Football By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

December 26, 2006
There's Power in the Passing Game

We strive here to find the best statistical measures for predicting individual and team performance. But much NFL dogma gets revealed as mere myth in the process.

For example, viewers watching the Saints and the Giants on Sunday were told that New Orleans “has the league’s fifth-best passing defense.” With all the data now literally at our fingertips, why persist in measuring quality with the same crude, stone-age statistical tools used by our forefathers?

Yes, the Saints, at the time, were fifth in fewest passing yards allowed. But QBs attempted the fourth fewest attempts against them. And it’s journalistic malpractice to ignore the fact that New Orleans entered Week 16 with the third highest (worst) percentage of TD passes on these attempts.

What’s mythologized more than anything else in the NFL is the importance of the running game. Arguing that running the ball well is more important than throwing it is much like arguing that hitting doubles is more important in baseball than hitting homers. (Of course, Dodgers announcer Steve Lyons said just that last spring.)

Now let me say straight out that this is in no way meant to imply that teams shouldn’t want to run well and stop the run. We’re merely talking priorities here.

Knock the notion of knocking heads and many persist in maintaining that success here magically ripples through other areas of the team. The best example of this is the long-held belief that teams that run the ball well help their defense by “keeping it off the field and fresh.”

Wisdom or myth? The average defense this year allows 20.5 points per game. So the teams that run the ball best on average should at least have defenses that beat that, right? Nope, the 10 best run offenses allow 21.3 points per game. That’s not even better than what the defenses of the teams with the 10 worst rushing offensive allow (20 PPG). This year, at least, there is zero correlation between running well and helping your defense.

Converting third downs on offense does appear to help the defense: 18.8 PPG allowed by the 10 teams with the highest offensive third-down efficiency, 21.8 PPG allowed by the 10 worst.

We’re also told that teams that run he ball best do well on third downs because they generally convert third and short. Wrong again. Teams that average the most per rush convert 37.5 percent of third downs, the worst rushing teams, 37.3 percent (38.4 is average).

Remember, the vast majority of third-down plays are passes (this year, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, 76 percent). So, no surprise that the 10 teams that throw the ball best (yards per attempt) average 43.4 percent third-down success while the 10 worst convert, on average, 35.7 percent.

You want to help your defense in the NFL? Throw the ball well, especially on third down.

Here are notes on surprising individual performers with an eye toward 2007.

Buy

Frank Gore, RB, Niners: He lost more fumbles this year an any back had total in 2005. This resulted in the loss of goal-line carries. But Gore runs with great power and purpose and should be luckier/better at holding the ball in ’07.

Cadillac Williams, RB, Bucs: I said he would bust. Now, people have given up on him. There’s still a lot of ability here that will be forgotten by too many next August.

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars: Can you believe the five-foot-seven Drew has 15 TDs? NFL coaches generally are good at factoring in the physics of size. But Drew’s low center of gravity helps him bounce off taller would-be tacklers.

Hold

Steven Jackson, RB, Rams: Quietly has 88 catches. He’s less than 80 total yards behind LaDainian Tomlinson. He’ll markedly improve his scoring proficiency (12 TDs) with some fortification along the offensive line.

Sell

Drew Brees, QB, Saints: The comeback player of the year talk is silly. He was hurt in his last game of 2005. As said previously, the historic long-ball proficiency is unsustainable. Ignore these splits and you’ll transform him from underrated to overrated like everyone else.

Randy Moss, WR, Raiders: The Raiders have seven TD passes this year. That’s bad. My second favorite stat is that Panthers receivers have one less rushing TD than the Panthers tailbacks (who have combined for three).