Quarterbacks By Michael Salfino

Player Profiles

Quarterbacks Running Backs Wide Receivers/TEs Kickers Defenses Individual Defensive Players Complete Ferris 2005 Ranks

2005 FINAL: Peyton In A League Of His Own

UPDATED: September 2, 2005, lowering Aaron Brooks because of NO uncertainty.

August 30, raise McNabb to pre-T.O. dustup level.

August 22: Lower Kerry Collins and incorporate some statistics courtesy of KC Joyner's research.

August 14, lowering Donovan McNabb and dropping Rex Grossman.

These profiles will be updated each week in light of injuries and other preseason developments. So be sure to keep checking back through Labor Day.

The NFL wanted to boost the passing game last year when it decided to strictly enforce contact rules. Mission accomplished, it would appear. The statistics, especially yards per passing attempt (by far the most important passing number), show a dramatic increase in passing efficiency. Half the league averaged over seven yards per attempt, which in prior years typically had been achieved by no more than one-third of QBs. Amazingly, 12 starting QBs averaged over 7.5 yards per attempt, a figure that's normally met or exceeded by a mere handful of passers.

So, with more QBs performing at such high levels, savvy owners may choose to wait longer than usual before drafting their starting signal caller. There are more than a dozen QBs who you can reasonably project for 25 TD passes. Not a dozen will do so, of course, but expect about as many hits as last year, when nine met or bettered that mark.

Our rankings are largely based on how players faired last year in four key, yet often overlooked, categories: yards per passing attempt (the gold standard for assessing QB effectiveness), red zone usage (how often the QB threw or ran inside the opponents' 20), attempts per TD pass and attempts per game. Below the rankings/profiles are the complete charts for each of those categories.

As with all positions, it's important to pay particular attention to players switching systems. It's obvious to note those who have switched teams. Less obvious are changes in offensive coordinators, which can bring dramatically different systems to players who have remained with their 2004 teams.

Here's a quick overview of the major changes (those not included, such as Arizona, are omitted because the head coach remains very involved in the offense or the new OC had a very active role in the offense in 2004).

Chicago hired Ron Turner, who likes to run an offense similar to his brother, Norv (big back, deep passing game). Cleveland has imported Maurice Carthon as OC from Dallas, where Bill Parcells called the plays. In Detroit, Ted Tollner is now the OC after leaving the Niners; but Tollner is regarded as a master of the downfield passing game since his days coaching with Don Coryell of Chargers fame. The Jaguars look to open it by bringing in USC's QB coach Carl Smith, who says he will emphasize running and deep passing. Scott Linehan brings the Vikings offense to Miami, of course with radically different personnel. The Vikings promoted offensive line coach Steve Loney, who is preaching a more balanced offense (meaning more runs). The Patriots will rely on Bill Belichick to run the offense, which he also did when serving as the head coach in Cleveland (with limited success). Mike Heimerdinger brings the shotgun and more downfield passing to the Jets after leaving the Titans, who replaced him with USC passing guru Norm Chow. The Niners have brought in Mike McCarthy from the Saints, who have promoted QB coach Mike Sheppard and promised a stronger commitment to the running game.

(Note: The players are ranked in tiers in addition to being ranked numerically. The former is more important, as players within the same tier offer similar draft value even if they are separated by multiple slots. Conversely, players in different tiers offer much different anticipated value even if they are right next to one another numerically.)

First Tier

1. Peyton Manning (Colts): I haven't had a single passer alone in the first tier of my QB rankings since Steve Young's heyday. There was nothing fluky about Manning's '04, as he finished No.1 in yards per attempt (YPA), about lapped the field with a TD throw every 10 attempts (think about that for a second). Some analysts quibble with Manning's season by noting he threw 28 TD passes in six games against weak secondaries (Packers, Chiefs, Vikings, Texans, Bears, Lions). But he still threw 19 TD passes in his 10 other games, a 30-TD pace. We won't bother speculating on his strength of schedule this year, because if we knew for sure which teams were going to be good and bad we'd be living in a Vegas penthouse. Manning also threw 19 TDs inside the 10 despite finishing ninth in QB red zone opportunities. You have to wonder why the Colts waste everyone's time with Edgerrin James near paydirt. He's become football's best bomber, with 18 TD passes in just 92 long-ball attempts last year. (Deep passes travel at least 20 yards from scrimmag.) Here's what we know about Manning: great compliment of receivers, ideal conditions every home game, solid running game to keep defenses honest in defending the passing game and a sub-par defense that will force the offense to pile up points. Manning will likely regress to the mean this year. But that's not going to mean 30 TD passes, rather something more like 40.

