NL Stock Watch

By Scott Pianowski

It’s been four months since we browsed through the National League catalog; here’s a glance at some market moves from the winter and early spring. 

Hitters

BUY

David Wright, 3B, Mets – Keep in mind he was an MVP candidate for three months before a second-half power slump took him out of the running. Wright didn’t have the best of Octobers either, but when you add up 2006 he maintained or slightly improved on just about all of his meaningful numbers, and his power stroke came alive during the All-Star tour of Japan. It was trendy to call Wright “Scott Rolen 2.0” when he made the bigs two years ago, but that comparison doesn’t really work anymore – Wright figures to raise the bar as a five-category stud who’s best years are yet to come. Don’t let the other stars in the Mets offense screen you from the ticklish upside Wright still offers at age 24.

Chris Burke, OF, Astros – Put him near the top of your post-hype sleeper list, as Burke is a former first-round pick primed to have a career year at 27. Now that his shoulder is right and the Astros have cleared the runway for him, Burke can get to the matter at hand – collecting the cheapest 15-homer, 25-steal season you’ll find on the market. He’s also carrying around second-base eligibility, a nifty perk in deeper leagues. Phil Garner will probably hit Burke in the top third of the order, worth noting for mixed-league players.

SELL

Andruw Jones, OF, Braves – He’s the ideal player for highlight-clip nation, a big-city, homer-clouting star who plays the prettiest center field you ever did see. Nothing wrong with that, we suppose, but keep in mind what Jones doesn’t do – namely, steal a lot of bases (just 15 in three years), or hit for a lofty average (nothing higher than .263 the last three years). If you can get him at value for the three categories he brings to the table, that’s fine, but normally there’s a homer-happy owner willing to overpay for Jones’s Q-rating.

Brian Giles, OF, Padres – He’s still a professional hitter with a solid eye and contact rate, but the power has gone south in the latter stages of his career and it’s not going to come back at age 36, especially in Petco Park. Giles’s run-production on the road was solid enough last year (48 runs, 53 RBIs), but the rest of that line was too pedestrian (.264, eight homers, three steals) for us to endorse him as a road-skim play.

HOLD

Josh Willingham, OF, Marlins – He’s no longer got the cushy catcher eligibility and he’s stuck in a tricky hitting environment (the NL East), so it might be easy to look past Willingham as just another outfielder. Not so fast: Willingham quietly hit 15 home runs in the second half of 2006 and even more subtly, he improved his average, contact rate and batting eye at the same time. We loved Willingham as a sneaky catcher play last year, but that doesn’t mean we can’t keep him in the family as a solid No. 3 fantasy outfielder this time around.

Pitchers

BUY

David Bush, SP, Brewers – He had the best strikeout-to-walk ratio in the league but a lot of good it did him; Bush’s 4.41 ERA was almost a run greater than what his peripherals suggest. In layman’s terms, Bush was unlucky, but because all of this happened in Milwaukee, it’s still a well-kept secret. Bush probably won’t cost more than $8-10 in a lot of leagues, but he’s got the potential to earn twice that.

SELL

Josh Johnson, SP, Marlins – A forearm problem ended his 2006 season prematurely and the buzzards are circling his elbow this spring. The dope on Johnson now is that he's out two months at least. If you have to make a freeze decision before the year and the price isn’t the absolute minimum, catch-and-release.

Takashi Saito, RP, Dodgers – He saved the Dodgers bacon last year with a dynamite season, but that could be as good as it gets – everyone in the league has seen his funky delivery now, and keep in mind Saito turned 37 in February. Saito’s calf tweak this spring probably isn’t a big concern, but the presence of flame-throwing Jonathan Broxton behind him on the depth chart could be.

HOLD

Chris Young, SP, Padres – The switch to the National League bumped him up a level as expected, but amazingly Young did his heavy lifting on the road (2.41 ERA, 1.01 WHIP) as opposed to Yellowstone Petco (4.60, 1.27). He was finally getting comfortable at home by the end of the year, however (including a no-hit bid against the Pirates), which suggests that Young might be climbing to the All-Star class in 2007.

Francisco Cordero, RP, Brewers – Coco Puff in Texas (seven blown saves in two months) became Coco Crisp in Milwaukee, as Cordero ripped the closer job from Derrick Turnbow and was brilliant down the stretch (1.69 ERA, 16 saves in 18 chances). Of course Cordero did this in a small-market city and away from a pennant race, so the market price hasn’t completely fixed itself yet. In short, here’s the cheapest top-level closer you’ll find in your NL-only auction.