Football By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

October 31, 2006
Yards Per Drive Stats Reveal Sleeper Units

Halloween week provides the perfect setting for the NFL’s version of Godzilla vs. King Kong, or, as NBC puts it in promoting Sunday night’s primetime affair, “Manning vs. Brady.”

Both QBs are at the very top of their games, coming off dominating road performances against highly ranked defenses. Neither had to rely on big passing plays for points and yards, as they each matriculated the ball down the field with surgical precision.

We know what we’re going to get from Peyton (and, remember, he’s generally performed very well versus New England when weather has not been a factor). Whether Brady will throw toe-to-toe with him, however, is another story. The Patriots went into a run-and-shoot, empty backfield look for much of Monday night’s massacre of Minnesota after not throwing more than running in any win all season.

Given the Colts poorly ranked run defense (most rushing yards per play and per game), New England again may go terrestrial. But Bill Belichick might reasonably conclude that there’s no stopping Manning, who has led the Colts to touchdowns on a league-leading 33 percent of possessions, and place emphasis on scoring as many points as possible. We’ve all learned to expect the unexpected from the Patriots.

The Colts lead the NFL with an average of 39 yards per drive (NFL average is 27), but the Colts defense gives much of that back (fifth-worst 33 yards allowed per drive).

The most productive offenses in football after Indy in this stat are the Chargers, Eagles, Steelers, Giants, Saints, Rams, Falcons and Patriots. The Steelers should average about a touchdown more per game given their average of 33 yards per drive, but don’t due to Ben Roethlisberger’s 11 picks. Of course, the American Academy of Neurology’s guidelines say that Roethlisberger (two knockouts within six months) should have sat Sunday (four picks) and for all of November.

The shocking team offensively in yards per drive is Arizona, scraping the bottom at a measly 22 yards despite all those No. 1 picks at QB, RB and WR. If you want throw and score in the NFL, you need premier linemen (the Cards are 24th in sacks per attempt, last in yards per carry).

Defensively, the Bears (19), Chargers (20) and Ravens (21) predictably dominate in yards per drive. But the Cowboys (23) and Raiders (24) are not far behind. The Broncos allow TDs on just three percent of opposing drives (Manning laughs at that stat), the Bears five percent and Ravens eight (NFL average is 18 percent).

Teams will feast far more than famine against the charitable defenses of the Texans (37 yards per drive), Jets (35), Redskins (34), Niners (34), Colts (33), Lions (33), Titans (33) and Rams (32).

The history watch as we head into the halfway point of the season is the net points total of the Bears (plus 21.7 per game). According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the all-time record is held by the 1942 Bears (26.5) and the post-expansion mark by the 1999 Rams (17.8). Both teams, of course, ended up as NFL champs.

Now, some player predictions.

Buy

Daunte Stallworth, WR, Eagles: This is the week to buy Eagles. Philly still throws the most (66 percent of plays, Miami is second at 64 percent) and the now healthy Stallworth has the most upside among Donovan McNabb’s WR targets.

Michael Vick, QB, Falcons: The odds of him playing better than ever two weeks in a row totally by chance are decidedly against. If he maintains a downfield focus while scrambling, he will reinvent the position.

Jason Witten, TE, Cowboys: New QB (Tony Romo), new second option in Dallas (Witten, eight targets last week). Sorry Terry Glenn (six targets).

Hold

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers: Finally, a rushing yardage breakthrough. Now, we can put off talk of a decline related to that impossibly heavy and historic workload until 2007.

Sell

Reuben Droughns, RB, Browns: Your Aunt Millie would look nifty between the tackles versus the Jets. Remember, the Browns entered Week 8 at a pitiful 3.0 per carry.

Julius Jones, RB, Cowboys: He’s swift and shifty, but doesn’t score or generate enough total yardage with Marion Barber coming in for all short, goal-line and third-down plays.