Football By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

January 9, 2007
Divisional Week By The Numbers

The bye week is an added advantage for the four home teams this NFL playoff weekend. And it’s a considerable one.

Since 1990, No. 1 and No. 2 seeds are 51-13 in this divisional playoff round. Furthermore, 26 of the 32 Super Bowl participants since 1990 were off Week 18.

Also note the last five Super Bowl teams were 37-9 in December. That is another winning indicator for the top-seeded and well-rested Ravens, Chargers and Bears. But it suggests the Eagles (5-0 in December) might be able to buck the trend at New Orleans (3-2 with a meaningless final loss).

Before we predict some individual performers, let’s quickly look at the games.

The Colts return to Baltimore to face a Ravens defense that’s fattened up on sacks and turnovers all season (league-best 28 picks, a sack every 8.5 attempts and six defensive touchdowns). The regular season Peyton Manning is the most efficient, explosive and mistake-free QB who ever buckled a chin strap. The postseason Peyton? A different story altogether. Last week, three picks against an ordinary Chiefs defense, one nearly returned for a TD. Manning gets sacked once every 37 attempts, but can be pressured into bad decisions, especially in January (nine picks in his last 198 postseason attempts).

The Eagles look to avenge an early season loss in New Orleans. All Pro CB Lito Shephard (elbow) is out versus one of the league’s most explosive passing offenses. Saints WRs Joe Horn again is questionable, but hasn’t been needed all year with RB Reggie Bush (88 catches) emerging as a receiver and rookie phenom Marques Colston finally off the injury report. Still, Eagles RB Brian Westbrook will be the best and most explosive player on the field.

The Seahawks miraculously advanced when the Cowboys couldn’t execute a field goal placement in the minute and change. This is the one game on the slate that Vegas sees as a blowout. But there are bad trends for the Bears beyond QB Rex Grossman. Since DT Tommy Harris was sidelined, the Bears’ pass rush has been de-clawed (one sack every 20 attempts post-Harris, down from 1 every 12 with him). Matt Hasselbeck must rebound from a terrible October performance in Chicago (40 QB rating, five sacks). Both QBs are too mistake prone this year (Hasselbeck finished 27th in interception percentage, Grossman 29th).

The best is saved for last this weekend: New England at San Diego. First-year starting QB Philip Rivers has declined each month, though remained above average in December (85.7 QB rating). He’ll likely have to be good again Sunday because Bill Belichick forces opponents out of their comfort zone, which for the Chargers is LT. Rivers must be efficient and mistake free when emphasizing Antonio Gates and the passing game. Red zone efficiency is key. The Chargers score TDs a league best 68 percent of red zone trips, while the Pats defense is the second stingiest (34 percent).

Buy

Jamal Lewis, RB, Ravens: Last week, the Colts held the Chiefs to 1-for-11 on third down conversions after finishing last in football in that stat (47 percent conversions allowed). That was a fluke and Lewis will get the carries and yards Larry Johnson left on the field.

Donte Stallworth, WR, Eagles: Forget pass yardage allowed (where the Saints finished third) when assessing Stallworth and Focus instead on the Saints ranking in TD passes per attempt (31st).

Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers: Even Belichick is unlikely to design a scheme that shuts down Tomlinson and Gates (25 less passes thrown to him this year in two more games than in ‘05).

Hold

Drew Brees, QB, Saints: The Eagles pass defense is top notch (third in yards per attempts, seventh in TD percentage). But it looked lost in the fourth quarter last week with Shephard sidelined.

Sell

Shaun Alexander, RB, Seahawks: The Bears are 11th in yards per rush allowed. Alexander has been very spotty since returning from his broken foot, which bothered him again at the end of the Cowboys game.

Marvin Harrison, WR, Colts: Zero TD catches in his last six postseason games. Indy’s dynamite in the red zone (66 percent TDs), but faces the league’s best inside-the-20 defense (33 percent TDs).