Second Tier

2. Daunte Culpepper (Vikings): Stop for a second. Look at the tier I've placed him in. Don't draft him right after Peyton. Instead, wait for one of the other QBs in this tier. Yes, Culpepper had one of the top 10 seasons for a QB ever, statistically. In many scoring systems, Culpepper scored more points than Manning. Culpepper led the league in QB runs/passes in the red zone (71 percent!). So, where is the love? It left with No. 84, who now has changed numbers and uniforms. With Randy Moss last season (including the playoffs), Culpepper averaged 330 yards passing with 32 TDs and six INTs. Without him for the seven games he was out or severely limited by injury, Culpepper's totals were 242 yards and 12 TDs. Given that Moss has made studs out of every QB he's ever played with (including Gus Frerotte in '03), there's reason to be skeptical that Daunte can come close to replicating his '04. The Vikings should also have an improved defense. Culpepper led the NFL in "soft yards" passing against prevent defenses in garbage time (384, about 200 more than is reasonable to expect). Less garbage time and a healthy Moe Williams will cause that red zone usage to shrink to 50-to-60 percent. It all adds up to about 1,000 less yards and about 10 less touchdowns in '05.

3. Donovan McNabb (Eagles): Use McNabb as the example for how a superstar WR impacts QB productivity. Culpepper's loss in '05 was McNabb's gain in '04. McNabb needs to be smart enough and team-player enough to realize this and put aside his petty grudge with Owens, who really opened up things downfield, changing Donovan from a dink and dunker to a QB who finished third in the NFL in long-ball attempts and first in yards (completing 35 percent of his deep passes). While I'd prefer a passing QB to a running one any day, McNabb does not utilize his running gift at all, playing as if that's been de-programmed. There are three or four times every game where a defense is just going to give someone with McNabb's legs 15 or 20 yards with its coverage. The trick (and it's a very difficult one to master, I'll grant you) is to take off in those instances. This forces defenses to always be wary of scrambling and obviously negatively impacts their ability to cover. Last year, defenses were wise to ignore McNabb's running threat altogether (which is what the Patriots did in the Super Bowl). The good news is that McNabb has developed into a great pocket passer (8.26 yards per attempt with a TD every 15 passes). McNabb was fifth in red zone use last year because the Eagles lacked reliable inside running. That could again be the case in '05.

4. Brett Favre (Packers): Favre isn't nearly as good anymore as this ranking suggests. Last year, he was a mediocre 12th in YPA. But he was ninth in attempts per game thanks to the Packers defense, which is likely to be even worse in '05. He was also very lucky last year in benefitting from an NFL-leading 14 blown coverages, many of which went for TDs (the median is five). His playmaking receivers should allow him to again finish in the top 10 in fewest attempts per TD. He's piled up a bunch of cheap TDs in close in years past, but the Packers threw the ball only 50 percent of the time last year in the red zone (12th in the NFL). Favre has suffered some significant losses on the offensive line, but he is very concerned about self-protection now and will chuck it up for grabs rather than take a big hit when he senses one coming. That's not necessarily a bad thing for fantasy owners, especially considering Javon Walker's ability to win downfield battles.

