Football By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

October 3 , 2006
Bears, Grossman for Real

As the league makes the quarter turn, the Chicago Bears are clearly the best team in football.

Historically, any team that averages more than two yards more per pass attempt (YPA) than it allows is guaranteed a top playoff seed and almost certain to win the Super Bowl. Right now, the Bears are plus-2.67 in net YPA. (No team finished over plus-2.00 in net YPA in ’04 or ’05.)

The best offensive and defensive teams always have one thing in common: passing and defending the pass far better than league average.

The teams thus far that can’t stop anyone from scoring are the Titans, Texans, Lions, Niners and Packers. All are well over the league average of 6.50 YPA allowed and Houston, Tennessee and Green Bay are about two yards worse per attempt. Detroit’s fourth best run defense (yards per carry) is inconsequential.

The great scoring teams all share a superior passing offense. The Eagles are slightly ahead of the Bears in offensive YPA. The Colts are the other team scoring consistently well each week and they, too, are among the YPA leaders. Rushing? Chicago is 27th in yards per carry, Indy 20th and the Eagles don’t bother (over 70 percent passes in the first half).

It works the other way, too. A very low YPA is attached to every team that either allows or scores the fewest points. The defensive stalwarts thus far are the Chargers, Ravens, Bears, Falcons and Chiefs. Those teams have combined to allow five TD passes. Kansas City is likely for real defensively, as they are second in the NFL with a 4.93 YPA with zero TD passes allowed against some mediocre-to-decent passing teams. While most of the defensive dominators do play good run defense, the Chiefs are merely average and the Bears below that.

Offenses to avoid due to massive problems in the passing game: Raiders, Bucs, Titans and Dolphins. Combined, these teams have seven TD passes (Chicago’s Rex Grossman has eight). Daunte Culpepper has remained in funk despite back-to-back matchups against the Texans and Titans, whose secondaries have been flayed by every other QB they’ve faced.

Now, let’s try to predict individual performance by looking more deeply into the numbers.

Buy

Rex Grossman, QB, Bears: Statement game versus Seattle. On the surface, the Bears don’t seem aggressive enough as they’ve passed 42 percent of the time on first down (38 percent last year). But Chicago throws 57 percent on first down during the first half (about average). Expect that number to increase.

Marvin Harrison, WR, Colts: This is the first time Harrison has gone four straight games without a TD since the end of the 1999 season. But he started slow last year and is second in the league in targets (times thrown to) with 46.

Andre Johnson, WR, Texans: Johnson has caught 78.9 percent of his targets, the best rate of any receiver with more than 25 (the Giants Amani Toomer is 20-for-25). David Carr has been very efficient. The Texans will play from behind. Houston also hasn’t been able to run near the goal line, while Carr is four-for-four converting inside-the-five passes into TDs.

Hold

Donovan McNabb, QB, Eagles: He has 15 passing plays over 25 yards already (Alex Smith is second with 10). But he’s already faced three of our rotten pass defenses plus the Giants (22nd in YPA allowed). Starting receivers Reggie Brown and Donte Stallworth have shoulder and hamstring woes, respectively.

Chester Taylor, RB, Vikings: He’s been stuffed 13 times, second most to Willis McGahee. The schedule is looking less friendly than it seemed in August. But his toughest stretch is behind him and last week (10 carries for 23 yards) was likely a low.

Sell

LaMont Jordan, RB, Raiders: Sunday’s 128-yard, one-TD performance is not likely to be matched unless the Raiders can generate a passing game. Oakland’s 3.01 YPA (including sacks) is by far the worst in football. The Raiders have two snaps inside the opposing five (no runs).

Frank Gore, RB, Niners: He’s fumbled in four straight games. And he went three straight losing a fumble on the opposing goal line. Rookie Michael Robinson is expected to get goal-line carries going forward.