Football By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

August 29 , 2006
Dominating in the Red Zone

Announcers prattle endlessly about the importance of red zone efficiency. But it isn’t close to being the NFL’s most important stat. Heck, it’s not even the most important stat involving the red zone. Getting inside your opponent's 20-yard line turns out to be its own reward.

Occam’s Razor is not the latest shaving product being hawked during those tedious TV timeouts. It’s the concept that says the simplest solution is always the best. The same is true of statistics.

Let’s look at the predictive value of red zone possessions themselves as opposed to how often touchdowns result from those possessions.

The top 10 teams in net red zone possessions are better than the top 10 teams net TD efficiency (red zone TD percentage for minus red zone TD percentage allowed). Yes, the difference is only three games, but the bottom 10 in net red zone possessions were significantly worse than the bottom 10 in net efficiency (45-115 vs. 56-104).

The Colts (plus-22) had the most net possessions and were football’s best regular season team. The 10 worst in net red zone possessions all lost 10 games or more.

The kings of net red zone efficiency were the Seahawks at plus-30.3 percent. Seattle lapped the next two teams (the Panthers, plus-17.5 percent, and Chargers, plus-17.3 percent). But it was the Colts who dominated throughout the regular season and they were just plus-12 percent in red zone TD efficiency. Two winning teams (Giants and Dolphins) were among the 10 worst in net efficiency.

Looking further at the overlooked possessions numbers, the average NFL team made about 48 red zone trips, but the number varies widely. The most prodigious last year was Cincinnati with 62 possessions (followed closely by the Colts, Seahawks, Giants, Broncos, Patriots). The Niners pulled up the rear with a pitiful 28 inside-the-20 possessions (the second-worst Texans had 36).

San Francisco also allowed opponents to see "red" most often (64 trips). The Rams and Texans were the only other 60-and-over teams (allowing opponents 62 and 60 trips, respectively). Six teams built a veritable wall at their own 20-yard line: the Jaguars, Redskins, Cowboys, Colts, Broncos and  Panthers all allowed less than 40 red zone possessions.

Only seven teams were successful scoring TDs on more than 60 percent of red zone possessions: the Seahawks (72 percent), Chargers (71 percent), Patriots, Colts, Steelers and Broncos. To be efficient in the red zone, you better be able to run. The Steelers, Broncos, Seahawks and Chargers were ranked first, second, fourth and seventh in highest percentage of red-zone runs. None of these teams threw more often in the red zone than the NFL average of 46 percent of snaps.

Scoring on the ground here most often comes down to how well you run inside the opponent’s five-yard line. Let’s look at which running backs are likely to best capitalize on these opportunities in 2006 and catapult their teams to the top of the NFL red zone efficiency rankings.

Buy

Larry Johnson, Chiefs: KC ran the ball 70 percent of the time in the red zone last year, a tendency unlikely to change under new head coach Herm Edwards. Johnson converted a mediocre 44 percent of inside-the-five plays into TDs. Expect more efficiency from him in '06.

Mike Bell, Broncos: The undrafted rookie looks to have assumed the Mike Anderson-role in the Broncos offense and Anderson (Ravens) tied Edgerrin James for the NFL lead with 25 plays inside the five.

Willis McGahee, Bills: Only Detroit’s Kevin Jones had a worse efficiency rate than McGahee’s 19 percent TDs on 21 inside-the-five plays (minimum 10 plays). In 2004, McGahee was better than average; so blame the line and expect improvement.

Hold

Rudi Johnson, Bengals: Most of Johnson’s 17 tries came in the second-half of 2005. He converted 47 percent, seventh best among backs with 10-plus chances. Cincy should again be among the NFL’s red-zone possession leaders.

Sell

Cadillac Williams, Bucs: Mike Alstott is back and Williams was used just twice last year inside the five (one TD).

DeShaun Foster, Panthers: Always hurt and 0-for-5 last year inside the five. Expect someone else to eventually get the short-yardage looks that last year went to Stephen Davis (19 goal-line plays before injury wrecked his season in mid-November).

Tiki Barber, Giants: Mammoth Brandon Jacobs will again outpace the diminutive Barber in goal-line plays (14 to 11 in 2005).