5. Kerry Collins (Raiders): We're dropping him below Farve based on new evidence of his accuracy woes in 2004: 22nd in percentage of on-the-money throws and 29th in accuracy on deep throws. Readers of the Breakfast Table know that I argued vociferously against Collins last year. What's changed? Randy Moss, that's what. Now, if you want to accuse me of having a man crush on Moss, I'll stand guilty as charged. What's not to love? Since Moss came into the league, his QBs have averaged a TD every 17 attempts. Collins isn't as good as Culpepper? Fine. Is he as good as Jeff George and Randall Cunningham and Gus Frerotte? Rhetorical questions aside, remember, that average of a TD every 17 attempts with the generic-Moss QB dates back to before the league loosened up the passing game in 2004. If you take the QB with the most TD passes in every season since Moss was drafted for comparison's sake, they've collectively averaged a TD pass every 14.5 attempts (including Manning in '04). Now, add playmaking Jerry Porter on the other side and let's assume Ronald Curry flashes his pre-injury form as a No. 3 receiver. It's hard to see how Collins finishes out of the top five in attempts per TD and the Raiders are going to be throwing the ball early and often with that marshmallow defense. Caveat: Collins was only seventh in red zone use last year despite the Raiders having no running game. But the Raiders defense is likely to stink again.

6. Trent Green (Chiefs): He's always good in YPA and last year was no exception, with a fourth-best 8.26. Given that, Green should finish higher than 12th in attempts per TD pass. The reason he doesn't is that the Chiefs take the ball out of his hands in the red zone more than other teams do with top QBs. Last year, Green was 15th in red zone use. Don't expect that to change much even if Priest Holmes gets hurt, as Larry Johnson may be better. There's noise about the Chiefs having an improved defense, but what does that mean? They'll give up less than 435 point this year? Okay, but I doubt it means improved in any way that resembles "Good." Many quibble with the Chiefs' receiving corps. But it's no worse than in past years and perhaps better now that Eddie Kennison shows signs of emerging as a solid complement to Tony Gonzalez.

Third Tier

7. Jake Delhomme (Panthers): Through more deep passes than any QB in football last year. I'd love to put him higher, but he's playing a receiver short again. Last year, it didn't matter much as the Panthers played most of the season with no significant running threat. This year, they have DeShaun Foster back and drafted Eric Shelton for the Stephen Davis role. Delhomme had 23 red zone TD passes and threw the ball 63 percent of the time in that area of the field, second only to Daunte Culpepper. Expect the Panthers to run more in the scoring zone this year. Jake does get Steve Smith back, but will Smith be fully recovered from his devastating injury, which cost him virtually all of 2004? You can argue that Rod Gardner can fill the void created by the departure of Muhsin Muhammad, but I need to see that before I believe it. On the plus side, the Panthers pass defense is overrated when you factor out their weak 2004 schedule. A porous secondary will force the Panthers to throw more and will allow Delhomme to again finish in the top 10 in attempts per game.

8. Marc Bulger (Rams): I left many scratching their heads last year when I ranked Delhomme ahead of Bulger. Now I worry if I'm being too kind. The big reason for this ranking is attempts per game (Bulger was fifth with 35). Of course, Bulger will again be top 10 in YPA (8.17 last year) because of his receivers and the emphasis on the intermediate passing game; Bulger completes an NFL best 71 percent of these attempts. But the attempts per TD leaves us scratching our heads. How could he have finished tied with Drew Bledsoe last year in that telling stat? Four red zone interceptions appears to be the culprit. The Jets Chad Pennington hasn't thrown a red zone interception since he played Pop Warner in Tennessee. Worse, Bulger had two picks and just six TDs inside the opponents 10-yard line with a 56.3 rating there. That's too much inefficiency and must be corrected for the sake of the Rams and his owners. Steven Jackson poses a red zone threat, but Martz always like to throw in close (sixth most frequent passing team there in '04).

9. Matt Hasselbeck (Seahawks): His stats from last year aren't as disappointing as they seem when you remember he missed two games. They're viewed as disappointing because owners were expecting growth from 2003 levels and still remember his outburst at the end of the 2002 season. He's not going to be a top five fantasy QB as long as Shaun Alexander remains such an efficient scorer. The 53 percent of the time Hasselbeck passed in the red zone tied him with Peyton Manning for ninth highest usage in the NFL. The difference is that Edgerrin James can't score and Alexander can. Will "Butterfingers" stop being the official sponsor of the Seattle receiving corps? Last year, Hasselbeck lost 54 completions to dropped passes or other factors beyond his control (e.g., a receiver not getting both feet in bounds).

