AL Stock Watch By Scott Pianowski

It’s been four months since we examined the American League shopping cart; here’s a look at some market moves from the winter and early spring. 

Hitters

BUY

Alex Rios, OF, Blue Jays – For half of 2006 he looked like the next big thing in the American League, filling up all five categories (.330-46-15-53-9) and looking mighty fine doing it. Then a staph infection came about and sunk Rios for about a month, and he never regained his timing in the second half. Add it all up and his breakthrough season didn’t carry as much juice as it probably should have, and as a result you can still get Rios for a reasonable price at least one last time. There’s giant room for profit here; you could easily double your money on a modest $12-15 buy.

Josh Barfield, 2B, Indians – His rookie numbers were merely good and not great (.280-72-13-58-21) because he didn’t hit a lick at Petco Park. No need to hold it against him – it’s the worst offensive park in the majors by far, and now it’s in Barfield’s rear view mirror as he heads to Cleveland.  Jacobs Field favors pitchers but it’s nowhere close to the Petco class, so by accident Barfield is looking at a likely jump forward in his second season.

SELL

Frank Thomas, DH, Blue Jays – Tip your cap for his dynamic comeback season, but don’t write a crazy check like the Blue Jays did (two years, $18 million). Thomas turns 39 in May, he’s been an injury risk for six years (there’s already concerns about his legs this spring), and in fantasy leagues he’s a utility lock-up carrying no first-base eligibility. Someone in your league is likely to make the same overzealous play Toronto did, so step aside and let it happen.

A.J. Pierzynski, C, White Sox – He’s dealing with a nagging ankle issue that’s carried over from 2006, Toby Hall is around to steal some at-bats, and AJP is now on the wrong side of 30. And given the cushy environment Pierzynski plays in (hitter’s park, hitter’s league, decent lineup around him), why can’t we coax 70 runs and 70 RBIs out of this guy? You might break even on your bid price, but there’s a lot more downside than upside to be considered.

Jay Gibbons , OF, Orioles – After watching him fall apart physically for three straight seasons (hip, back, and knee problems last year), it’s time to stop scratching the corners of this lottery ticket. The Orioles certainly hedged their bets, collecting a gaggle of OF/1B/DH types in the offseason. If you can build a case for how Gibbons can beat out 3-4 teammates for regular at-bats - and trick his body for six consecutive months - you’re welcome to it.

HOLD

Dan Johnson, 1B, Athletics – His washout 2006 was largely tied to a vision problem, since corrected, setting up Johnson to be a neatly-screened sleeper candidate this time around. Unfortunately the Athletics decided to recycle Shannon Stewart, which shifts Nick Swisher to the infield and Johnson to the bench. Shrewd AL-only players will still take Johnson at a major discount and be content to play the waiting game.

Pitchers

BUY

Felix Hernandez, SP, Mariners – His first full season wasn’t the disaster many reported; King Felix still struck out 176 guys, and he didn’t get a lot of luck when the ball was in play (his ERA should have been 0.41 lower, according to our friends cranking out the essential Bill James Handbook). Hernandez looks more comfortable in his own skin this spring (not to mention a lot, lot lighter), and given the mild discount that’s in the air, we’re buyers, again. You should be too.

SELL

Mark Buehrle, SP, White Sox – Let’s not get romantic about Buehrle’s good old days, because they weren’t all that good. At his best he was a battler and a nibbler, someone who needed a lot of help from his defense (1.26 career ratio, .268 batting average against, just one season with more than 150 strikeouts). What’s left over after a nightmarish 2006? An out-of-shape lefty who’s struggling to deal with decreasing velocity, a jet-stream home park, and a giant six-year workload. Others will guess on a bounce-back on the name recognition alone; the sharp player nominates Buehrle for the minimum, then gets out of the way.

Jered Weaver, SP, Angels – Hotshot rookie pitchers are normally poor investments the second time around even in full health, something Weaver isn’t enjoying right now. Even if the bicep tendinitis winds up being no big deal for Weaver, consider that he’s a fly-ball pitcher up against a league that’s finally had time to get used to his funky motion. We’re not saying he’ll be a stiff, but the casual player will bid expecting last year’s numbers or perhaps better, and that’s a fool’s play. There’s little room for profit here, and a viable downside staring you in the face.

Chien-Ming Wang, SP, Yankees – There’s nothing wrong with him as a pitcher, we suppose, especially if you want to head to The Stadium and watch the chaps take infield for seven innings. But don’t give him too much credit for the 19 wins – even on a playoff club that’s more about luck than anything else – and keep in mind Wang was less-than-ordinary on the road (4.35 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, .304 batting average against). At the end of the day it comes down to this – in 5x5 formats, you can’t be carrying too many starters who don’t even crack 80 strikeouts.

HOLD

Todd Jones, RP, Tigers – It’s easy to pick on Jones – he’s got so-so stuff at best,  with electric Joel Zumaya waiting in the wings. But so long as Jim Leyland lets Jones keep all those cushy ninth-inning saves (especially when Detroit is up two or three runs), Jones will maintain a healthy fantasy value. It boils down to this – we all want to pick up saves on the cheap at the table, and Jones fits the profile. They don’t ask how at the end of the year, they ask how many?