|
Baseball By The Numbers
By Michael Salfino
September 8, 2006
Explaining the A's and Indians
Fantasy sports are looked down upon by the purist community, but the passion that these people bring to statistical analysis has provided us all with great tools for predicting player performance. Of course, you have to sort through a lot of junk to find them, but that’s why where here.
It necessarily follows that great tools for predicting how players are likely to perform also can be used to predict team performance.
For a couple of years now, we’ve been using one of the original “sabermetric” stats, on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS), to assess the strength of teams. The method is very simple: subtract the OPS allowed by the pitchers/defense from the team’s offensive OPS and you have a net total.
With about three weeks left in the season, the range was plus-92 net OPS points (Yankees) to minus-103 (Royals). There were just 14 teams in plus territory, 16 in the net-OPS red.
Behind the Yankees were the Tigers (plus-67), Mets (plus-59), Blue Jays (plus-55), Indians (plus-49), White Sox (plus-48), Twins (plus-28), Angels (plus-26), Dodgers (plus-26) and Rangers (plus-26).
Bringing up the rear after the Royals were the D-Rays (minus-71), Pirates (minus-69), Orioles (minus-61), Cubs (minus-46), Nationals (minus-29) and Mariners (minus-28).
The A’s are running away with the AL West, but are in minus territory (16th overall). In other words, well behind the Angels and Rangers, both also-rans in the standings.
Why is the stat so wrong in predicting the AL West standings and the performance of the Indians (who have been near the top in this stat every time we’ve looked at it)? What is it missing?
I suspected outliers would be explained by how these teams hit with runners in scoring position relative to how their opponents hit. But the A’s ended Labor Day last in the league in batting average with runners in scoring position (.243). The Indians were third (.291). What about how these teams hit close and late? Oakland is 26th, Cleveland 12th. The Indians also allowed opponents the fifth-highest average close and late (.282). But we get nowhere again with Oakland (in minus territory in net average close and late, too).
Maybe we’re looking at the wrong thing. The A’s ERA close and late is third best in baseball (4.04). But they’ve still given up more runs in these situations than they’ve scored.
So, we’re stumped. Can the entire A’s season really come down to how they performed against one team, the Mariners (15-1)? Yes. Add in the Red Sox and Yankees (13-6) and that’s 21 games over .500. Meanwhile, the Indians couldn’t beat the Tigers (6-13) and lost 8, 7, and 6 games in the standings just in interleague play to the Twins, Tigers and White Sox, respectively (who, combined, were 45-9 vs. the NL while the Indians were 8-10).
Even over the 162-game schedule, ultimate success and failure in baseball is often determined by very isolated, short segments of the lengthy season.
Now, let’s look at some players who most heavily contributed to these team stats.
Buy
Bobby Abreu, OF, Yankees: It’s good to be rich! Abreu is providing nice returns on the investment: .366 with a .459 on-base percentage, which is ho-hum for him.
Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees: Who cares about the lack of walks when you hit .340? He doesn’t strike out much and an .860 OPS for a second baseman is golden.
Justin Morneau, 1B, Twins: Ladies and Gentleman, the true AL MVP (not Derek Jeter, who will win it): .318-33-115 and totally responsible for Minny’s offensive resurgence.
Hold
Jose Reyes, SS, Mets: Even better than his .840 OPS because he’s the only guy in baseball that people will pay to see run the bases. Scores more than half the time he’s on base (minus the homers).
Sell
Paul Byrd, P, Indians: Exhibit A in why the Indians have underachieved. His 200 hits allowed in 156 innings seems really unlucky until you look at the strikeouts (78).
Jason Michaels, OF, Indians: Ugly .700 OPS. Sometimes guys are career fourth outfielders for good reason. |