10. Jake Plummer (Broncos): He's too mistake prone in real football. And that hurts him in fantasy because it forces Shanahan to take the ball out of his hands in key areas of the field (just 13th in red zone opportunities). Overall, however, he's very solid in all the key stats: eighth in YPA, 10th in attempts per TD and 12th in attempts per game. To raise his fantasy game, Plummer needs Jeb Putzier to emerge as a solid hash receiver and Ashlie Lelie to take another step toward become a premier playmaker. In other words, too many questions to risk a high draft pick.

11. Carson Palmer (Bengals): I don't like being too speculative with young QBs. This ranking imagines continued development, but Palmer showed tremendous growth as a player after the first half dozen games in '04, his first year as a starter. For Palmer to get to the next level fantasy-wise, he'll need to improve his YPA about a yard per game. That's asking a lot, but consider that Palmer led the NFL in YPA on deep throws, yet the Bengals were just 22nd in percentage of passes that were deep. So a simple play calling adjustment is perhaps all that's needed. The Bengals put the ball in Palmer's hands just 41 percent of the time last year, 19th in the NFL. The reason to take this leap is that Chad Johnson may soon be the NFL's premier receiver and is already among the handful of best wideouts. T.J. Houshmanzadeh is another reason for optimism and there's great depth behind him with the playmaking Kelly Washington.

12. Tom Brady (Patriots): I ranked Brady higher than just about anyone last year and he had a solid year: 10th in YPA and sixth in fewest attempts per TD pass. This year, I have concerns that Bill Belichick will be more conservative calling plays than was Charlie Weis. And remember, the Pats were far from wide open in '04, finishing 20th in attempts per game (not so bad considering how they dominated opponents) and 17th in using the QB in the red zone (42 percent of plays). Further erosion in those stats is probable. Boding well for Brady is a wide receiver corps that looks to be solid if David Terrell or Andre Davis emerges (both are big and fast). Brady can contribute to a winning fantasy team but is unlikely to carry a squad for significant stretches.

13. Brian Griese (Bucs): No. 1 in the NFL in on-the-money accuracy percentage. While Griese had the third-lowest percentage of deep passes (just under 11 percent of throws), he was also the NFL's most accurate short passer. He can be the poor man's Brady, a QB any fantasy team can win with. But he'll never be a difference maker because he doesn't get enough chances to make plays in the red zone. The Bucs were 22nd in QB usage there, running 62 percent of the time. Griese deserves more faith, as he was fifth in fewest attempts per TD and ninth in YPA. Jon Gruden seemed to indicate he's at least as committed to running the ball in key spots this year with the first-round selection of Carnell Williams, who is slight but joins Michael Pittman and the returning Mike Alstott in the backfield. Michael Clayton has a chance to be a special player, but the rest of the receiving corps is thin and the tight ends are uninspiring unless rookie Alex Smith proves to be a quick learner and playmaker.

Fourth Tier

14. Drew Brees (Chargers): Seventh in YPA and third in fewest attempts per TD pass (just a shade behind Daunte Culpepper), Brees has a good case for demanding more love. But I just can't give it. He has to remain super efficient in converting attempts to TDs because the Chargers don't like to throw (28th in attempts per game) or use the QB in the red zone (24th with a 37-percent usage rate). Last year was the first ever where fantasy owners wanted any part of a Marty Schottenheimer passing game. That could be a fluke. And so could Brees. Protect yourself here with a capable backup (that's the case with all the QBs in this tier).

15. Michael Vick (Falcons): That red zone use total seems better than it is because runs are included. And the truth is that Vick didn't score enough on the ground last year to help owners. We know he sucks the life out of the passing game, with a pitiful 21 attempts per game. You can't even blame the coaches because almost all of Vick's runs are undersigned (thus starting as passes). He's not rewarding the Falcons or fantasy owners enough by taking all those risks running the ball. Thus far, he's been unable to translate that running threat to the passing game by lobbing the ball over the heads of distracted defenders.  If the receivers were the problem last year, they're still a problem. Can Vick improve his dreadful accuracy (NFL worst on short throws) and decision making (highest percentage among qualifying QBs in throwing into coverage, staring down WRs, throwing it up for grabs while being sacked, etc.).

