Football By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

December 12, 2006
Does Running Well Help You Pass?

Most NFL observers acknowledge the chicken-and-egg conundrum that exists when trying to figure whether a good running game creates opportunities for big passing plays or vice versa.

But what’s generally ignored altogether is the underlying assumption that there exists any relationship whatsoever between running and passing games.

The stats thus far in 2006 provide some surprising answers. Our analysis is simple. We’re looking at the top and bottom 10 teams in yards per rush and yards per pass and seeing how well they do in the other category. In other words, do good passing teams run the ball better than good running teams throw it?

This year, there’s no significant correlation between running and throwing (or vice versa). The Eagles and Chargers are the only teams near the top in yards per rush that throw the ball with even above-average efficiency (though both are well above). And the most explosive passing team in football, New Orleans, is 28th in yards per rush. Plus, the 10 least-efficient running teams actually throw the ball better than the most-efficient running teams.

I hear the shouts of the leather helmets: “It’s not how well you run it, just how often.” Here, they may have a point. The top 10 teams in rushing attempts collectively throw better (6.48 yards per attempt) than the league average (6.39). But five of these teams are below average in passing, including the teams that run most often, the Falcons and Jaguars.

Let’s reverse the equation and examine how well the best passing teams run the ball. Again, there’s no relationship to be found. Again, contrary to conventional wisdom, the best passing teams run worse than the worst passing teams (though both groups are slightly above average – 4.12 per rush). In fairness, the Falcons (league-leading 5.62 per carry) inflate the overall average the 10 worst passing teams, as only three others are above league average in running efficiency.

This year’s data suggests that it’s accurate only to say that running the ball helps the passing game only when you run it a lot and so slightly that it may not even be statistically significant.

The stats from 2005 generally support this conclusion. But 2004 is a fly in the ointment. Then, the conventional wisdom was correct. The most efficient running and passing teams performed much better than average in the other category. And the least efficient running and passing teams much worse. But the pull of each was about equal with perhaps a feather’s worth of difference tipping the scale ever slightly in favor of the running game exerting more influence over the passing game.

Overall, however, we must conclude that any sort of influence one area has over the other is at best slight and may exist only in the imaginations of NFL coaches and their emissaries in the broadcast booth.

Now, some player recommendations based on these and other stats.

Buy

Rex Grossman, QB, Bears: Yes, the Rams are the Lambs when the opponent has the ball. But Grossman has three more passing pushovers on the schedule: the Bucs, Packers and Lions. For all the knocks, he’ll finish with 25 TD passes.

Reche Caldwell, WR, Texans: The Dolphins manhandled the Patriots but forget about that with the Texans stumbling into town. Caldwell remains Tom Brady’s favorite wideout and TE Ben Watson (leg) may be hampered.

Hold

Reggie Bush, RB, Saints: Maybe it should say “WR” instead of “RB.” He’s on pace for 97 catches and Deuce McAllister is clearly the workhorse tailback. Bush is finally making the impact catches that most thought would be commonplace right away.

Vince Young, QB, Titans: Even more valuable right now in reality than he is in fantasy. In ’07, he’ll likely be better and quite possibly much better. If the latter occurs, put him on the short list of league MVP candidates.

Sell

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars: I’ve loved him more and longer than almost everyone outside the Jones-Drew family. But Fred Taylor (131 rushing yards) missed the entire second with a tweaked hammy against the Charmin-soft Colts.

Artose Pinner, RB, Vikings: He stuck it to his former employers last week in Detroit (125 yards, three TDs). But Chester Taylor (ribs) is expected back in the starting lineup Sunday (Jets).