2005 FINAL: Second-Tier Backs Plentiful

UPDATED: September 4, 2005, Clarifying Henry/Brown, Bell/Anderson

September 2, lowering Deuce McAllister for Saints uncertainty.

August 30, Deleting Cedric Cobbs.

August 29, Revising Cedric Benson and Jerome Bettis. Adding Willie Parker.

August 28, lowering/revising Tatum Bell, raising/revising Mike Anderson, updating Curtis Martin, updating Fred Taylor.

August 26, adding William Green.

August 25, raising Melwelde Moore.

August 24, adding a fourth tier, adding Stephen Davis, lowering DeShaun Foster, removing Eric Shelton, adding Thomas Jones.

August 22, lowering Tatum Bell (again!), raising Jerome Bettis, raising Mike Anderson, lowering Cedric Benson, removing Frank Gore, adding Vernand Morency.

August 14, lowering Tatum Bell, LaMont Jordan, Ahman Green, DeShaun Foster; adding Eric Shelton and revising Rudi Johnson.

These profiles will be updated each week in light of injuries and other preseason developments. So be sure to keep checking back through Labor Day.

Tire tread is the most important consideration when projecting an NFL running back.

We're wary of backs over 30 or who have logged over 1,700 carries, a number exceeded by only 34 men in NFL history. Here's the list of runners still competing for starting jobs who are over 30: Priest Holmes (Chiefs), Tiki Barber (Giants), Stephen Davis (Panthers), Corey Dillon (Patriots), Warrick Dunn (Falcons), Curtis Martin (Jets), and Mike Anderson (Broncos).

In addition, Edgerrin James is over our mileage warning, as he's tallied 1,700-plus carries at just age 27. (Now you know why the Colts didn't give him that long-term deal he covets.) 

Last year, six of nine 30-and-over running backs ended up being losing investments relative to where they were drafted. And that's better success than most years.

Our rankings are largely based on how players faired last year in three key stats: inside-the-five plays, plays per TD and plays per game. Plays are all plays when the player ran or was the intended receiver. Keep in mind that running backs typically catch a very high percentage of passes thrown to them.  (Below the rankings/profiles are the complete charts for each of those categories.)

As with all positions, it's important to pay particular attention to players switching systems. It's obvious to note those who have switched teams. Less obvious are changes in offensive coordinators, which can bring dramatically different systems to players who have remained with their 2004 teams.

Here's a quick overview of the major changes (those not included, such as Arizona, are omitted because the head coach remains very involved in the offense or the new OC had a very active role in the offense in 2004).

Chicago hired Ron Turner, who likes to run an offense similar to his brother, Norv (big back, deep passing game). Cleveland has imported Maurice Carthon as OC from Dallas, where Bill Parcells called the plays. In Detroit, Ted Tollner is now the OC after leaving the Niners; but Tollner is regarded as a master of the downfield passing game since his days coaching with Don Coryell of Chargers fame. The Jaguars look to open it by bringing in USC's QB coach Carl Smith, who says he will emphasize running and deep passing. Scott Linehan brings the Vikings offense to Miami, of course with radically different personnel. The Vikings promoted offensive line coach Steve Loney, who is preaching a more balanced offense (meaning more runs). The Patriots will rely on Bill Belichick to run the offense, which he also did when serving as the head coach in Cleveland (with limited success). Mike Heimerdinger brings the shotgun and more downfield passing to the Jets after leaving the Titans, who replaced him with USC passing guru Norm Chow. The Niners have brought in Mike McCarthy from the Saints, who have promoted QB coach Mike Sheppard and promised a stronger commitment to the running game.

(Note: The players are ranked in tiers in addition to being ranked numerically. The former is more important, as players within the same tier offer similar draft value even if they are separated by multiple slots. Conversely, players in different tiers offer much different anticipated value even if they are right next to one another numerically.)

