Football By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

September 13, 2006
Avoid Overreacting to Week 1

We wait so long for NFL Week 1, it becomes magnified in our mind. But, really, it’s just another week. Still, we finally have some new, real data to manipulate in hopes of better predicting team and player performance.

We can at least begin to see if any teams have undergone a dramatic personality shift in the most important stat in NFL football: yards gained and allowed per pass attempt (YPA). The 10 best teams in net YPA were 111-49 in ’05, the 10 worst, 48-112. Heck, that’s almost as good a corollary as net points (115-45 for the 10 best, 43-117 for the 10 worst).

YPA is a great leading indicator for individual performance, too, as it correlates to TD passes amazingly well, especially after adjusting for pass attempts. So outliers should be viewed as plain old liars.

The bad pass defenses last week mostly were those that skunked it up in ’05. The notable exceptions were Washington (sixth worst in Week 1) and Miami (eighth worst). But the ‘Skins faced Brad Johnson, who is underrated (in ’05, ninth lowest poor throw percentage, above average in the red zone with TDs on 23 percent of runs/passes, fourth highest QB rating on 10-to-20 yard passes). The Dolphins had a strange profile last year, as they gave up the eighth most TD passes against a bunch of junk QBs and followed that up by allowing three to Charlie “Journeyman” Batch. (All stats courtesy of www.RotoAction.com.)

St. Louis is the most interesting bad ’05 pass defense turned good last week. New defensive coordinator Jim Haslett put 68 blitzes in the playbook and had Jake Plummer seeing double. The Patriots seemed to have made strides, too, as expected. New England smothered the Bills passing game in the second half after finishing last year 30th in YPA allowed (but not in net, obviously).

The most interesting bad passing offenses in ’05 that did a 180-degree turn in the opener are the Jets and Bears. We’ll discuss Chad Pennington below. But give the Jets an asterisk because the Titans last year were 28th in yards per attempt and last in points allowed per attempt. Rex Grossman (second best nine yards per attempt last week) was a revelation versus a Packers secondary that was expected to be the butterfly on the manure pile in Green Bay.

The Jets and Cardinals lead the league in red zone possessions (six apiece). The Cardinals are a good bet to maintain the pace as long as Kurt Warner stays healthy because their receivers simply cannot be covered. In net red zone possessions, a very important but often ignored stat, the Rams lead the league at plus-4 and we have to take notice because the Broncos are a legitimate team.

Now let’s focus on individual performers not necessarily for next week, but beyond.

Buy

Chad Pennington, QB, Jets: Arm strength? 6-for-8 on passes 11-to-20 yards, 1-for-1 20-to-30 yards and 2-for-2 on 31-to-40 yard attempts. Of course, we’ll learn much more after Sunday vs. New England.

Antonio Bryant, WR, Niners: You can’t get Frank Gore (three plays inside the five last week after all Niner backs combined for four all of last year). But Bryant had a 52-yard TD called back that would have given him 166 receiving yards.

Hold

Michael Vick, QB, Falcons: Still can’t throw the football consistently (10-for-22). In ’05, he was third worst in percentage of poor throws (18.9 percent behind only Byron Leftwich and Donovan McNabb, in that order).

Willie Parker, RB, Steelers: Don’t get carried away. Najeh Davenport (250 pounds) is now there to siphon off goal-line carries. Workload concerns loom.

Warrick Dunn, RB, Falcons: He’s got 250 carries in him, at best. If the Falcons want to use them all before Halloween, they can because Jerious Norwood (the poor man’s Reggie Bush) is warming up like a Ferrari in the garage.

Chester Taylor, RB, Vikings: Another guy who needs a committee. Remember Cadillac Williams last year, who wore down and hit a wall for about six weeks.

Sell

Jake Plummer, QB, Broncos: The one-night stand now in Denver, as Mike Shanahan has decided Jay Cutler is the marrying kind of QB. Why? Plummer has a worse QB rating late in close games than overall every season since 2003.

Tom Brady, QB, Patriots: Four completions to receivers in Week 1. Deion Branch is gone for good. A great thunder-and-lightening RB committee that looks like it will dominate. A defense facing a lot of poor offensive teams. This is not the profile of a great fantasy QB.