Football By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

September 27, 2006
History Yields to Alexander, Leinart

Two historic Week 3 happenings haven’t gotten much attention because the reigning NFL MVP and Heisman Trophy winner made big news Monday.

Before explaining why Shaun Alexander’s injury is not surprising and putting Matt Leinart’s chance for success in rookie context when he actually does start, let’s examine the two things never before seen on Sunday.

The New York Jets won a road game (versus Buffalo) despite allowing a 300-yard passer and 150-yard rusher. In yards from scrimmage, the Jets were minus-219. That’s generally worth about 14 points. But the Bills lost (by eight) because the Jets had two more sacks (generally worth three points each), one more interception (six points), recovered two more fumbles (two points each) and returned one of those fumbles for a TD. That more than erases the entire Bills yardage advantage. So New York won the game on field and on the stat sheet, too.

History was also made by the Redskins Mark Brunell, who completed his first 22 passes. Only three traveled more than five yards from scrimmage and just one more than seven. Brunell has a league-worst 14.9 QB rating on 11-to-20 yard throws and his 60.2 rating last year on throws that distance was 34th in the NFL.

Shaun Alexander (broken foot) was set to become just the 35th back in NFL history to surpass 1,800 carries. Of those, 11 were at or very near the end. So, consider the following ticking time bombs (career carries in parentheses): Corey Dillon (2,460), Edgerrin James (2,256), Warrick Dunn (2,033), Tiki Barber (1,942), Fred Taylor (1,895) and LaDainian Tomlinson (1,752).

Before looking at some other individual performers (including Leinart), let’s isolate team playcalling tendencies by calculating percentage of pass plays during only the first half of games. QBs and receivers are likely to continue to shine for the Eagles (71 percent passes), Colts (67 percent), Packers (65 percent), Cardinals (62 percent), Cowboys (63 percent), Jets (62 percent) and Giants (62 percent). Running games are at the forefront for the Chargers (35 percent) and Falcons (41 percent).

Buy

Joseph Addai, RB, Colts: Peyton Manning is the one QB in football who could throw every play and not be stopped most Sundays. However, to beat good teams, you need to throw early and then beat the clock late with the run. Starter Dominic Rhodes is averaging 2.3 yards on first down, 3.0 in the second half.

Chad Johnson, WR, Bengals: Just one catch last week and only seven targets per game (10 last year). A public outburst is coming as soon as the Bengals lose a game. The private one very likely has already happened.

Willie Parker, RB, Steelers: He’s the goal-line back, which is shocking considering his lack of size and experience in the role. Pittsburgh likes to run the ball in the red zone (second highest run percentage inside the opposing 20 last year, 64.4 percent).

Hold

Matt Leinart, QB, Cardinals: How will he perform when Dennis Green actually does start him? Here is the rookie performance of the last six QBs to enter the Hall of Fame (pro-rated over a 16 game season): 230-for-414 for 2,898 yards with 16 TDs and 16 picks. This stat courtesy of Elias Sports Bureau, which notes that half of the six had other professional experience before joining the NFL.

Maurice Morris, RB, Seahawks: More of a change-of-pace back and the Seahawks are expected to use four wideouts often with Mack Strong as the lone setback (to better protect Matt Hasselbeck, who is throwing too many picks).

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars: Had 135 yards from scrimmage last week. But Fred Taylor has been productive enough to limit Drew’s upside to change-of-pace back. Taylor remains a huge injury risk, for reasons noted above.

Sell

J.P. Losman, QB, Bills: It remains to be seen whether he’s earned the trust of the coaching staff, which has thrown the ball just 37 percent of the time on first down and third least often in the first half (47 percent).

Cadillac Williams, RB, Bucs: There’s another rookie QB slated for extensive action after Chris Simms lost his spleen: Bruce Gradkowski. I’m not giving him the Hall of Famer comps, so you’ll have to imagine how ugly this very likely will be.