Football By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

September 5 , 2006
Shutdown Corners vs. Top Targets

Teams are engaged in evolutionary warfare to control the lonely island of green outside the hashmarks.

Every few years a different breed of receiver begins to dominate. Santana Moss and Steve Smith destroyed defensive backfields last year with their quickness. Other offenses will follow suit until defenses adjust by drafting cornerbacks with similar athletic skills.

The importance of these battles is clear when we isolate them statistically (with the help of TwoMinuteWarning.com). Two of the last four Super Bowl winners were ranked No. 1 in shutting down opposing top-two wide receivers; the other recent champions were each ranked No. 4.

These defensive rankings are determined by opposing QB rating on passes to top-two wideouts. Last year, the Steelers were fourth best, as were the Patriots in 2004. But defending-champion Pittsburgh allowed a league-low 51.7 percent completions to top wideouts.

The Bears and Bengals held QBs to the lowest rating on these attempts, but Cincinnati’s success is too reliant on a very high interception rate, which defenses generally do not repeat from one season to the next. Only nine teams allowed more than the 7.6 yards the Bengals permitted on the 259 attempts opponents aimed at primary receivers.

The Bears were legitimate in every way, however, permitting just four TD passes to these receivers, tied with the 2005 Falcons for the lowest total this decade.

Seven other defenses allowed half a TD pass per game or less to top-two wideouts (Steelers, Jets, Ravens, Browns, Bucs, Packers, Bengals and Bills). On the other end of the spectrum were the league-worst Titans (19 TD passes allowed to starting WRs). The Texans, Rams and Patriots each allowed 16 TDs to opposing top targets.

Which offenses target No. 1 and No. 2 receivers the most and most effectively?

The Cardinals get an “A” for effort. Last year, Anquan Boldin (171) and Larry Fitzgerald (165) finished No. 1 and No. 4, respectively in times thrown to; Boldin's total led NFL and he missed two full games.

No other team had two receivers in the NFL’s Target Top 20. The closest were Oakland’s duo of Jerry Porter (142) and Randy Moss (124), Cincy’s tandem of Chad Johnson (155) and T.J. Houshmandzadeh (115), and Indy’s pair of aces, Marvin Harrison (132) and Reggie Wayne (122). Note that new coach Art Shell demoted Porter to second team.

When you look at efficiency (percentage targets that result in completions), the running backs dominate. The best completion percentage by a top-targeted WR is Steve Smith’s stunning 68.7 percent (150 targets). Of the 24 wideouts with more than 120 targets last year, only Wayne (68 percent), Denver’s Rod Smith (67.5 percent), Washington’s Santana Moss (62.7 percent), St. Louis’ Torry Holt (62.6 percent) and Fitzgerald (62.4 percent) finished in the top 40 in completion percentage.

Let’s make some recommendations on wideouts based on these numbers and predict who will surprise and disappoint in ‘06.

Buy

Darrell Jackson, Seahawks: Jackson (knee/questionable) had 55 targets in just six games (69 percent completions). Even better, three of the worst eight pass defenses versus starting wideouts are in the NFC West (San Francisco, Arizona, St. Louis).

Antonio Bryant, Niners: Another sleeper WR who’s a clear No. 1 target. Alex Smith should dramatically improve (not saying much, I know) and the schedule is WR friendly.

Roy Williams, Lions: New coordinator Mike Martz made sure Holt was always near the top of the target board, with spectacular results. Williams will capably fill the Holt role now in Motown.

Reggie Wayne, Colts: This is the year Wayne passes Harrison in targets (and Marvin won’t like it). Figure on 1,200 yards and 10 scores.

Hold

Donte Stallworth, Eagles: He and Reggie Brown will get 130+ targets each in an offense that will again pass about 60 percent of plays. The over/under on both is 1,000 receiving yards and eight scores.

Joe Horn, Saints: He's fading at age 34, but opportunity is everything at WR and Horn is a clear No. 1 on a team that will generally play from behind.

Sell

Santana Moss, Redskins: Explosive, yes, but 13 receivers had more passes thrown to them and the Redskins heavily invested in WRs Antwaan Randle El and Brandon Lloyd.