Baseball By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

February 13, 2007
2006's Most-Fortunate Few

(EDITOR'S NOTE: This is NOT my print syndication piece, just an exanded and updated version of one for the early birds.)

Luck is a four-letter word in baseball. Actually, it’s a four-letter word everywhere. But you know what I mean. It’s viewed as a loser’s lament.

But it’s very real. A batter rips a liner to short with the bases loaded for the third out. He was unlucky, the pitcher lucky. The opposite is true when he breaks his bat but sends a flare over the second baseman’s head. The idea that these things even out is nonsense. And we have the numbers that prove it.

As next week’s column is the final one of the season, I wanted to end the year on a positive note. I’m reminded of the old Woody Allen joke, “Would you take two negative columns?”

Personally, I think the more positive column would be to examine unlucky guys, because the reasonable expectation for these Schleprocks is that their luck will be at least average in ’07 and thus their performance will improve. Of course, many of these unlucky guys will be out of jobs or on a short leash next year because managers and organizations can’t admit that luck plays such a major role in results. That would mean that their fate is largely left to chance, a reality they can’t accept. But it’s the unlucky who, if given a chance, are very likely to pleasantly surprise in ’07.

The unfortunate noted here are expected to have organizations scratching their heads next spring and summer. But not us. We’ll be expecting significant declines.

We’re not putting recommendations on players the next two weeks because buying and selling time is over. But these lucky hitters will all very likely disappoint relative to 2006 levels.

Ryan Howard, 1B, Phillies: It’s not related to strikeouts or even necessarily the high average on balls in play (.354). Many strikeout/power consistently maintain this profile. But Howard’s rate of homers on 40 percent of flyballs is the best since we began tracking the stat in 2004. And it’s 20 percent higher than the next best season total (Barry Bonds in 2004). Is Howard that much stronger than every other hitter? At his still prodigious 2005 rate (homers on 31 percent of flyballs), Howard would have about 13 less bombs.

Derek Jeter, SS, Yankees: We’re taking on the icons of the game here. But .397 with runners in scoring position (RISP)? Total fluke. In ’05, he hit .261 in these spots. In ’04, .281. Project Jeter for 100 ribbies next year at your peril.

Gary Matthews, Jr., OF, Rangers: Hitting .350 on balls in play (.283 last year, .322 in ’04). He’s slowing down at age 32, so expect him to return to ’05 levels next season. But the .320 average with RISP is what’s really off the charts for him (.231 last year, .261 in 2004).

Carlos Beltran, OF, Mets: We noted in the spring how unlucky Beltran was last year (homers on nine percent of flyballs, below average for any hitter). But fair is fair and Beltran overachieved this year, with a career high-rate of homers on 23 percent of flyballs. (Hey, maybe luck does even out!). In a normal year for him (17 percent) he’d have about 31 blasts right now, not 40.

Barry Zito, P, A’s: The team that acquires him via free agency is definitely going to be one that doesn’t factor in our hidden numbers. His ERA should be pushing five. He’s given up homers at a rate lower than usual and lower than the league average. Zito’s also stranded 78 percent of baserunners, the sixth best mark in the league and about seven points better than ‘05.

Kenny Rogers, P, Tigers: Another guy we told you to buy during spring training. But, come on. Allowed hits on 26 percent of balls in play, that’s about 40 batting average points below the norm, or about 30 less hits. No defense is this good. And Rogers was at .315 on balls in play as recently as 2004.

J.J. Putz, P, Mariners: Maybe he’s found himself. His K-rate has nearly doubled (to 12.6 per nine innings). But always be suspicious when a guy cuts his seasonal rate of homers on flyballs by more than 50 percent (18.7, 17.5 to 7.8 percent this year).