Football By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

December 5, 2006
Measuring QB's Functional Arm Strength

Tony Romo is just the latest proof that NFL scouts are clueless when it comes to figuring out who is going to make it as a professional QB.

Their task is not one to be envied, as the consensus is that great QBs are mentally wired for success and that there is not yet a scientific way to test this wiring. So teams obsess about more quantifiable things like arm strength. But there is ample evidence that this quality is vastly overrated.

Teams don’t throw deep enough for the long-ball to matter much. Cover 2 defenses have basically taken the bomb out of the playbook. Today’s money throw travels 11-to-20 yards from scrimmage before finding a receiver. Velocity can certainly aid a QB here, but accuracy, touch and timing appear more important. My functional arm strength statistic isolates these throws for every QB and ranks them accordingly.

NFL teams throw 19 percent of passes this distance (resulting in about 17 percent of all completions). The average QB rating on 11-to-20-yard throws is 80.

Leaders here are not poster boys for cannon arms. The numbers in parentheses are all QB ratings on throws 11-to-20 yards from scrimmage. Of course, Romo (124) is there right behind Peyton Manning (130). Chiefs backup Damon Huard (121) is 17th in attempts and the coaches called these passes 26 percent of the time for him compared to just 12 percent for returning starter Trent Green. San Diego’s Philip Rivers (108), Seattle’s Matt Hasselbeck (107), New Orleans’ Drew Brees (104), Jacksonville’s David Garrard (100) and Tennessee’s Vince Young (97) all shine but were either poorly regarded as NFL prospect and questioned for arm strength or, in the case of Young and Rivers, throwing mechanics.

The bottom of the rankings are populated by QBs once viewed as poster boys for downfield throwing: Joey Harrington (league-worst 18 QB rating), Drew Bledsoe (36) and Matt Leinart (43).

These stats provide keen insight into why various QBs were benched. Bledsoe, Jake Plummer (51), Mark Brunell (52) and Andrew Walter (29) all struggle mightily on these 11-to-20-yard throws. The other QB benched for performance reasons, Kurt Warner (79), was actually about average. (But nothing Dennis Green does makes much sense.)

The Vikings Brad Johnson also is rumored to have his head on the chopping block. But his coaches have let him down, calling 11-to-20-yard passes just 15 percent of the time despite Johnson’s 91 rating on these attempts (113 last year).

Other QBs whose rating on these throws calls for much more than their below-average allotment of attempts are Romo, Hasselbeck, Brees and the Jets’ Chad Pennington (92 rating). Houston’s David Carr is the most striking case, sporting a 96 QB rating on these attempts while attempting a league-low 10 percent of passes this distance. (Jon Kitna leads among current starters with 25 percent.)

The Giants, Bears and Cardinals all are well above average in percentage of 11-to-20-yard attempts despite playing QBs who struggle mightily on these throws.

Now let’s look at individual QBs and make some performance predictions.

Buy

J.P. Losman, Bills: We’ve already indicated that Garrard, Young and Hasselbeck should perform much better going forward in 2006. Losman is more of a play for next year. Currently, he’s average in our functional arm strength rankings. But this is a big improvement from his 39 rating last year and what you look for from a developing QB.

Hold

Carson Palmer, Bengals: You expect Palmer, the league-leader in 2005, to be better than 21st in our rankings this year. His accuracy and efficiency on intermediate throws has been the last thing to come around following his ACL surgery.

Matt Leinart, Cardinals: Leinart’s 43 rating on these intermediate throws is second worst among starting QBs. But struggles here are common for inexperienced players. The contrast with Young, however, is striking.

Sell

Tom Brady, Patriots: Evidence of those rumored shoulder woes? His rating here is 69 (100 last year). New England’s 11-to-20-yard attempts are down dramatically, to 14 percent of all throws from 23 percent in ’05.

Steve McNair, Ravens: Decline here is the first indication that a QB is fading. McNair used to dominate on these throws , but fell back to just below average in ’05. He’s 27th in the 2006 rankings (65 QB rating on 11-to-20-yard throws).