NL Stock Watch By David Ferris

March 23, 2007

We're running out of spring games to watch, we're running out of shopping days before the season, and we're running out of superlatives for that kid in the No. 7 jersey playing shortstop for the Mets. Throw on your cross-trainers and have a run around the market in this edition of the stock watch.

Hitters

BUY

Jose Reyes, SS, Mets – Okay, this is getting ridiculous, this spring Reyes is putting together (.377 average, 15 runs, four homers, 10 steals in 11 chances). At this point the Mets might as well bubble wrap him and ship him to Shea Stadium, because he's ready for the season. And when we put the buy order on Reyes, we're not kidding – he's officially becoming the No. 1 offensive player on our board, moving ahead of Albert Pujols. No stat profile seems out of reach for the 23-year-old superstar.

Johnny Estrada, C, Brewers – It's odd to see this guy moved around the league so much, because there aren't many catchers who can match this guy at the dish. Estrada has been on every pitch this month for his new team (.463 average, 16 RBIs), and he's slated to bat in the middle of a very underrated Brewers lineup.

Garrett Atkins, 3B, Rockies – He basically was Alex Rodriguez-light in 2006 (.329-117-29-120), but the fantasy community hasn't exactly gone bonkers over Atkins – you can still land this guy for a moderate price in most groups this spring. No one can be sure how Coors Field is going to play this time around, but keep in mind Atkins does it on the road, too (.313 average, 14 homers, 60 runs away from home last year).

SELL

Pedro Feliz, 3B, Giants – He's coming off a career-best 98 RBIs, and he's in the middle of a good camp (.333 average, two homers, 11 RBIs). But keep in mind Feliz has hit just .244 and .250 the last two seasons – mediocre batting average is the silent killer to fantasy owners – and given the way Feliz is letting things rip this spring (nine strikeouts, no walks), we know he's not any more selective at the plate. The steady power numbers aren't worth the mediocre return Feliz will give you in the other three categories.

HOLD

Michael Bourn, OF, Phillies – Fantasy owners are always on the hunt for cheap speed, and that's something Bourn should be able to provide. He's a perfect 6-for-6 on the bases this month and will start the year as Philadelphia's fourth outfielder, and if there's something to the Aaron Rowand trade rumors, Bourn could have a regular gig to himself for most of the summer.

Pitchers

BUY

Jake Peavy, SP, Padres – "Pitch to contact" is the mantra of the Padres staff this spring under new manager Bud Black, but when you've got someone as talented as Peavy on the hill, that's probably the wrong advice to give. Fortunately Peavy hasn't fully embraced the new school of thought – he's blown away 19 batters in 14.1 spring innings. Why take the chance on balls put in play when you don't have to? For all of the bumps in Peavy's uneven 2006 season, he still ended the year just one strikeout off the NL lead.

SELL

Jason Hirsh, SP, Rockies – He's already been given a spot in the rotation despite a spotty camp (6.17 ERA, seven walks, five strikeouts), and Clint Hurdle, ever the tinkerer, admits the Rockies could have a volatile rotation this summer. Hirsh was a youngster worth getting excited about in Houston, but his new address whittles his fantasy value down to almost nothing.

Freddy Garcia, SP, Phillies – He's been topping out in the high 80s all spring, and a tight right biceps prematurely ended Garcia's last turn. You don't want to be gambling on this guy into his 30s, especially at the homer-friendly park he's toiling at.

HOLD

Aaron Harang, SP, Reds – The amateurs in the crowd see the 6.14 ERA and 28 hits allowed this spring and get all in a panic. But look at the full picture here – Harang also has 14 strikeouts this month, against zero walks. At the end of the day it comes down to this – whenever a player's ERA conflicts with his walk/strikeout ratio, the right play is to follow the ratio. It's a more reliable meter.