First Tier

1. LaDainian Tomlinson (Chargers): Some quibble with his decline in running efficiency last year and the steep decline in yardage (about 600 less yards than in 2003). Tomlinson wasn’t able to increase productivity along with the rest of the San Diego offense because of a lingering groin injury that reduced his yards per carry from nearly five before to about 3.5 after. Tomlinson is the No. 1 back because he gets the ball inside the five more than anyone (31 times in ’04), is seventh in fewest plays per TD (22.8, third best if you include only every-down starters) and trails only Priest Holmes and Julius Jones in plays per game (27.3). There’s no need for Tomlinson to catch 100 balls like he did in ’04 (we warned you he wouldn’t last year even before we knew just how good Antonio Gates was). But the Chargers passing game was so deadly in '04 (third in fewest passing attempts per TD), that it’s going to be very difficult for defenses to gang up on Tomlinson with extra defenders in the box. A healthy Tomlinson will find his way through these natural openings for more long gainers in ’05. Remember to get the Michael Turner handcuff because Turner could be very interesting should Tomlinson get hurt (and every RB is an injury risk).

2. Shaun Alexander (Seahawks): The only other totally clean running back. He’s young enough, durable, consistently productive, on a decent and diversified offensive team, gets plenty of touches everywhere but especially where it counts (fourth most with 23 carries inside the five)…. The deal he struck with Seattle before reporting to training camp is good news for fantasy owners. Seattle agreed not to franchise him again so he is definitely playing for free agent riches, which will make him highly motivated. Fantasy owners also have to like his carping about not being given a chance to gain the two yards he needed to beat Curtis Martin for the rushing championship. Alexander did deserve the ball more, as he finished just 10th among running backs in plays per game (Martin was fifth). The one knock here is that he only had 23 catches for 170 yards last year, which hurts the yardage totals. Again, though, the Seahawks leveraged Alexander’s receptions very nicely, as four of them resulted in short TDs.

Second Tier

3. Willis McGahee (Bills): Is J.P. Losman any good? Well, if he's terrible, he'll be replaced in short order by Kelly Holcomb, who is inconsistent but competent. If Losman struggles but shows signs and/or if the Bills win primarily with defense early, McGahee will be adversely affected. The former Hurricane star did great in all the key stats, especially considering he didn't start the first month of the season. (His plays per game is deflated by his backup duty the first month as he was one of the league's top workhorses as a starter.) McGahee did generate a lot of points late in games against tired defenses. But that's not unusual for big running backs and there's no reason to think he won't be able to do the same in 2005. The Bills receivers are good enough to keep safeties out of run defense, which is key. But, if not for the Holcomb insuance, McGahee would be further down this list because the great risk of hitching your wagon to a QB with virtually no professional playing experience.

4. Julius Jones (Cowboys): The NFL leader in touches per game. Jones also would have finished  in the top five in inside-the-five plays if his stats were extrapolated to a full season. He’s small and owners worry that free-agent import Anthony Thomas will steal goal-line carries. But Bill Parcells typically gives the goal-line carries to his primary running back, no matter his size (witness Curtis Martin and Joe Morris). Jones also has big-time, home-run ability, as we noted in our profiles last year. As with Tatum Bell, there’s a lot of tread left on these tires.

5. Priest Holmes (Chiefs): Drafting Holmes will also cost you a fifth-round pick or so to pick up Larry Johnson, who at least one owner in your league is going to have in the top 25-to-30 running backs (for good reason). But that first and fifth round pick is virtually guaranteed to get you the most rushing TDs from one of your running back slots. Holmes is likely to get hurt again. He’s likely to suffer an age-based decline in skills (he’s going to be 32). What’s unclear is whether declining ability will matter much given the Chiefs offensive line and overall offensive skill. If you’re not able to land Johnson, move him down to the bottom of this tier, as that’s how great the injury risk is.

6. Kevin Jones (Lions): Since he coached the Niners with Garrison Hearst at his peak, Steve Mariucci has driven fantasy owners crazy by refusing to involve his running backs near paydirt. Last year, the Lions put the ball in Joey Harrington's hands 59 percent of the time in the red zone (third highest rate in the NFL). Harrington wasn't even any good last year and the Lions had a paucity of targets. This year, Harrington is expected to step up (at least the Lions expect it) and the receiving corps is as well fortified in terms of resources devoted to it as any in the history of the league. I'm not as concerned about Jones being 26th among NFL running backs with merely 18.8 plays per game. In the last five games of '04, Jones averaged 27 touches per game, which would have placed him in the league's top five. The 220-pound Jones has enough size to run effectively near the goal line, but will he get enough chances?