16. Aaron Brooks (Saints): Err on the side of not drafting Saints this year. They'll lead a nomad existence and have far more important things on their mind than playing football. Hope for a feel-good story from the Saints, but don't bet on one on draft day. The Saints want to run the ball more and have changed coordinators to accomplish this. Brooks has a knack for making enough plays to keep fantasy owners satisfied (if not happy), but he's really nothing special. Last year, he was 18th in YPA as he again struggled with his accuracy. He has a reputation as a runner, but doesn't do much damage with the yards. Last year, he tallied four scores on the ground but it's unwise to expect that kind of number again when he's averaging barely more than 10 rushing yards per game. Brooks was the fourth most utilized QB in the red zone last year. But he didn't make enough plays (21st in TDs per attempts despite all those red zone chances), so the Saints want to emphasize Deuce McAllister more.

17. Chad Pennington (Jets): Considering Pennington's amazing efficiency in the red zone (37 TDs, zero picks in his career), he doesn't get to throw enough there. Last year, Pennington was 20th in red zone QB usage (39 percent). But new coordinator Mike Heimerdinger will fix that, right? Billy Volek was 25th in red zone usage (35 percent) and Steve McNair LAST in that category (21 percent). If anything, Pennington is likely to get less chances in the red zone than he did in '04. It's very, very difficult for any QB to rely on TD passes from outside of 20 yards. Those need to be icing on the cake. Pennington passed the preseason shoulder test with flying colors, hurling a pass 55 yards in the air to overthrow a streaking Justin McCareins.

18. Joey Harrington (Lions): Along with Vick, Harrington is the one QB in this tier who can be a top five fantasy QB if everything broke right. My friend and Breakfast Table colleague (and Michiganite) Scott Pianowski watches him every week and just hates him. It seems feelings are mixed in the Detroit front office, too, if we're to believe media reports from last spring (when Harrington was rumored to be on the chopping block). We know that he missed more open receivers than any QB in football last year (a whopping 12 percent of his attempts, about a third worse than average). To make matters worse, Harrington throws into good coverage with the fourth highest frequency. So why take the chance? He won't cost much. The weapons are dynamic, with three very high first-round picks at the position, each very tall and/or very fast. The Niners are making the switch to a the Fouts/Chargers-style of offense (also utilized by the Rams). Steve Mariucci likes to call the QB's number near paydirt (Harrington was the third most frequently used QB in the red zone last year). If you're going to REALLY wait on QBs and take two players in this tier, make one of them Harrington. Unlike most, I never thought Jeff Garcia (out with a broken ankle) posed much of a threat because he's lost a lot of accuracy (28th in on-the-money throws last year and NFL worst in well-timed short passes).

19. Steve McNair (Titans): People are too down on him. I still think he can play. What I doubt is whether he can stay healthy long enough to be productive. McNair seems to have lost is the ability to play hurt. Mike Heimerdinger did him no favors last year, putting the ball into the hands of the running backs in the red zone. Maybe he was trying to protect McNair. Either way, that severely limited his productivity. The threat posed by Billy Volek is uncertain. McNair also lost his favorite receiver, Derrick Mason. But McNair has never had to rely on great weapons in the passing game. New offensive coordinator Norm Chow brings with him his reputation as passing guru, but it's a big step up from the college ranks. McNair really isn't worth more than a small wager at this point.

20. David Carr (Texans): The YPA jumps out and demands notice. No matter what the year, 7.58 is a nice number. It was a lot higher in the first half, too, but that cuts both ways.  The Texans don't use Carr or WR Andre Johnson enough in the red zone, but the onus is on them to show they deserve more reps here. Carr took a beating last year, which is nothing new for him. I like Jabar Gaffney, but he hasn't proven much behind Johnson. Carr does run it a lot (299 yards last year) and that should translate into a few rushing scores (zero in '04). I don't see the upside here that I see with McNair and Harrington.

Yard Per Passing Attempt

Red Zone Use (QB throw or run)

Attempts Per TD

Attempts Per Game