Football By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

November 7, 2006
Three & Outs Denote Dominance

Three-and-out stats allow us to better assess offensive and defensive dominance.

If these stats are as meaningful as they seem at first glance, the best and worst teams at causing three-and-outs relative to the three-and-out percentage their offense should generally have the best and worst records. And these three-and-out percentages should also correlate neatly to points scored for each unit. We then highlight outliers in hopes of better predicting the teams, units and even players most likely to reverse fortunes during the second half of the ’06 NFL season.

The top 10 teams in net three-and-out percentage win 60 percent of games, the bottom 10 win 32.5 percent. That’s a strong enough relationship to actual record to take seriously, as the top 10 teams in record win 76 percent of games, the bottom 10 just 25 percent.

But two 2-6 teams are in the top 10 of these net three-and-out stats, the Dolphins and Steelers. A second-half reversal is very likely from these teams. There’s no winning team in the bottom 10 of our net three-and-out rankings. But this stat strongly suggests the Jets (30th) and Bengals (27th) seem unlikely to continue playing .500. The Ravens are 11th worst, so, by this measure, their 6-2 record is a mirage.

Offenses with the lowest percentage of three-and-out drives average 24 points per game, the worst 17 (average is 20.5). This is exactly the range we look for. The outliers at the top are the Dolphins and Broncos, who this stat predicts will average at least seven more points per game the remainder of the season. At the bottom, the most interesting outlier is the Bengals, who have disappointed many but have actually significantly overachieved in points scored.

Note yet another measure of Peyton Manning’s excellence. The Colts have gone three-and-out on just nine of 79 drives (11 percent; the Rams are second best at 16 percent and the average is about 23 percent).

The best defenses (highest percentage of three-and-outs allowed) permit an average of 20 points per game, the worst about 24. We’d like a better spread than that. What gives? There’s not just one or two outliers on the top, but a bunch of teams that give up around the average of 20.5 per game. The Vikings are the NFL’s best unit with a third of opponent drives ending in three and outs, but no one takes that unit seriously after seeing it filleted by Tom Brady and the Patriots on Monday night. The correlation is much better on the bottom, with the Patriots’ defense the major outlier (30th in dispatching opposing offenses most quickly, yet allowed a paltry 14 points per game). Also expect the Broncos to allow at least a TD more per game going forward (Denver is just 22nd in opposing three-and-out percentage).

Now, some player recommendations based on these and other key stats.

Buy

Terrell Owens, WR, Cowboys: Dropped a bomb last week that would have salted a win. But there’s a bunch of statistical support for this offense under Tony Romo (third fewest three and outs, for one). Expect Dallas to be high flying going forward and for Owens to be the major benefiary.

Hold

Javon Walker, WR, Broncos: According to ProFootballReference.com, Walker is on his way to smashing Steve Smith’s 2005 NFL record for highest percentage of passing yards held by one receiver (44.8 percent). Currently, Walker has 48.3 percent of all the Broncos passing yards. And that doesn’t include 120 more yards on the ground.

Sell

Joey Galloway, WR, Bucs: QB Bruce Gradkowski and the Bucs are a joke, going three-and-out on 38 percent of the their drives (worst in football). Galloway’s two TDs last week are not a sign of things to come.

Reggie Bush, RB, Saints: After minus-five yards on 11 carries last week, Bush is averaging 2.5 yards per pop. And he’s not doing much at all with all those catches either (6.8 yards per reception).

Rudi Johnson, RB, Bengals: He has value. The Bengals might turn it around offensively. But it just as likely might be a blah year for Carson Palmer, who has altered his mechanics to protect his surgically repaired knee.

Reggie Brown, WR, Eagles: Here’s your NFL leader in drops (seven). The Eagles are about average in three-and-out percentage, not what you look for from a supposedly dominant unit.