Baseball By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

February 13, 2007
2006's Unlucky Losers

(EDITOR'S NOTE: This is NOT my print syndication piece, just an exanded and updated version of one for the early birds.)

Luck is a four-letter word in baseball. Actually, it’s a four-letter word everywhere. But you know what I mean. It’s viewed as a loser’s lament.

It is, however, very real. A batter rips a liner to short with the bases loaded for the third out. He was unlucky, the pitcher lucky. The opposite is true when he breaks his bat but sends a flare over the second baseman’s head. The idea that these things even out is superstition. And we have the numbers that prove it.

The most fortunate sons of 2006 are expected to have their respective organizations scratching their heads next spring and summer. But not us. We’ll be expecting significant declines.

In most cases, we’re not even saying that players are lucky relative to league averages in whatever statistical area upon which we’re focusing. Rather, we’re saying these players had gains in key areas that are reasonably viewed as unsustainable in light of their career norms.

Many of these players are admittedly very good even if performance reverts to average for them in the areas cited. So I’m not advising that you don’t own them. I’m merely predicting they are all likely to disappoint relative to 2006 levels of performance.

Chris Young, P, Padres: According to our friends at Baseball Info Solutions and the Hardball Times, Young was the luckiest pitcher in baseball in 2006. His ERA, according to their calculations, would have been 4.61, not 3.46 with average defense and in an average park. But the defense remains above average and positive park factors are at play again in 2007. I like the 8.7/3.6 K/BB ratio. But 1.48 homers per nine innings will kill you. Young is the most flyball-prone pitcher in baseball, which catches up to you even if you play at Petco. Be wary on the road.

Bronson Arroyo, P, Reds: Another guy whose ERA should have been a run higher. But he’s in a terrible home environment for a pitcher. At 29, I’m not buying the idea that he finally put it all together. Maybe if he was a lefty, I’d think differently. But we’re all irrational when it comes to lefties. Just ask major league GMs.

Mark DeRosa, 2B, Cubs: The Cubs have about 14 second baseman on their roster, so it’s not like you can put 550 at bats for DeRosa down in permanent ink. Last year was fun for all his owners who stole him on the waiver wire. But his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was up 80 points from ’05 levels and his average with runners in scoring position (RISP) was up almost 50 points. Perfect timing for him, yes. But don’t be like the Cubs and fool yourself into paying him real money. Remember, you’re smarter than the Cubs. We all are.

Lance Berkman, 1B, Astros: Which is the outlier: .382 with RISP in ‘06, .260 in ’05 and .307 in ’04? If he returns to those past levels, which is likely, knock about 20 ribbies off his projection. The homer rates were up dramatically in ’06, too (to 24 percent of flyballs from 18 percent in ’05). But this has been a steady trend and, at age 30, power hitters are typically still peaking.

Reed Johnson, OF, Blue Jays: His BABIP increased 45 points last year to .367, which explains almost all of his increase in average to a career high .319. Come on, you’ve always wondered why so many guys have these career years from out of left field (where Johnson actually toils for Toronto). Here’s your answer.

Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees: We don’t know enough about him to discount completely the .363 BABIP. That’s high, but he’s a good hitter and good hitters can sustain that kind of rate. But many fantasy speculators want to keep the average and project an appreciable power increase. They can’t have it both ways. He was the 11th most extreme groundball hitter in baseball, so you can’t expect a move upwards into the 20s in homers unless he starts hitting the ball in the air, which will hurt his BABIP and, thus, his overall average. (A far higher percentage of grounders become hits than do flyballs.)

Ryan Howard, 1B, Phillies: You want to get nuts? Let’s get nuts! I’m not going to talk about his strikeouts or even the silly .354 BABIP (remember, this DOES NOT count homers as hits, as homers are balls out of play). Howard’s rate of homers on 40 percent of flyballs is the best since we began tracking the stat in 2004. And it’s eight percentage points higher than the next best season total (Barry Bonds in 2004). Is Howard that much stronger than every other hitter? Maybe. But is Howard that much stronger than Howard was in ’05? At his ’05 rate of homers on flyballs, Howard would have blasted 13 less bombs.

Derek Jeter, SS, Yankees: We’re taking on the icons of the game here. But .381 with runners in scoring position (RISP)? Total fluke. What, you believe in Captain Clutch?  In ’05, he hit .261 in these spots. In ’04, .281. Project Jeter for anything close to 100 ribbies next year at your peril.

Gary Matthews, Jr., OF, Angels: Career highs in BABIP and average with RISP. How many guys get a lot better at age 32 and stay that way? Anyone? I hear crickets chirping, so I’ll move on.

Carlos Beltran, OF, Mets: We noted in the spring of ’06 how unlucky Beltran was last year (homers on nine percent of flyballs, below average for any hitter). But fair is fair and Beltran overachieved in ‘06, with a career high-rate of homers on 23 percent of flyballs. Now, this could be the normal, late 20s power burst. But I expect an average year for him (17 percent) in ’07 and a homer total in the low 30s instead of the low 40s.

Barry Zito, P, Giants: San Francisco paid the kings ransom even though Zito’s ERA should have been pushing five last year. He’s still in a good park. And he’s consistently beats his normalized ERA projection. Last year, though, was off the charts. He gave up homers at a rate lower than usual and lower than the league average. Zito’s also stranded 78.5 percent of baserunners last year. The Giants bullpen looks shaky at best and that figure was about seven points better for Zito than what even he posted in ‘05.

Kenny Rogers, P, Tigers: He allowed hits on 26 percent of balls in play, that’s about 40 batting average points below the norm, or about 30 less hits. No defense is this good (and, indeed, the Tigers performed far worse for other pitchers). Rogers was at .315 on balls in play as recently as 2004. His dominant postseason created more believers. Don’t be one of them unless the price drops dramatically.

J.J. Putz, P, Mariners: Maybe he’s found himself. His K-rate has nearly doubled (to 12.6 per nine innings). But always be suspicious when a guy cuts his seasonal rate of homers on flyballs by more than 50 percent (18.7 percent in ‘04, 17.5 percent in ’05, 7.8 percent last year).