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Football By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

Football By The Numbers

Current Column Super Bowl Preview & Pick 2006 Column Archive Championship Week Dissected Divisional Preview Wild Card Preview There's Power In the Passing Game Quantifying AFC Dominance Does Running Well Help You Pass? Functional Arm Strength Ranks Best Shut-Down Secondaries Running in the Red Zone Third Down vs. First Down Decided Three-and-Outs Denote Dominance Yards Per Drive Stats When Great Units Collide First-Half Playcalling Trends Sacks Impact Understated Bears, Grossman for Real Matt Leinart Unlikely to Shine RB Committees In Vogue Again Avoid Overreacting to Week 1 Shutdown Corners vs. Top Targets Winning Teams, QBs of '06 Who Dominates in the Red Zone? Key RotoAction Fantasy FB Stats 2005 Column Archive

The Super Bowl is the circus come to town. But Colts vs. Bears is very interesting on multiple levels, hype aside.

AFC vs. NFC means much more this year than most others, as the AFC has dominated inter-conference games: 40-24 overall, including 34 wins the last 45 meetings. In those 45 games, the AFC outscored the NFC by 342 points, 7.6 per game.

You can thus make a case that the Colts should be favored by about 7.5 points over the Bears in addition to however the key stats break down because the Colts compiled their stats playing in a much tougher conference. The Colts have slightly less than a one-point stat advantage over the Bears on a neutral field. Yet, the Vegas line opened at Colts by 7. So the difference in the relative strength of each conference as evidenced by these interconference results is clearly the significant factor in setting the point spread. Note also that the Bears were 2-2 versus the AFC East this year; the Colts 3-1 versus the NFC East.

The other matchup to note here is offense versus defense. The Colts finished the regular season with the second-highest scoring offense, the Bears were the third-stingiest defense in allowing points. Who has the advantage when the great offense meets the great defense?

This year, top six scoring offenses have met top six defenses in preventing points 19 times. The offenses are 11-8 in these games. They have scored 21 points per game, exactly what you’d expect when you take their average points scored (26.5) and the average points allowed by the stingy defenses they’ve faced (16.1).

The Colts have faced these miserly defenses an incredible seven times (including playoffs). Compare that to the Bears defense, which has faced a high-scoring offense once all year, versus the Saints in the NFC championship. The Colts were 6-1 against these defenses, averaging an incredible 25-plus points per game.

Astute NFL observers will note that the Bears scored exactly as many points as the Colts. Yet I did not include them among the top offenses, and not merely for aesthetic reasons. The Bears not registered seven TDs via return, but also greatly relied on turnovers to generate other easy points. Chicago led the NFL with 44 takeaways during the regular season (the average team had 28).

This is not a difficult game to read. All signs point Indy. Peyton Manning has finally conquered his post-season demons by beating his archrival in dramatic come-from-behind fashion and after a horrific early start (the pick returned for a TD). The Bears defense was on the ropes last week in the second half and survived, but don’t forget that Drew Brees cut them up for a significant stretch of that game. The Saints self-destructed early on special teams and late on offense and defense. But Manning and the Colts are unlikely to give this game away. Then you’re left with Rex Grossman vs. Manning: no contest. So, Colts 27-19 is the computer pick. Now let’s look more closely at the key players and units.

Buy

Colts Pass Defense: The Colts have allowed less than six yards per pass attempt this postseason, a championship number. And they’ve allowed only one pass play over 25 yards (a 27-yarder) after allowing the lowest percentage of big passing plays in football (six percent of all passes).

Devin Hester, KR, Bears: The Colts were 31st in punt return average and 30th in kickoff return average allowed. Hester returned six kicks for scores this year, including two kickoffs in the same game.

Hold

Bears RBs: Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson should be productive given that the Colts allowed over 100 yards rushing in every regular season game. But if Peyton is hot, running versus Indy is mere window dressing.

Sell

Rex Grossman, QB, Bears: He needs big plays to score, about 12 percent of completions this season were plus-25 yards (second best to the Eagles QBs). But Grossman lacks accuracy (16.7 percent poor throws, below average) and consistency (six games with a sub-65 QB rating).

Bears Defense: They need sacks and turnovers (nearly three per game) to succeed. But Manning gets sacked once every 37 attempts and the Colts turn the ball over only about once per game.