Football By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

October 17, 2006
First-Half Playcalling Tendencies

Let’s sort through all the key stats and piece together what’s happened thus far beyond the wins and touchdowns to see which teams and players have the best foundation for future success.

Now, as Yogi Berra famously said, “Predictions are hard. Especially about the future.” There’s no doubt what the most important numbers are. But performance varies so far from “average” on any given Sunday that we simply can’t predict whether teams will continue to exhibit tendencies.

For example, the Bears entered Week 6 with the best QB protection of any team (one sack allowed every 32 attempts). But the line fell apart against the Cardinals (who were 19th in the league in sack percentage). Without protection, Rex Grossman and the Bears passing game predictably crumbled. But predicting that the protection would crumble was impossible.

Similarly, there’s no question that the teams that pass the ball most efficiently relative to their opponents will be most successful (as long as you subtract sack yardage from each team’s yardage total). But poorer passing teams commonly defy expectation and are more efficient in the air than that week’s usually superior passing opponent.

Last week, some interesting e-mails questioned the overarching importance of these net yards per attempt (YPA) stats I cite. “Doesn’t net yards per carry (YPC) also correlate to winning?” a reader asked. Yes, it does. Just not nearly as well. In ’06, the top 10 teams in net YPC are 29-25 while the top 10 in net YPA are 39-15. I know that no announcer in the history of televised NFL action has ever said, “The key to the game is going to be who throws the ball the best.” But who cares?

Before going on to predict some individual performers, let’s look at some keys stats that shape performance but also rarely (if ever) get mentioned.

First-half playcalling splits are key because they tell us who wants to run or throw to extremes, before the score unduly influences these decisions. The Eagles remain the most pass-happy bunch in football (70 percent first-half passes). But the Seahawks (63 percent), Bengals (63 percent), Dolphins (61 percent) and Bears (59 percent) are also aggressive relative to their peers.

Inside the opponents’ 10 yard line, teams generally run more than pass. But the Steelers (80 percent runs) and Jets (74 percent runs) are most conservative. Other teams running at least twice as much as they throw inside the 10 are the Niners, Chargers, Cowboys, Jaguars, Panthers, Lions, Giants and Cardinals.

Only one team has twice as many passes as runs near paydirt, the Raiders (just seven total plays inside the opposing 10 all year). The Bears, Bengals, Bucs, Dolphins, Packers, Rams and Ravens are the only other teams that pass more than run in these situations. (All stats courtesy of www.RotoAction.com.)

Buy

Chad Johnson, WR, Bengals: Only the Raiders have fewer than the nine plays the Bengals have snapped inside the opponent’s 10. Johnson will get his usual allotment of passes once the Bengals protect better.

L.J. Smith, TE, Eagles: Brian Westbrook (knee) is going to be iffy all year and Smith will play a larger role when the Eagles look to control the ball with underneath passes.

Hold

Laveranues Coles, WR, Jets: He’s a very underrated player who has great chemistry with his QB, catching 66 percent of his 58 targets (the third highest target total in football).

Anquan Boldin, WR, Cardinals: Bet on Larry Fitzgerald (hamstring) getting back later rather than sooner. Boldin was targeted 18 times Monday night with the Cardinals playing from ahead the whole night.

Todd Heap, TE, Ravens: The Ravens like to throw near paydirt and Heap will continue to be the prime beneficiary. Heap is also the NFL’s most targeted TE by a mile.

Marc Bulger, QB, Rams: St. Louis has run 44 plays inside the opposing 10 yards line, the most even on a per-game basis. And only the Ravens are 10 passes within Bulger’s 24 near paydirt.

Sell

Chad Pennington, QB, Jets: The Jets need to reverse their red-zone playcalling tendencies for Pennington to continue his TD productivity. Most of his scoring strikes have come from much greater distances.

Terrell Owens, WR, Cowboys: Drew Bledsoe is still a statue. Yes, three TDs versus the pathetic Texans secondary. But only six passes were thrown his way. And he’s not talking to his position coach.