7. Edgerrin James (Colts): The only sub-30-year-old back with 1,700-plus carries (only 34 men in NFL history have exceeded that total). The NFL's worst goal-line runner and among the worst ever. Just 5-for-21 converting runs inside the five last year. And this is with defenses completely zoned in on stopping Peyton Manning. Why the Colts even bother to give him the ball down there is a mystery. James should again pile up the yardage, as defenses will position their safeties far out of range to be factors in stopping the run. You'll be able to count the times some masochistic coordinator puts eight men in the box on one hand. Near the goal line, though, things are naturally crowded and James can't find room to operate. James is likely playing for his financial future this year, which is nice in that it ensures maximum effort.

8. Domanick Davis (Texans): I spoke to a Houston scout last year who was down on Davis. Maybe he was a lone wolf. This was also near mid-season, when Davis was just rounding into the form that would make him a fantasy star during the second half of 2004. The Texans used a third-round pick on Vernand Morency, who is similarly sized and showed enough in August to demand a Davis handcuff. This, of course, was after the Texans signed Davis to a long-term contract (not that any NFL contract is ever truly "long term").  At his best, Davis can be a Thurman Thomas-type, piling up catches and receiving yards to go with respectable rushing yardage totals. But as what happened to Thomas courtesy of Kenneth Davis, the Texans will look to lighten Domanick's load in '05.

9. Ahman Green (Packers): We dropped him upon reflection of his always marginal chances to score inside the five (just 11 last year). He averaged 4.5 per carry last year in what everyone agrees was a disappointing fantasy season. That YPC doesn’t suggest a significant decline in skill. The problem inside the five isn't so much Brett Favre passing there (Green Bay only threw 50 percent of the time in the red zone), but the Packers desire to involve other backs in close. Green needs about twice as many plays inside the five in ’05 to generate 15 TDs. Green was also 20th last year with only 20.8 plays per game, about five less plays per game than he should be receiving. Short of devastating injury, last year’s numbers are about as bad as it could get in ’05 and that’s a pretty high floor.

10. LaMont Jordan (Raiders): Dropped slightly because of Norv Turner saying that Zack Crockett is the goal-line back. The Jets did everything they could to keep Jordan. But they couldn't guarantee him playing time, so he bolted within seconds of the beginning of the free agent signing period. Eyebrows were raised when Norv Turner said that Zack Crockett could get the ball inside the five. That would be silly, even considering Crockett's great success in that regard. The 230-pound Jordan is a powerful inside runner. He also has the quicks to turn the corner and take it all the way to the house. Jordan stood out at Jets practices as a receiver, but never really had the chance to demonstrate those skills on Sunday. With the Raiders receivers, Jordan could get 1,000 yards on draw plays this year. Okay, I kid. But you see the point. Norv Turner isn't going to abandon the running game. There's a chance here for 1,800 total yards and a TD per game. If the reality is merely 75 percent of that, he's well worth a second-round pick.

11. Deuce McAllister (Saints): The Saints are nomads with more important things on their minds than football in 2005. Sure, they can rise above it. But who among us could deal with such distractions without comprimising our professional aptitude? The good news is the Saints want to run more. The bad news is it’s because Aaron Brooks is mediocre. Brooks doesn’t display the consistency needed to keep the chains moving and running backs are very reliant on the QBs ability to sustain drives so that they pile up carries. While some pro-rate his 2004 numbers in light of the games he missed due to his ankle sprain, you need to remember that McAllister was very inefficient in scoring in 2003 and was again sub-par in ’04, with a 20th best TD every 35.3 plays. And that’s with finishing seventh best with 21 plays inside the five.

12. Clinton Portis (Redskins): He's still explosive despite his disappointing 2004. Portis showed some signs of life in the second half, when Joe Gibbs adjusted his running game to feature more of the plays that Portis ran so successfully in Denver. His upside this year lies in whether that adjustment will be cemented in '05 and whether it will again prove successful. Joe Gibbs credentials as an offensive genius have been severely tarnished. There's also a chance that Portis will be lose goal-line action, as he tallied just 16 inside-the-five plays last year. (Proof that Washington was indeed inside the five at some point in '04.) Bottom line: Portis wasn't merely a product of the Denver system, but the system and supporting cast are lacking in Washington. Expect improvement from last year, but forget about him emerging as the fantasy force he was for the Broncos.

