Football By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

November 14, 2006
Third Down vs. First Down Decided

We’re constantly told that third down is far more important than first. If true, the best teams in net third-down percentage (their own minus the percentage of opponents) should be better than teams with the best average net gain on first down.

Fortunately, there’s not a lot of overlap. Only three teams are in the top 10 of both net categories: the Colts, Eagles and Saints. And just the Cards and Texans share a spot in the bottom 10 of both rankings.

The top 10 in net third-down efficiency win a sparkling 70 percent of their games; the bottom 10, just 36 percent. Our net first down yardage leaders and trailers don’t measure up, with the top 10 winning just 57 percent of games and the bottom 10 an almost respectable 48 percent. (The top 10 teams overall have a .740 winning percentage, the bottom 10, .270.)

Not a single winning team ranks bottom 10 in the third-down category. Only one losing team is in the top 10, the 4-5 Packers (eighth overall). Here’s solid evidence that the recent Packer revival will continue.

Leaders in net first down yardage include the Lions and Steelers, a combined 5-13. Five winning teams are in the bottom 10: the Bears, Ravens, Seahawks, Cowboys and Jets.

Identifying offensive and defensive leaders may uncover hidden value for the balance of the 2006 season. We’ll focus primarily on third-down percentage, as this clearly is the more important stat.

The top 10 offenses in converting third downs average just under 26 points per game (PPG), the worst 17. That’s almost perfect correlation with leaders and trailers in points scored. There’s one significant outlier on the plus side, the Jets (sixth in third down efficiency, yet 18th in PPG).

Only one team in the bottom 10 of third-down efficiency is among the point leaders, the 25th ranked Bengals (seventh in PPG). The Panthers are worst (27 percent), the Colts best (56 percent compared to the league average of 38 percent.)

Defensive third-down efficiency’s correlation to points scored is also quite good. The most significant outlier here, again, is the Packers. This stat predicts Green Bay will allow about a TD less per game going forward. No team in the bottom 10 of our third-down rankings allows less than 20 points per game, though the Patriots (20th) are not likely to continue to be so stingy in preventing points (14.6 PPG).

The range in average yards gained on first down is 7.7 (Eagles) to 3.7 (Raiders). Correlation to points scored is poor compared to third-down percentage, so we won’t attempt to identify outliers. But we’ll note that the Bengals (second at 6.1) and Redskins (sixth at 5.9) really rely on catching defenses napping.

Defensively, the Bears are shockingly 26th in average yards allowed on first down; teams should strive to attack Chicago before it knows what’s coming. The Cowboys inconsistency on defense can be traced to this stat (last in 6.5 yards allowed on first down versus league average of 5.2).

Now, some player recommendations.

Buy

Thomas Jones, RB, Bears: Bears insiders know he’s simply better than Cedric Benson. Yet outsiders expect Benson to vulture more and more carries.

Hold

Chad Johnson, WR, Bengals: Caught 11 of his 12 targets last week. Cincy averaged 22 yards every time they threw to Johnson, about twice what you hope for on a good day.

Marques Colston, WR, Saints: A seventh rounder from Hofstra is now the all-time NFL leader in receiving yardage through nine games (869 yards).

Sell

Eli Manning, QB, Giants: He’s lost Amani Toomer, is locked into Plaxico Burress (10 targets last week), and ignores Jeremy Shockey (two targets). Manning now must make due without left tackle Luke Petigout (broken leg).

Ladell Betts, RB, Redskins: Washington is breaking in a QB who’s never started (Jason Campbell) and forgotten T.J. Duckett has been promised significant snaps with Clinton Portis (hand) out indefinitely.

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals: The Cards are poor on first and third downs and Fitzgerald (hamstring) won’t be 100 percent until 2007.

Marc Bulger, QB, Rams: All-Pro left tackle Orlando Pace is gone for the year, as is the likelihood of continued big plays in the Rams passing game.