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But real wisdom often requires unconventional thinking. Savvy statisticians have known for decades that the two statistics that correlate best with NFL success have nothing to do with rushing. They are yards per pass attempt (YPA) and points per pass attempt (PPA, derived by dividing points resulting from touchdown passes by attempts).

There’s ample evidence for the unrivaled importance of these key stats. In 2005, the 10 NFL teams with the best differential in YPA gained versus allowed were a combined 111-49 (.694 winning percentage). The 10 worst were 48-112 (.300). In PPA differential, the 10 best teams were 108-52 (.675); the 10 worst, 50-110 (.313).

All of the best teams in both stats won at least nine games. The worst teams all lost at least 10 except for the Bears (bottom 10 in YPA differential) and Chiefs (bottom 10 in PPA differential). But the Bears and Chiefs both were among the 10 best in the other stat. (Chicago allowed an NFL-low 10 TD passes.)

What about our defending champion Smashmouth Steelers? No. 1 in both YPA and PPA differential, and that’s with QB Ben Roethlisberger missing four games.

Individual YPA leaders like Roethlisberger are likely to finish among the league leaders in TD passes. Last year, only five of the 10 best QBs in YPA also finished in the top 10 in TDs. But Marc Bulger missed half the season with a bad shoulder. And while even a healthy Roethlisberger may not have finished top 10 in scoring strikes, that’s due only to the Steelers’ ridiculous conservatism (last in the NFL in both overall pass percentage and pass percentage on first downs).

“But the Steelers won the Super Bowl, smart guy, so Bill Cowher obviously knew what he was doing!” They did that the hard way as a No. 6 playoff seed. Teams finishing No. 1 in both of our key stats historically win 13-to-15 games.

There’s a large skill component to YPA, so it tends to be repeatable from one year to the next. But players in the NFL, more than any other sport, need a proper environment to express their skill. With this in mind, let’s look at which QBs are most likely to rise or fall in TD proficiency in ‘06.

Buy

Tom Brady (Patriots): Weak-armed reputation is unfounded given his 99 QB rating on 11-to-20-yard throws. The Patriots, who threw the most of any winning team in ’05, keep drafting tight ends because Brady excels in formations with two or more (137 QB rating and 13 TDs in 76 attempts).

Kurt Warner (Cardinals): Less passing will mean more production for Warner. Safeties will eye the backfield out of respect for Edgerrin James, creating play-action opportunities to explosive wideouts Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin.

Jon Kitna (Lions): Kitna was named the starter the first day of camp. This is a system pick, with master QB-molder and perennial YPA-wizard Mike Martz now in Detroit.

Hold

Donovan McNabb (Eagles): Always middle of the pack in YPA without Owens. But Philly with McNabb threw the most overall and most on first down. Andy Reid says he wants more running, but RB Brian Westbrook is too small to handle more than 15 touches a game.

Eli Manning (Giants): Showed tremendous growth in the first half of ‘05 before crashing and then burning altogether in the playoffs. He has plenty of weapons and Tiki Barber (31) is too old to withstand 350 carries again in ’05.

Drew Bledsoe (Cowboys): Still great functional arm strength is evidenced by his 95 QB rating on 11-to-20-yard throws. Terrell Owens (hamstring) makes kings out of QBs, but we need to see him back on the field before upgrading Bledsoe.

Sell

Daunte Culpepper (Dolphins): There’s a good chance he was a product his Vikings environment. Chris Chambers could be a poor-man’s Randy Moss. But running is a big part of Culpepper’s game and that ability is likely lost after major knee surgery.

Trent Green (Chiefs): Herm Edwards says he wants to run the ball 550 times to protect his improved defense. Forget about Green again finishing third in passing yards.

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