13. Curtis Martin (Jets): Yes, he's over 30. If he wasn't, he'd be a top five overall pick off last year. Mike Heimerdinger likes to run it in close even more than Paul Hackett did, as the Titans were top five in percentage of red zone carries for running backs. So expect Martin to again be top ten in inside-the-five plays. He could even top last year's total, as the Jets don't have a reliable short-yardage back (Jordan's replacement, Derrick Blaylock, is even smaller than Martin). Plus, the future Hall of Famer has reached icon status, which makes it very unlikely he'll be shut out of short-yardage glory. There's serious injury risk here, as there is with any geriatric back. Blaylock must be drafted by every Martin owner. Here's why I like Martin more than Dillon: you can handcuff Curtis with Derrick Blaylock and be well insured. There's no clear handcuff for Corey.

14. Corey Dillon (Patriots): Another member of the Over 30 club. Martin gets a slight edge in that he is likely to be more involved in the passing game than is Dillon. Though Dillon looks like a power back, he doesn't run like one, as he continues to struggle near paydirt. Last year, Dillon was second in inside-the-five plays yet finished 12th in fewest plays per TD. Obviously, those numbers should correlate more closely. Young Cedric Cobbs was supposed to be the Dillon handcuff, but he was injured throughout camp and was released in the final cutdown. That leaves Kevin Faulk, who isn't sturdy enough to carry the load in the event of an injury to Dillon. The lack of a viable fantasy handcuff is why we have Martin ahead of Dillon, contrary to conventional wisdom.

15. Jamal Lewis (Ravens): I understand this is a low ranking. Here are my reasons: he missed off-season conditioning when he was thrown in the Federal penitentiary system, he doesn't get involved at all as a receiver, he's not a good inside-the-five runner (which limits his TD upside), he's so big and takes so much punishment that I fear he will age rapidly (in an Earl Campbell-like way). When Lewis was a fantasy force two years ago, he had a lot of long runs, which is unusual for a 245-pounder. Last year, he was 22nd in inside-the-five plays and 22nd in fewest plays per TD. That number suggests that all Lewis needs is more opportunities, which could be reasonably projected with the overall improvements many anticipate from the Ravens offense (which couldn't be much worse).

16. Rudi Johnson (Bengals): Last year's No. 1 pick, Chris Perry, is having a good summer and threatenign to steal more than third-down plays from Johnson, who just doesn't do anything as a receiver. Johnson is a mediocre short-yardage back despite his reputation. The best way to eyeball that on our charts is to see if a player ranks higher or lower in plays-per-TD than he does in inside-the-five plays. Roughly, the higher your ranking in plays-per-TD relative to your ranking in red zone plays, the better you are are converting opportunities in close. Johnson needs to be a better goal-line runner to reward his owners because he doesn't have the speed even for moderately long TD runs.

Third Tier

17. Steven Jackson (Rams): There's hope here in that Jackson is at least the anointed starter. Marshall Faulk took a paycut and accepted backup status last spring. But Faulk is such a legend that it's hard to see him having a typical backup role. This will likely cost Jackson a half-dozen chances that the other starters get. All told, the Rams gave their backs 21 inside-the-five plays last year. Faulk wil get some, so Jackson's upside is middle-of-the-pack in that category, limiting his TD potential.

18. J.J. Arrington (Cardinals): Our first rookie was a mere second-round pick. But Arrington has the clearest path to being his team's feature back. The Cardinals offense could be interesting and they play in a weak division. But rookies are very speculative. I will say that the reports that he's too undersized to be a feature back are silly. At 5-9, 214, Arrington is as big as other backs those same draft gurus define as "well sized." That's the echo chamber that is draft scouting reports. Don't ever buy into them fully because everyone's information can be sourced to the same one or two people.

