Football By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

October 10, 2006
Sacks Destroy Downfield Passing Game

Big news this week was made by Miami, as Nick Saban first said that Daunte Culpepper was sitting due to shoulder problems before finally fessing up and admitting he was benched for taking too many sacks. The former all pro was dumped 21 times the first four weeks, once every 6.3 attempts.

For many years, statisticians employed by numerous NFL teams have calculated that each sack translates into about three points on the scoreboard. Culpepper’s replacement, Joey Harrington, was dumped just once in the loss at New England. This week, Saban says he’s sticking with Harrington.

Sacks generally kill passing productivity. The most sacked teams tend to be near the bottom in yards per completion, the least sacked squads near the top. Thus far, Raiders QBs have been dumped once about every five attempts. The Bears are the best at protecting the passer, a sack every 32 attempts. Chicago is second in yards per completion, the Raiders 28th (so don’t expect explosive passing plays from Randy Moss any time soon).

Astute NFL observers have noticed a decrease in big pass plays for the Bengals, Seahawks and Steelers. Many don’t know it, but the Steelers were No. 1 last year in yards per attempt, per completion and efficiency in throwing TD passes. But these three teams all now struggle to protect the passer, as the Steelers have been sacked the eighth most frequently, the Seahawks seventh and Bengals fourth.

The yards per completion number of the Eagles and Donovan McNabb (14.61) is very noteworthy, as it is a more than two yards better than the next best team (Chicago) and harkens back to the era before the Niners offense took hold. McNabb has no shot at the all-time mark held by the Bengals Greg Cook (17.5 per completion in 1969, a shade better than Joe Namath’s 17.4 mark in 1972). Ironically, Cook’s coordinator that year was Bill Walsh. Today, league averages tend to be around 10.5 yards per completion (it’s 10.6 thus far in ’06).

The least explosive passing offense in football is that of the Browns (8.87 yard per completion). But the Panthers are second worst (8.94) even with Steve Smith back in action the last two games.

Now, let’s look at the numbers to project more individual performers.

Buy

Jerious Norwood, RB, Falcons: The Falcons are tied for the most red zone possessions per game (with the Chargers), but average less than three points on these possessions. Warrick Dunn is ineffective as the field gets shorter and Atlanta thinks Norwood can run between the tackles in addition to being the fastest back in the NFL.

Kellen Winslow, TE, Browns: He’s caught 30 of the 35 passes thrown his way. The Browns must know this, so expect more opportunities and production.

Bryant Johnson, WR, Cardinals: Expect Larry Fitzgerald (hamstring) to be out closer to five weeks than to two. Edgerrin James wants enough carries to get him to 100 yards finally (about 50 should do it). But that’s not realistic.

Hold

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers: He said last week that he’s not able to process information on the field the same way as before the motorcycle accident scrambled his helmet-less head. He should know.

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers: Michael Turner (6.8 yards per carry) closed out the Chargers win Sunday night, not Tomlinson. Given his incredible workload the past five years, Tomlinson’s best days may well be behind him.

Sell

Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers: He’s had six passes per game thrown to him versus 10 last year as Martyball has returned to San Diego with a vengeance.

Joey Galloway, WR, Bucs: The good game on Sunday is illusory, as rookie QBs tend to perform worse as opponents compile film on their tendencies. Galloway has caught just 42 percent of his targets (top receivers are generally around 60 percent).

Greg Jennings, WR, Packers: The big plays are masking one key stat: the rookie Jennings has caught just 49 percent of passes thrown his way.

Chris Chambers, WR, Dolphins: He’s fourth in targets, but has caught a pitiful 44 percent of them. The pass protection problems and loss of Culpepper make explosive passing plays less likely.