Football By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

November 21, 2006
Running in the Red Zone

We’ve consistently put the passing game on a pedestal and trashed the time-honored tradition of the terrestrial attack.

Run offense and defense are not insignificant. Generally, though, the most important single thing a team needs to do on any given Sunday (or Thursday or Monday night) is out-pass its opponent as measured by our two key stats: sack-adjusted yards per attempt (YPA) and points per attempt (PPA).

But after quickly slaying opponents with explosive plays in the passing game, teams ideally kill the clock with a crisp, time-consuming running attack.

QBs and WRs also rightly tend to play a subservient role to the road graders and running backs once explosive passing plays position teams near pay dirt,

The leaders in first and goals through Week 11 are the Chargers and Colts, with 31 each. The Cowboys (29), Patriots (27) and Rams (27) are next. Note the Rams are now in big trouble offensively without left tackle Orlando Pace (seven sacks allowed last week, zero points). The trailers are the Raiders (10), Bills (13), Titans (14), Vikings (15) and, shockingly, Giants (15).

The NFL average this year is a TD in 56 percent of first-and-goal situations. Teams, on average, run 57 percent of the time here. The top five teams in first-and-goal TD efficiency (Chargers, Giants, Bengals, Jaguars, Chiefs) all run the ball more than average. The Chargers and Giants, in fact, run the ball over 73 percent of the time here (scoring TDs 81 and 80 percent of the time, respectively). Only the Jets run it at a more predictable rate (79 percent, with only 50 percent TD efficiency).

The Chargers, riding LaDainian Tomlinson (22 touchdowns), have 18 TD rushes in these 31 possessions (42 runs, 15 passes).

The Colts are their mirror opposite, choosing to rely on Peyton Manning and the passing game after first and goal. Of the top 10 most efficient scoring offenses in these situations, only Colts pass the ball significantly more than average. Manning has 31 passes inside the 10, 12 of which have been TDs. But his brother Eli is most efficient here by far (seven passes, six TDs). Eli’s trouble, of course, is getting into first and goal.

Carson Palmer (6-for-12) is the only other QB converting at least half of passes here into TDs (the Texans, 8-for-16, do it as a team). But Cincy is tied with six teams at a disappointing 19th in inside-the-10 possessions. Also noteworthy among QBs in TD efficiency here are San Diego’s David Rivers (7-for-15) and New England’s Tom Brady (12-for-27).

The worst running teams inside the 10 are predictably among the least efficient at scoring TDs. This year’s dregs are the Bills (1 TD in 13 rushing attempts), Falcons (3-for-21), Saints (4-for-27), Rams (4-for-26), Bucs (3-for-16) and Niners (5-for-29).

Now, some player recommendations based on these and other stats.

Buy

Marvin Harrison, WR, Colts: He hasn’t been Manning’s most-thrown-to receiver since Week 3. Peyton will begin balancing the ledger this week.

Reche Caldwell, WR, Patriots: Brady’s school-girl-like crushes on No. 1 receivers have been short and sweet. Caldwell has been very productive three of the last four weeks. But a one catch, 21-yard game always lurks.

Hold

Steven Jackson, RB, Rams: St. Louis will be favored in four of its next five games and should adjust better to the devastating loss of Pace. Touchdowns will likely remain a problem given those inside-the-10 numbers.

Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers: Such a weapon, but only has one more catch inside the 20 than teammate Brandon Manumaleuna. Teams will sell out to stop LT soon, right?

Devery Henderson, WR, Saints: Drew Brees has over 1,600 yards passing the last four weeks and rookie phenom Marques Colston was carted off last week with a high-ankle sprain.

Sell

J.P. Losman, QB, Bills: He’ll remain solid only if teams continue putting their weak corner on fleet Lee Evans (200 receiving yards in the first quarter last week).

Shaun Alexander, RB, Seahawks: Only a handful of high-mileage backs (Corey Dillon, most recently) come all the way back after major injury. Dillon, though, broke no bones. The smart money expects a steep, steady decline.

Brian Westbrook, RB, Eagles: The Eagles are likely crippled again without Donovan McNabb (torn ACL). Westbrook might get more catches, but he’ll likely do much less with them.