Football By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

September 20, 2006
RB Committees In Vogue Again

One of the major stories to develop in 2006 is the reemergence of the running back committee.

There was evidence of a philosophical shift last year, when, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, 13 teams had two or more backs with 100-plus rushing attempts. That was up from seven teams in 2000, but still off from the record 16 in 1990.

In fact, since the expansion to 16 games in 1978, 1990 is the only non-strike year on record when no running back logged 300 or more rushing attempts. The only seasons where everyone in the top 10 in attempts had 300-plus carries are all relatively recent: 1996, ’98, ’01, ’03 and ’05. Last year made the cut not because teams were running more (46 percent of all plays from scrimmage; it’s 45.8 percent of all plays this year), but because the fewer teams with feature backs all ran well, won and stayed healthy.

Furthermore, this year, 40 backs are currently on pace for 150-plus carries, which would be an increase of five from ’05 and about about eight relative to recent years. So five-to-eight more teams have seemingly decided to go the committee route.

Some speculate that this is all salary-cap driven because franchise running backs cost too much to sign given the injury risk. Others say that committees are the way to go because they keep backs fresh and more productive than they would be otherwise.

Do running back committees work? These 2006 sample sizes are very small, but all of the non-QB in the top five in yards per carry are back-up running backs: Michael Turner (Chargers, 7.6 YPC), Brandon Jacobs (Giants, 6.8), Jerious Norwood (Falcons, 5.8) and DeAngelo Williams (Panthers, 5.7).

Other backups are making a case for being better than the starters ahead of them. Rookie phenoms Joseph Addai (Colts) and Lawrence Maroney (Patriots) are running better thus far than starters Dominic Rhodes and Corey Dillon (though Dillon has a much tighter grip on his job).

Tatum Bell owners may hate that rookie Mike Bell is siphoning off carries, but Tatum is averaging 5.5 per carry (and Mike 4.4). So, Broncos coach Mike Shanahan would argue that his plan is working.

The list of backs who are rested only when they need a breather (or in garbage time) and who generally remain on the field in passing and goal-line situations is short and getting shorter: LaDainian Tomlinson (Chargers), Larry Johnson (Chiefs), Frank Gore (Niners), Willis McGahee (Bills), Steven Jackson (Rams), Edgerrin James (Cardinals), Chester Taylor (Vikings), Ronnie Brown (Dolphins), LaMont Jordan (Raiders, as if they’ll ever get near the goal line) and Kevin Jones (but not if he keeps fumbling). Also possibly qualifying are Warrick Dunn (Falcons, but 180-pound guys can’t be goal-line backs due to the laws of physics) and Reuben Droughns (no in Week 1, yes in Week 2).

Now let’s use this data to make some recommendations on individual players not necessarily for this week, but for the season to come.

Buy

Joseph Addai, RB, Colts: He’s a better runner, receiver and blocker than veteran Dominic Rhodes. Indy’s deferring to age over beauty, but that won’t last (it never does).

DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers: DeShaun Foster has sparkled in some brief postseason moments, but generally averages more yards in his first 10 carries than in all others. So the upside in this committee lies with the rookie Williams.

LenDale White, RB, Titans: The Titans have committees everywhere on offense, but have to find out if those Trojan highlights were for real before they’re on the clock next April.

Hold

Chester Taylor, RB, Vikings: Can he withstand his current workload (league leader in carries)? He’s getting stuffed too much (six times). But we were wrong about new coach Brad Childress importing the passing offense he ran in Philly (more runs than passes for Minny). Taylor had a goal-line attempt right before the OT field goal (which he set up).

Warrick Dunn, RB, Falcons: You’re going to hear a lot about this Texas shotgun Atlanta is using. When the defense tries to contain Vick, he simply hands it off to Dunn, who scampers untouched inside the defensive end. Norwood would be even more explosive running these plays.

Sell

Thomas Jones, RB, Bears: Cedric Benson looms and Jones is being stuffed too much (seven times, third worst, McGahee has nine). The Bears are 28th in yards per carry. But who cares with the passing game white hot behind yards per attempt-leader Rex Grossman and explosive WR Bernard Berrian (catches over 40 yards in four of the last five games)?