19. Kevan Barlow (Niners): I had high hopes for Barlow last year and he disappointed. But you can again see the correlation in the scoring: 24th in inside-the-five plays, 28th in plays per TD. Barlow needs more opportunities near the goal line and that's not likely with the Niners very likely breaking in a rookie QB. Barlow owners need to protect themselves by drafting third-round rookie Frank Gore, a fomer Hurricane with ACL history on both knees.

20. Brian Westbrook (Eagles): Look at those inside-the-five stats. Westbrook had six plays in close, 31st among running backs. Yet he finished 14th in attempts-per-TD due to an uncanny knack for scoring in the passing game. Westbrook is a much better play in real life than this ranking suggests. But it's always unwise to count on a running back who needs to generate a large percentage of his points as a receiver. Will his opportunities in close increase now that Correll Buckhalter is again out for the year? No likely, as the Eagles were reportedly scouring the waiver wire for a short-yardage back in late August.

21. Tiki Barber (Giants): Barber has an extra strike against him compared to the other 30-year-old backs. The Giants drafted gigantic 270-pound Brandon Jacobs to be a goal-line back. So unless Barber gets a number of long-distance scores and receiving TDs, it's hard to project more than a half-dozen TDs. Barber is also about 200 pounds and very reliant on speed and quickness, the first things that go when a back is on the wrong side of the mountain. Barber had a flukey good year, given he was a lead back on a team with rotten QB play and a sub-par offensive line. Eli Manning did not show signs of dramatic progress this summer and then suffered an elbow injury.

22. Fred Taylor (Jaguars): If you're scratching your head about Barber's ranking, ask what's the difference between him and Taylor. Forget last year's numbers. What's the difference in '05 assuming Brandon Jacobs gets most of the short TDs? Not much if anything. Yet Barber is going to be drafted rounds higher everywhere. Taylor is younger and bigger than Barber, too. The TD rate is a joke, I know (one every 106 plays). But there's always hope that a guy can score when he generates yardage like Taylor and weighs 230-plus pounds. Monitor his knee in August, as his injury to it last year was pretty severe.

23. Ronnie Brown (Dolphins): He gets the job all to himself the first four games, while Ricky Williams serves his suspension. Brown is the best get among rookies for those in keeper leagues, as he has the size and speed needed to be an impact runner. Plus, he's going to be playing for a coach who wants to emphasize defense and will likely strive to limit mistakes on offense.

Fourth Tier

24. Tatum Bell (Broncos): Mike Anderson did everything except leap tall buildings in a single bound this summer, cementing his status as opening-day starter. So why continue to rank Bell higher? Anderson is too old and, despite the 93-yard scamper against the Colts January defense on August 27th, too slow. It's a long year. Anderson is unlikely to sustain a starter's workload given his age and injury history. The feeling here is that Bell wins teams fantasy championships come December, not Anderson, who will be benched or in street clothes. When Bell finally gets his chance, he will come flying out of the gate. Remember how good he looked playing with a third-degree shoulder separation last December. CLARIFICATION: To ensure a better value, wait for Anderson to be drafted and then take Bell.

25. Mike Anderson (Broncos): The case for Anderson is that he's not really 32 because he didn't get drafted until he was 26. It's the low mileage argument we heard last year with Tyrone Wheatley (with predictable results). Don't buy in. But he needs to be picked here as long as he's No. 1 on the Broncos depth chart. After Saturday's coast-to-coast scamper, he'll go much higher. Let him.

26. Larry Johnson (Chiefs): More than the best insurance policy in fantasy football. There's a significant chance that Holmes will again get hurt. If (when?) that happens, Johnson becomes the best back in fantasy football. Remember, he finished second behind T.J. Duckett (merely a goal-line back) in plays per TD and played at a 2,200-yard, 32-TD pace as a starter the last month of '04.

27. Carnell Williams (Bucs): Williams wowed Jon Gruden at the Senior Bowl practices. He'll have a big role to play at some point but has to contend with Michael Pittman (who was very effective last year) and the returning Mike Alstott (who is likely to be given goal-line carries). As Pittman is 30 and Alstott far past his prime, Williams is very attractive in keeper leagues.

