Football By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

December 19, 2006
Quantifying AFC Dominance

The regular season is nearing a close and many items remain on the menu. So you’re getting a double helping of stats this week. First, let’s look at the shocking disparity between the AFC and NFC. Then let’s define garbage time and determine how it’s impacted team and individual statistics thus far in 2006.

AFC teams currently are 38-22 against NFC opponents. Only two of the 16 NFC squads, the Cowboys and Seahawks, have winning records in interconference games (each team plays four). Seattle falls to 2-2 if they lose this week to San Diego.

Since Week 7, the AFC has won 32 of 41 games against the NFC, scoring 350 more points overall (8.5 per game). So, if AFC and NFC opponents rank similarly in key statistical categories, the AFC team still can reasonably be tabbed an 8.5-point favorite on a neutral field. Expect the Super Bowl line to be heavily skewed toward the AFC champion no matter how each representative plays in January.

Garbage time has long vexed those seeking meaningful statistical analysis. The consensus view is that we must find a way to excise these stats because of their corrupting effect on “real stats” compiled when outcomes are more in doubt.

The trick is figuring out where to draw the lines. If the criteria is a point differential at a point of the game that a team never has recovered from, the sample size will be ridiculously small. For example, the Colts beat the Bucs in 2003 down 21 points with four minutes remaining in regulation. If that doesn’t qualify as garbage time, what does?

Whatever our definition, “garbage time” will have exceptions to the rule (i.e., a team winning despite trailing by that much at that point). The parity in today’s game forces us to set the bar lower than some like in order to get enough data from which to draw conclusions. So we’ll aggressively establish down 14 points at any point in the fourth quarter as “garbage time.”

Thus far this year, there have been only 7,096 yards passing after these conditions have been met (if the gap narrows, we keep counting those stats). I say “only” because NFL teams have thrown for over 92,000 yards this year. The QB rating here is slightly higher than overall (just over 80 as opposed to just below it). TD rates go up slightly (TDs every 22 passes instead of every 25). Interception rates similarly rise. Yards per attempt is virtually unchanged. In terms of quantitative or qualitative impact on statistics, garbage time (at least this year) seems much ado about nothing.

Individually, only David Carr (Texans) and Marc Bulger (Rams) have benefited significantly from garbage time. Each has five TD passes, 50 percent of Carr’s total and just over 25 percent of Bulger’s. Carr and Bulger have 17 and 12 percent of total passing yards in garbage time, respectively (league average is 7.7 percent).

Now some recommendations based on these and other stats.

Buy

Derek Anderson, QB, Browns: In his second start, Anderson completes 13 straight passes and two scores versus the ferocious Ravens (who cut him in ’05). He should start the Browns remaining games, not Charlie Frye (hand). Tampa Bay is on deck (worst pass defense in football).

Laveranues Coles, WR, Jets: The Jets pass passively against top defenses, but Coles typically owns the Dolphins (four TDs the last three meetings). Miami has a break-but-don’t-bend defense (42 TD passes allowed in 30 games under Coach Saban).

Hold

Drew Brees, QB, Saints: He’s having a great year based on unsustainable effectiveness on bombs (11-for-16 with seven TDs on passes traveling 30-plus air yards). So a bad day from him doesn’t seemingly violate nature’s laws as does, say, one from Peyton Manning.

Jay Cutler, QB, Broncos: If he pops, you’ll see the seed he threw 65 air yards to Javon Walker for the next 50 years on NFL highlight reels. But he still looks like a rookie on most other throws.

Sell

Chris Chambers, WR, Dolphins: He’s disappointing because Joey Harrington can’t complete a pass over 10 yards (15.7 QB rating with seven picks on 63 11-to-20 yard throws).

Bears defense: Without dynamic DT Tommy Harris (IR), Chicago can no longer generate heat without blitzing (sack every 20 attempts post-injury versus one every 12 at midseason).