Football By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

October 24, 2006
When Great Offenses, Defenses Collide

Not since the Orange Crush of the 1970s has the “D” in Denver stood for “defense.” Not since the 1934 Detroit Lions opened with seven straight shutouts has a unit yielded fewer TDs since Denver’s two through six games.

Skeptics say that Denver has feasted against poorly rated QBs. Sure, they faced Marc Bulger and the Rams, but that was Bulger’s first game in a new system (St. Louis kicked six field goals in handing Denver their only loss of the year). On Sunday, however, Peyton Manning rolls into the Mile High City fresh off his 2006 breakout, four-TD toasting of the Redskins.

What happens when the great offense, like the 2006 Colts, faces the great defense, like the 2006 Broncos? This year, teams in the top 10 in both yards per pass attempt (YPA) and top half in points per pass attempt have faced similarly highly ranked defenses only five times, as the lack of quality competition very likely keys their success.

The highly ranked offensive team beat the highly ranked defensive team three out of these five matchups. Average points scored (20) and YPA (6.2) are right at the midway point between the respective units. Quarterbacks generated an average of one TD pass per game and 1.6 picks. But expect Manning to do much better than this because we know he is truly great and can reasonable doubt Denver’s defense.

Old schoolers are asking, “Why is passing efficiency the better barometer for offensive and defensive excellence and not running efficiency?”

Currently, the top 10 in YPA average 25.6 points per game. The bottom 10, 15.6. The best teams in preventing YPA allow 16.9 PPG, the bottom 10, 24.5. These very significant splits are what you’d hope for from a single stat that ideally correlating to points scored and allowed.

Conversely, there’s barely any significant difference when you look at yards per rushing attempt. The best rushing offenses average 22 points per game, the worst 20; the best rushing defenses allow 19.8 points, the worst just 22.

In fact, YPA correlations to points scored are so strong, that we can use the stat to identify teams that should be scoring or preventing points much better or worse than they are actually doing. The Jets should be scoring about five more points per game. The Falcons are overachieving in points scored to the same degree in light of their passing inefficiency (read on about Michael Vick’s great Week 7).

Defensively, the Patriots are allowing an amazing 11 points less per game than expected by looking at only YPA allowed. But Bill Belichick is the one coach in NFL history who consistently defies YPA expectations. At the other end of the spectrum, the Colts, Raiders, Eagles and Browns are all allowing almost a TD more per game than the typical team with a similar rock-solid YPA against.

Now, some more player predictions.

Buy

Leon Washington, RB, Jets: His upside is Warrick Dunn. Don’t expect goal-line carries and touchdowns. There will be games where Kevan Barlow (who also ran well last week) gets as many looks. But the former Seminole is very explosive.

Joseph Addai, RB, Colts: We said in the summer that his ETA was going to be Halloween and he’s right on schedule in clearly outplaying Dominick Rhodes (5.1 per carry to Rhodes’ 3.3).

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars: Jones-Drew is under 5-foot-7, but his thighs are massive relative to the rest of his body. The rookie is officially the goal-line back for the Jaguars and more explosive than declining, but still competent Fred Taylor.

Hold

Michael Vick, QB, Falcons: He lacks the accuracy to repeat his pocket efficiency last week (42 percent of incompletions this year are poor throws). If Vick learns to look to throw first after breaking the pocket while his running skills are still intact, he’ll be the most dangerous QB ever despite accuracy woes.

Sell

Wali Lundy, RB, Texans: He’s unlikely to be a consistent scorer because the Texans again have offensive line problems and have generated the fewest inside-the-five plays for RBs since the start of the 2005 season.

Darrell Jackson, WR, Seahawks: Loved him in the preseason, but Matt Hasselbeck (sprained knee) is out for three weeks and hoping for big things from unpolished Seneca Wallace is akin to drawing an inside straight.