Football By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

January 19, 2007
Championship Week By The Numbers

Neither the No. 1 or No. 2 seed made it into a conference championship game for the first time since the 1970 merger (excluding the strike-shortened 1987 season).

Peyton Manning (39.6 QB rating versus Baltimore) was carried into another AFC title game versus the Patriots by a suddenly ferocious Colts defense. Golden Boy Tom Brady threw three picks and posted a 57.6 QB rating to beat a Chargers team bent on self-destruction. The Bears barely survived a challenge from a Seahawks team left for dead by most, courtesy of some big plays in the passing game from much-maligned Rex Grossman. The only crisply played game last weekend wasn’t as close as the 27-24 score, as the Saints ripped the Eagles with 27 first downs (to 14) and 435 net yards.

The NFC has gone chalk, with the No. 1-seeded Bears at home against the No. 2-seeded Saints. The AFC Championship Game has that familiar ring of Colts vs. Patriots, only in Indy now for the first time.

Vegas expects photo finishes, with the Bears and Colts favored by three points to open the week. Generally, home teams are favored championship week by at least a touchdown.

The key statistics that I used to rank teams collectively argue in favor of these close lines, with narrow advantages given to the home teams strictly based on whatever home-field advantage is worth (typically three points).

Let’s look more closely at the two most important of these statistics, net yards per pass attempt (YPA) and net points (TD passes) per pass attempt (PPA). This moves the games a little more decisively in favor of the home teams, though the road teams ranked No. 1 in 2006 in net YPA (the Saints) and net PPA (the Patriots). The Pats and Saints are mediocre in the other category while the home teams ranked at least top six among the 32 teams in both.

The Bears defense has been mediocre since the loss of DT Tommy Harris. The secondary was shredded by the anemic Bucs and journeyman QB Tim Rattay in a Week 15 OT victory. Brady sliced and diced them Thanksgiving weekend. And the Rams posted 28 first downs Week 14. Now Chicago faces Drew Brees and a running game that generated over 200 yards versus Philly. With no significant wind in the forecast, expect the Saints offense to carry the day.

Manning has posted a 111 QB rating versus the Patriots in his last two meetings, both in New England. It’s Brady who’s struggled against the opposing defense most recently, with perhaps his worst game ever in the prior meeting (no TDs and four picks). Even if the Colts defense crashes back to earth, Manning is unlikely to be ordinary for the third straight week against a defense he’s apparently figured out.

Now let’s forecast some key individual performers.

Buy

Marvin Harrison, WR, Colts: He’s got 17 catches for 273 yards and four scores the last two meetings against the Patriots. But Pats CB Assante Samuel seemingly gets better every week.

Bernard Berrian, WR, Bears: The big-play Berrian was back for the Bears, hauling in a bomb and dropping one other slightly off-target, certain TD pass. The Saints defense was 31st in percentage of TD passes allowed and gave up another home run last week to Donte Stallworth.

Hold

Rex Grossman, QB, Bears: Throw out the disastrous finale against Green Bay that was treated like a preseason game and Grossman has a 89 QB rating with 6 TDs and just one pick (a tipped pass) the last four games (including playoffs). That’s plenty good enough if the Bears defense can recapture mid-season form.

Drew Brees, QB, Saints: The Panthers, Ravens and Eagles all have pass defenses comparable to the Bears and perhaps even better given recent trends. Versus those opponents this year, Brees has 1,250 passing yards in basically four games and an 89.5 QB rating (7 TDs, 6 picks).

John Carney, K, Saints: He’s 21-for-26 the past two years on grass in a game likely to be decided by a field goal (long of 49 yards).

Sell

Colts Defense: That was some New Year’s Resolution for the Indy run defense. But more impressive is allowing three first downs on 22 third-down plays this postseason. Indy was last in the category in the regular season. Brady was 4-for-17 converting them versus San Diego.