Visit Featured Client Sites for Live Content
Fantasy Football: SNY.tv Michigan Live ProJo.com Rocky Mountain News
Fantasy Baseball: SNY.tv Michigan Live,
New York Sports: SNY.TV

Baseball By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

April 11, 2007
AL Park Factors

Let’s continue to look at the ballparks that most significantly impact player performance, focusing this week on the American League.

The Rangers home field increased homers 58 percent for lefties last year, but has played s neutral for lefty power in prior years. Traditionally, it significantly favors righty power, despite suppressing it by about eight percent in 2006. Texas is the most run-friendly AL environment, boosting scoring 12 percent the past three years relative to how the same teams performed against each other in the other AL parks.

The Blue Jays hitters benefit from the most underrated slugging environment in the AL. Homers get boosted 21 and 16 percent for righties and lefties, respectively. And scoring there is up eight percent over the three-year period.

U.S. Cellular Field (White Sox) is manna for all hitters, increasing dingers by 32 and 42 percent for righties and lefties, respectively. Scoring there, however, is up just eight percent during the same three-year period, as the infield plays very true.

Cleveland’s Jacobs Field used to be viewed as a hitting haven when Albert Belle and Manny Ramirez were in their primes there. But it now consistently plays as a pitcher’s park, suppressing scoring seven percent and significantly reducing power from both sides of the plate the past three seasons.

Jacobs, in fact, has played more pitching friendly than the Tigers’ Comerica Park, which reduces runs by five percent. Comerica traditionally limits lefty power more than righty, the mirror opposite of Jacobs. But there are about twice as many righty hitters.

The Green Monster in Boston is far from an inviting home-run target. Dingers there are down 14 percent for righty hitters over the past three seasons, including an alarming 31 percent in 2006. But the Monster boosts doubles by about 33 percent. Fenway always plays tough for lefty power hitters (down 14 percent), which makes David Ortiz’s power exploits all the more remarkable. Ortiz slugged 32 homers in 291 road at bats in 2006.

Some things never change. And Yankee Stadium remains friendly to lefty long-ballers. So Jason Giambi and Johnny Damon can expect their annual 20 percent dividend in the power department when playing at home. Again, as we noted last week, since the Bombers play only half their games in the Bronx, you’d only boost your projection for seasonal homer totals by half that rate.

Now let’s use our park factors to make some player recommendations.

Buy

Felix Hernandez, P, Mariners: It’s not just the one-hit shutout in Fenway or the even more dominating opener, the best one by a pitcher since Bob Gibson in 1967 by the youngest Day 1 starter since Dwight Gooden in 1985 (at which point Hernandez wasn’t even born). Safeco suppressed scoring 11 percent the past three years and the AL West features a bunch of weak-hitting teams. King Felix is about ready to step into the ring with Johan Santana as baseball’s best hurler.

Paul Konerko, 1B, White Sox: He’s averaged about 25 homers per year in the friendly confines of U.S. Cellular. There’s not much more distance to travel to get to 40. Plus, Konerko can hit .300 again given how he manages his strikeouts (104 last year).

Hold

Kei Igawa, P, Yankees: He’s in the right park for a left-handed, fly-ball pitcher despite the terrible performance versus Baltimore last week. If we translate his 2006 in Japan in light of how other Japanese pitchers have performed in the majors, we get 209 innings, 53 walks, 171 Ks and a 3.19 ERA. I caution that the translated ’05 numbers were far worse.

Sell

B.J. Upton, 2B, Devil Rays: Visions of Hanley Ramirez, 2006, are dancing in the head of all his owners. But he regressed at the plate in 2006. Plus, Tropicana Field has the toughest infield playing surface, boosting infield errors 22 percent over the period – not good news for new second baseman who made over 50 errors last year (mostly at short) and is on pace for 80 in 2007.

Miguel Tejada, SS, Orioles: He’s still a very good hitter. But he’s very unlikely to hit 30 homers again. Last year, Camden Yards uncharacteristically boosted righty power by 29 percent and Tejada needed every bit of that, as he managed a pathetic seven homers in 323 road at bats. Camden Yards is a neutral hitting environment most years.