Football By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

January 2, 2007
Wild Card Week By The Numbers

Let’s look at the angles that most are missing this Wild Card week and see if we can get a firmer handle on the upcoming games and key players.

Larry Johnson will very likely run wild for the Chiefs in the early game at Indy on Saturday. But that guarantees nothing, as Priest Holmes had 176 yards on just 24 carries in a 2004 home playoff loss to the Colts. Peyton Manning only needs a ring to be viewed as perhaps the best quarterback in NFL history. He’s taking snaps against the 21st ranked pass defense (yards per pass attempt, YPA, allowed). The Colts should strive to minimize the impact of the Larry Johnson by generating early TDs with their passing game. But note that Manning has come out of the gates relatively slowly all year (six first quarter TD passes versus 13 in the third quarter).

Later Saturday, the Cowboys travel into Seattle to face the Seahawks and their famed 12th man. Seattle will likely be without three of their top four cornerbacks. But Tony Romo seems so last year now (more picks than TDs in December). And the Cowboys secondary also is a mess (16 TD passes allowed in December alone). Will the Seahawks look to establish Shaun Alexander (a paltry 3.6 yards per rush in 2006) versus a solid Cowboys run defense or master the obvious and attack with QB Matt Hasselbeck (mistake prone this year at 27th in interception percentage) and a banged up receiving crew? Anticipate a high-scoring, aerial shootout.

Sunday’s matchups pit divisional opponents who split during the regular season (Jets-Patriots, Giants-Eagles).

The Jets improving pass defense may be illusory given they’ve faced the 14th, 17th, 27th, 22nd, 18th, 26th, 30th and 32nd pass offenses (yards per attempt) consecutively to close the year. This streak did begin versus Tom Brady (shoulder), who has really struggled with intermediate throws that had been money for him in the past (64 rating on them versus 99.2 n ’05). Note also that just 15 percent of Brady’s attempts traveled 11-to-20 yards from scrimmage (23.4 percent in ’05, league average is 20 percent). Chad Pennington must play mistake free (17th in interception percentage) if the Jets have any hope of winning a likely low-scoring game (Pats are second and Jets sixth in points allowed).

Looking for a Super Bowl sleeper? Last year, Pittsburgh was No. 1 in net YPA and net points (TD passes) per attempt. This year, the Eagles have the highest combined rankings in those two most important stat categories. The Giants are looking to ride Tiki Barber against the NFL’s 24th-ranked run defense. But the Eagles bottled up Barber in prior matchups and are likely unconcerned with Eli Manning (a pitiful 5.43 YPA since November). The Giants are playing around Manning now while his counterpart, Jeff Garcia, has surpassed not only expectations but the excellent pre-injury play of Donovan McNabb.

Now let’s examine some more key players.

Buy

Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys: He punctuated a bad December with a solid game (112 QB rating) against the inept Lions pass defense. Throw the Seattle defensive stats out the window given their crippled secondary and expect a large dose of Romo November magic (124.7 QB rating).

Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs: Historically bad run defense versus the new single-season record-holder for most carries. Johnson’s huge day is all but certain, but it probably won’t be enough if Peyton Manning (31 TDs, 9 picks) is even average.

Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts: Ty Law has had good success against Marvin Harrison. Wayne, though, should be able to abuse Patrick Surtain on the other side despite the Chiefs success in yielding just seven TDs to No. 1 and No. 2 receivers all year.

D.J. Hackett, WR, Seahawks: Injuries have elevated his role in the passing game. He’s battling a sore groin himself, but Darrell Jackson is expected to be sidelined and Deion Branch has been whisper quiet (zero TDs and not more than five catches or 61 yards since November 27).

Sell

Trent Green, QB, Chiefs: He’s had just one solid game all year (at Cleveland Week 13) and finished with more picks (9) than TD passes (7) for just the second time in his long career.

Chad Pennington, QB, Jets: How does he do on intermediate (11-to-20-yard) throws? Just a 73 QB rating with 20.4 percent of total attempts this distance (15 percent for Brady).