28. Cedric Benson (Bears): Finally signed on August 29th. Coaches hate holdouts and this was the summer's ugliest. Benson isn't as fast as Brown. Thomas Jones was told he'd still be the starter when the season starts, but it's hard to imagine he'll hold off Benson for long. Losing Grossman hurts the offense badly, as the Bears will try to make due with rookie Kyle Orton, who was benched late last year by Purdue. The Bears are expected to have a good defense and Jeff Blake could be mediocre if Orton crashes and burns. Draft Benson with an eye toward the second-half.

29. Travis Henry (Titans): As my friend and colleague Scott Pianowski noted to me backstage, Henry has the easiest road to fantasy success in the Titans backfield. The only thing he needs to happen is for Chris Brown to get hurt. The upright-running Brown is an injury waiting to happen. CLARIFICATION: To ensure a better value, wait for the starting Brown to get drafted and then tab Henry, who will outperform him in 2005.

30. Stephen Davis (Panthers): His microfracture knee surgery (which DeShaun Foster also had) was deemed a success and he returned to practice on August 23rd with the first team. He'll be fresh after missing almost all of 2004, but there's not a lot known about this type of proceedure, especially with 31-year-old backs. Remember, except for his first year as a starter back in 1999, Davis has always had trouble scoring and is not much of a receiving threat. If he's still there 30 backs into your draft, by all means grab him. Otherwise, let someone else play the long odds.

31. Jerome Bettis (Steelers): Duce Staley is likely out until at least October with a bad knee, seemingly expanding Bettis' role as the primary back beyond and-goal situations. But Bettis is nursing a very bad calf injury that will sideline him at least through Week 1. Speedy Wilie Parker is the likely starter in the opener against Tennessee. Bettis will be overdrafted everywhere, as owners try to extrapolate last year's productivity to the extra carries they expect in '05. But there will be diminishing returns due to age (33) and extremely high mileage (3,369 carries).

32. DeShaun Foster (Panthers): He's been living under a dark cloud since his NFL career began. The talent is still there. His broken collarbone from last year shouldn't impact his 2005 season. However, Stephen Davis returned from injury on August 23rd and was immediately returned to the first team.

33. Mewelde Moore (Vikings): Last year, Moore averaged 5.8 per carry and 8.8 per catch with 537 total yards in his three starts. He was far more effective than Michael Bennett last year. Bennett is already nursing a neck injury, though Mike Tice recommitted to him as a starter after declaring him out for Week 1. Think committee here, but Moore can emerge as the leader and be a far cheaper Brian Westbrook-type.

Etc: Guys who could make an impact and who are worth a mid-round pick: Chris Brown (he'll likely break camp as starter but can't survive his upright running style), Warrick Dunn, Michael Bennett (the Vikings backs will have to deal with safeties now after they were taken out of run support by Randy Moss since 1998), T.J. Duckett, Ricky Williams (don't forget he has to serve a four-game suspension), Reuben Droughns, Lee Suggs, Moe Williams (for TD-heavy leagues). Also expect committees in Cleveland and Atlanta (though Dunn is the play in yardage-heavy leagues). A step down from these guys is Thomas Jones because the Bears are likely to be an offensive wasteland again and Jones is now a caretaker. Add William Green to the Cleveland mix (which is a fantasy mess), as he's been a solid citizen for the new regime and Suggs is nursing a high ankle sprain.

Don't forget to draft backups of aging, high-mileage or injury-prone backs: Derrick Blaylock (Curtis Martin), Chester Taylor (Jamal Lewis), Willie Parker (100 yards last year in the final against a tough Bills defense and very explosive if undersized at 208 pounds; he's attractive with Bettis and Staley old and ailing), Kevin Faulk (Corey Dillon, but see the caveat in the Dillon profile), Najeh Davenport (Ahman Green), Dominic Rhodes (nursing a turf toe injury but will still back up Edgerrin James and may be a keeper if James doesn't stay in Indy beyond '05), Maurice Morris (Shaun Alexander). A late pick is wisely invested in Chargers backup Michael Turner, who looks like Natrone Means. The Texans Morency is another good ghoul play, as he'll play some even if Domanick Davis stays healthy.

Inside-The-Five Plays (Rushes, Receptions, Intended Receiver)

Plays Per TD (Rushes, Receptions, Intended Receiver)

Plays Per Game (Rushes, Receptions, Intended Receiver)