NL Stock Watch By David Ferris

March 16, 2007

Your attention might be partially diverted by brackets and busts at this time of year, but if you don't seed the NL pool of talent accurately, you'll be playing for an NIT bid come August. Let's get the selections right and put you on the right road to glory.

HITTERS

BUY

Willy Taveras, OF, Rockies – He's always had the legs (67 steals the last two years), and he puts the ball in play enough to carry a .284 career average. But now that he's in Colorado Taveras gets two important things – a likely spike to his batting average (he'll hit well over .300 for home games in that giant, average-building park), and a job to himself (Phil Garner couldn't help but jockey Taveras in and out of the lineup back in Houston). Colorado skipper Clint Hurdle is prone to his lineup whims as well, but Taveras looks safe for 600 at-bats or more, which makes him a strong three-category guy for you.

Chris Iannetta, C, Rockies – He's not going to be the next Mike Piazza but the home address helps, and the path to at-bats got clearer when the Rockies finally jettisoned Javy Lopez. Iannetta is an intelligent, patient hitter for someone with such little major-league experience; he'll spray the ball all over the park and contribute nicely as your second catcher. I wouldn't be shocked to see him bat over .300.

SELL

Freddy Sanchez, 3B, Pirates – He's got the batting title on the mantle and three positions of eligibility in most leagues, covering three-quarters of the infield. That's a good start, but Sanchez doesn't offer much power (six homers in 2006) or speed (three steals), and in this game you need to offer one or the other before we pay anything of note. He's also dealing with a sore knee this spring, nothing major but enough for us to quietly leave the room while the others chase last year's .344 average.

HOLD

Rafael Furcal, SS, Dodgers – His sore shoulder is going to scare off a lot of bidders, but there's nothing wrong with the rest of Furcal's body, especially his legs, and his consistent resume from the last five years buys credibility with us. It's also a perk to get your steals from a dynamic offensive player who can do lots of other things; in short, that's why it's nice to own Furcal over guys like Juan Pierre, say (and remarkably, they'll be a similar cost in many leagues).

Chris Burke, OF, Astros – He hasn't hit much this spring and hotshot rookie Hunter Pence is wowing everyone with his camp, but the Astros see the big picture – Burke has cut his teeth in the majors already while Pence hasn't, and they're not going to overreact to two weeks of spring results. All the reasons we liked Burke last month still apply here (approach at the plate; mix of speed and power; position duality; age), and the events of March make him even more cost-friendly at the table.

PITCHERS

BUY

Ian Snell, SP, Pirates – You look at him on the mound and he's far from imposing, checking in at 5-11, 170 pounds or so. But Snell's got a live arm and a nifty 12-to-6 curveball, which carried him to 169 strikeouts in 186 innings last year. The entire Pirates staff is flying under the radar a little bit, but the payoff is highest for Snell, who's upside looks like 200 or more strikeouts. There's a healthy room for profit here.

SELL

Taylor Tankersley, RP, Marlins – He's got a bunch of things blocking his way to saves: a sore shoulder, for one, and the lefty bias against closers. Tankersley also has a cast of thousands battling him for the post in Florida, and if that weren't enough, the Marlins took a look at Jorge Julio and Armando Benitez this week, too.

Mark Prior, SP, Cubs – It's all but sealed that Prior won't be in the rotation to start the year, and suffice it to say it's not like he's battling Christy Mathewson and Walter Johnson for that final spot. When you look in the dictionary under "fantasy tease", a picture of Mark Prior probably stares back at you (in unabridged dictionaries, Kerry Wood gets the nod).

HOLD

Brian Wilson, RP, Giants – His 2006 resume makes you want to run far and fast, but the Giants nonetheless have him installed as the second bullpen option, and that's an important place to be when the guy in front of you is the injury-prone Armando Benitez. The Giants are also looking to move Benitez (the Red Sox and Marlins have interest), so Wilson's trial as the ninth-inning man could come sooner rather than later. We've seen in the past that almost any rag arm can close if used right, which puts Wilson squarely on our radar as a possible source of cheap saves.