Baseball By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

September 23, 2005
Projecting 2006's Winning Pitchers

For the last column of the season, I wanted to follow up on what we did last week with pitchers and examine 2005's most profitable starting pitchers. Are these guys likely to post similar numbers in 2006?

As we've done all year, we'll use our statistical methodology for removing a pitcher's luck in having balls put in play converted into outs by the defense. Our formula focuses on those things the pitcher most directly controls: strikeouts, walks, homers allowed. Yes, there are some pitchers who consistently allow a lower percentage of hits on balls put in play (knuckleball pitchers, for example, though they're a vanishing breed). But most are all over the map. Stuff guys like Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson have had low percentages one year and the high the next. The same is true of junk-ball types.

The statistic is known as DIPS (defense independent pitching statistics) and was created by Voros McCraken, who parlayed it into a consulting gig with the Boston Red Sox. The great thing about DIPS is that it's wonderfully intuitive. We've always been aware of the luck involved on hits and outs, when bleeders dribble through the infield and line drives are at 'em balls. Now we have a way to objectively quantify this luck.

So let's do some ERA recalculation with our breakthrough pitchers. The first number is the pitcher's actual ERA. The second is the recalculated ERA that assumes an average number of balls in play became hits. Use the recalculated ERA as the basis for your 2006 projections.

First, some NLers: Chris Carpenter (actual 2.42/recalculated 3.03), Roger Clemens (1.89/3.08), Dontrelle Willis (2.44/3.15), John Smoltz (3.02/3.46), Chris Capuano (3.64/4.50), Brett Myers (3.75/4.15), Aaron Harang (3.61/3.65), Esteban Loaiza (3.66/3.53), Jorge Sosa (2.45/4.48), Jae Seo (2.38/3.58) and Zach Duke (1.94/3/16).

The ALers: Gustavo Chacin (3.66/4.31), Tim Wakefield (4.09/4.70), Jon Garland (3.51/4.33), Cliff Lee (3.90/4.01), Carlos Silva (3.44/4.28), Jose Contreras (3.79/4.44), Kenny Rogers (3.49/4.04), Danny Haren (3.86/3.98), Joe Blanton (3.60/4.57), John Lackey (3.55/3.26), Paul Byrd (3.62/3.92).

Buy

Aaron Harang (P, Reds): His earned ERA is not better than his actual, but Harang is sub-.500 and had a poor pre-2005 career. Pay for his 2005 stats because he's 27 and there's nothing fluky about 150-plus Ks and 50 walks. Plus, he's allowed a scant 19 homers despite toiling in a homer haven.

Esteban Loaiza (P, Nationals): He's been good two of the last three years and really benefited from moving from an extreme hitter's park to one equally kind to pitchers. Again, a 3-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio is worth paying for.

John Lackey (P, Angels): Look at Lackey's ridiculously low 13 homers allowed. Couple that stat with his strikeout per inning and you can see why his ERA should be lower. The great thing about Lackey is that everyone has been waiting for the 26-year-old righty to break through and now he has but few realize it.

Sell

Jorge Sosa (P, Braves): The luckiest by far of the pitchers we examined, with an ERA two runs better than it should be. Sosa doesn't miss enough bats and walks almost as many as he strikes out.

Tim Wakefield (P, Red Sox): Yes, knuckleballers are known to consistently allow a below average percentage of hits on balls put in play. But those 30-plus homers really jump out and suggests his knuckler has lost its dancing shoes.

Joe Blanton (P, A's): Blanton has been very lucky this year and isn't anywhere near teammate Haren's class. To get there, Blanton will need to recapture his mid-90s fastball, which was merely high 80s all year.