Football By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

November 28, 2006
Best Shut-Down Secondaries

One of the fascinating things about every NFL year is how long preseason perceptions stick in our heads, facts and statistics be damned.

For example, do you think Tampa Bay is a tough matchup for opposing QBs and wide receivers? Or how about another 2005 defensive stalwart, the Washington Redskins? On the other hand, Cincinnati and Kansas City must again be easy marks because that’s the way it’s been, seemingly, for forever, right?

Wrong. And, with 11 games of statistics building a veritable brick wall of critical mass, how wrong these views will very likely remain. Let’s pull out our Shutdown Stats courtesy of TwoMinuteWarning.com. In the preseason, we learned that since these stats have been tracked beginning in 2002, no Super Bowl winner has ranked lower than No. 4 in QB rating allowed on passes to No. 1 and No. 2 wide receivers. Two recent champions, the 2003 Patriots and 2002 Bucs, ranked No. 1.

The median QB rating against on all throws to No. 1 and No. 2 receivers is about 86. The range is 61.9 (Ravens) to 107.2 (Bucs).

Of course, there are other ways to measure effectiveness short of QB rating.

The fewest TD passes allowed on passes to top wideouts is the four allowed by the Vikings. The Raiders, Cowboys, Bengals, Chiefs, Chargers and Colts each have allowed five. The Redskins have allowed the most TD passes to top-two receivers (13), followed by the Bucs (12), Packers (12), Titans (12), Seahawks (10), Saints (10) and Rams (10).

The lowest completion percentage allowed on passes to starting wideouts is 50.3 percent by the Panthers (the Steelers were best in this stat last year). The Jaguars and Ravens are the other teams below 52 percent. The Redskins are least efficient (63.7 percent), followed by the Colts (63.2).

Indy blitzes less than every other team and refuses to come out of its Cover 2 scheme, designed to stop perimeter receivers but vulnerable to men in the slot. Indy’s opponents have thrown a league-low 125 passes to top-two receivers and the 6.5 YPA here is second only to the Bears (6.1). As a result, Indy is stingiest in yards allowed to top-two receivers (811), less than half the league-worst total permitted by the Vikings (1,688 on 205 passes).

The Vikings 8.2 YPA here is in the bottom third of the league (worsening their opponents’ QB rating on these passes to 10th overall despite nine picks and the paltry TD total). The trailer on YPA allowed to top receivers is 9.6 by the sack-challenged Falcons.

The NFL’s two 46 defenses, the Ravens and Raiders (run by two sons of the father of this defense, Buddy Ryan), are the No. 1 and No. 2 shutdown defense. They’ve combined for 21 interceptions on these attempts (including a league-best 12 by the Ravens). Expect a lot of copycats next year and for the pressure-based 46 defenses to again alter the evolution of the NFL passing game.

Here are some player recommendations based on these and other key stats.

Buy

Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys: Weeks ago, I said that the Cowboys pass offense would bounce back in a big way. But Romo has been better than anyone could have expected. All of his remaining opponents are in the bottom half of our shutdown rankings, including Atlanta (30th), New Orleans (28th) and Detroit (26th).

Vince Young, QB, Titans: There is always turbulence after takeoff for even the rookie QBs who end up being great. But Young clearly got off the runway last week and already shows evidence of being instinctively clever in deciding when to run and when to pass.

Hold

Michael Vick, QB, Falcons: He’s always a good bet to pile up rushing yards. But he’s again more scatback than QB after showing signs of turning the page about a month ago. You can’t claim to play well at QB when you have 80 yards passing in a game your team loses by three TDs.

Sell

Plaxico Burress, WR, Giants: Eli Manning is floundering and his next two opponents (sixth-ranked Cowboys, third-best Panthers) are very tough generally against top WRs. The Giants lack a No. 2 receiver and Manning is locked in with Plax, who does have easy matchups after this (Eagles, Saints, Redskins).