31. Dominic Rhodes, Colts
32. DeShaun Foster, Panthers
33. Laurence Maroney, Patriots
34. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
35. Cedric Benson, Bears
36. Marion Barber, Cowboys
37. Tatum Bell, Broncos
38. Deuce McAllister, Saints
39. LeDale White, Titans
40. Travis Henry, Titans
41. Chris Brown, Titans
42. Brandon Jacobs, Giants
What do all these guys have in common? It’s possible, on a sliding scale of probability, that any of them could crack top 15 fantasy running backs of 2005. This is the standard we’re looking for when taking a back in these rounds. There are far more guys in this tier this year, a transitional year for running backs, than in past seasons. So, let’s very briefly make the case for and against.
We flipped Thomas Jones and Benson again. Benson left a game early and missed a mandatory team meeting. We know that because his teammates leaked it. That means they've decided Jones should start. Benson is pouting for the second time this camp about being disliked. If a job is being contested, being the more responsible employee is a huge factor, especially in the military-like NFL. The rest might seem like gossip, but think how this type of situation would play out in your work environment (and you don't have people who need to block for you to do your job). We had liked Benson because the Bears drafted him fifth overall to start. But Jones was very solid last year in a one-dimensional offense. ones did it last year. Yes, we're uncertain. You should be, too. The second one off the board is likely to be a good value. Warrick Dunn did it last year, too. But the circus leaves town for everyone, eventually. The carnival barkers are looking at their watch and the concession stand is closed now for the diminutive, graying Dunn (pronounced Done). And you'll end up being sorry if he gets those goal-line T.J. Duckett carries (still unlikely), because something will soon snap. Why can’t Fred Taylor use his 230-pound frame effectively on the goal line? We don't know. But he never has and why will he start now with his career on the downside? With Greg Jones out for the year (ACL), Taylor's price has increased, but no one should be excited about owning him. Lundy, a rookie, is one-cut runner in the Broncos' mold (important with former Denver OC Kubiak now in charge in Houston). Ahman Green may be done, but is still the starter and running game and run-blocking guru Alex Gibbs' system has been imported to Green Bay at both the head coach and coordinator levels. My friend Chris Liss of RotoWire and the XM Network thinks something bad happened to Jamal Lewis in prison. Barlow is another guy in a bad offense. But Chad Pennington could return to pre-injury form. The line could gel. Those two are unlikely. But Barlow is a good receiver and likely to get every-down chores on a team that will likely be inept, but competitive, which could mean a lot of touches. The Jets aren't playing Barlow $2.7 million this year to stand on the sidelines. I don’t want to get all “Oz” on you, but maybe he was violated with some lead that no one bothered removing from his ass. The coaching staff still believes and so Lewis is worth taking in this slot in the almost irrational hope that he recaputures most of his 2003 form. Julius Jones was so good in the second-half of 2004. Last year, he was supplanted by unheralded Marion Barber and I get the sense the Cowboys see the glass with Jones as being half empty, as he was shopped to the Jets this spring. The Cowboys said they will play both backs, though Jones will start. Corey Dillon was 10-for-12 on goal-line carries last year, the best percentage in the NFL. There’s about a 30 percent chance he has one more great year in him, though your league mates will calculate the odds being much better than that. Dominic Rhodes enters the season as the starter, which means a lot, though not nearly as much as your fellow owners think. 2001 was a looooong time ago; that's a generation in football years. Rhodes will be long gone by this stage of your draft, but that's because he's the starter in Week 1, which is what we wanted to happen because wwe want to draft Addai way cheaper than where we have him ranked. Tatum Bell, we wish you were Clinton Portis. We can see it so clearly. Alas, Mike Shanahan apparently cannot, as first Ron Dayne and then Mike Bell was moved to No. 1 on the depth chart in August. LeDale White self-destructed during the draft process, but his old college coach took a flyer on him. Why can’t he be the top five talent people though he was in January? His main competition is Travis Henry, who is reportedly opening the season as starter, not Chris Brown. DeAngelo Williams is another “when” guy. If you were a coach, would you look to replace a starter who is always hurt? I sure would. That’s too bad for DeShaun Foster, who is talented. Foster is a poor goal-line runner, too. Wouldn’t it be funny if Reggie Bush got hurt and that gave Deuce McAllister another opportunity for every down work. Yes, the coaches say they’ll play them both. But you can’t play two tailbacks, so if one is a WR or a FB, the fact that they’re both “starting” is a technicality. Laurence Maroney: KEEPER ALERT!!!! Maroney will have value this year even in the unlikely event that Dillon stays healthy and productive. Domanick Davis has been removed because his knee bruise caused the Texans to place him on injured reserve (cutting him would kill their cap), which ends his season. I've said for weeks that the organization has been questioning his toughness. Jacobs looks too big and upright to us, but the Giants front office whispers that he’s a future star. That’s good enough for us, given the guaranteed goal-line looks and decent chance that Tiki Barber finally cracks under the pressure of that heavy workload.
Best of the Rest
43. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
44. Jerious Norwood, Falcons
45. Musa Smith, Ravens
46. Michael Turner, Chargers
47. T.J. Duckett, Falcons
48. Adrian Peterson, Bears
49. Verron Haynes, Steelers
You’re looking to guess here at which guys will shine the brightest if given real reps in games. Maurice Jones-Drew is REALLY short, but not in any way small. He’s a unique player who probably won’t make it. But I think he hits it big in a Joe Morris-kind of way if a coach takes a chance and Jack Del Rio at least says he believes. Jones-Drew is short, but has Earl Campbell Thighs (which Kim Carnes also cut in the 1970s, but thankfully never released). Greg Jones' torn ACL opens the door a crack more for Jones-Drew. As for the rookie Norwood, who can fly, always do the hedge play against the old RB, especially if the Falcons are dumb enough to ram him into a wall of human flesh near the goal-line. Move him way up if you're in a keeper league. Musa Smith had a good summer and one great preseason game and is the anti-Lewis play, not Mike Anderson, who is being moved to fullback. Michael Turner has a little Larry Johnson in him if he gets an opportunity and L.T. has a lot of miles for such a young back. I still like that Frankenstein T.J. Duckett, even though he’s probably too large to shine should Portis' shoulder prove too painful. He'll at least get goal-line action in a decent offense. Peterson is the Bears only healhty running back as the season opens. Haynes appears to be the ghoul play for those who don't believe that Parker can succeed as a goal-line runner and/or is an injury risk given his lack of size.
|
