Baseball By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

August 11, 2006
Twins Played with Fire

Maybe the young pitchers are being overworked after all.

Scott Kazmir, Justin Verlander and Francisco Liriano have been shut down in the past two weeks for various reasons. The Liriano case is the most troubling, especially if you’re a Twins fan.

After Liriano complained of elbow pain, the Twins performed an MRI and said it was just muscle-related. They said he’d only miss one start and would then be back to normal.

However, Liriano was hit hard in his comeback. Even though he hit 96 MPH on the gun, he was seen crying in the Twins clubhouse after the game, not knowing what was causing the pain, but claiming that his elbow “hurt on every pitch.”

Liriano is now out indefinitely with a strained elbow ligament uncovered in the more “comprehensive” MRI that should have been ordered in the first place. The rest of the season is in doubt for the lightning-throwing lefty, affectionately nicknamed “F-Bomb” in fantasy circles. Don’t believe the team doctor when he says Liriano’s last start didn’t make the problem worse. If that were true, he’s still be pitching.

Since the Twins are competing for the wildcard, why not take a chance on Liriano’s health for the short-term benefit of making the playoffs and possibly winning the World Series?

Liriano is Twins property at a non-arbitration-eligible, virtually minimum salary for another two seasons. He had already established himself as arguably the best pitcher in baseball, which is worth about $20 million per year on the open market. So, the Twins are set to reap the benefit of $40 million worth of Liriano in ’07 and ’08 for under $1 million in total salary. That’s the only way you compete with the Yankees.

If Liriano’s elbow went from a strain (i.e., a partial tear) to a snap last week, it would have been one of the most careless, economically unsound decisions in baseball history.

The irony is that the Twins are ultra-conservative in promoting young talent. Many suspect it’s to delay arbitration eligibility. Had Liriano been in the rotation and Jason Bartlett (.364 average in 50 games since his call-up) inserted at shortstop since opening day, the Twins would likely be five or six better in the standings.

Teams obsessively chart the service time of prospects because it’s calculated so precisely for arbitration purposes. Every year, the top 17 percent of players with more than two but less than three full years of service time also become eligible for arbitration. Generally, this “super two” eligibility requires two years plus 130 days (out of a possible 172) of service time. And, yes, days spent on the major league disabled list count toward this total.

No, on to some recommendations.

Buy

Matt Garza, P, Twins: Has moved up from A-ball to the majors in one season. And we thought that only happened in “Bull Durham.” Throws 97-MPH gas with great control.

Daniel Cabrera, P, Orioles: Settled down in the minors and had a great return Tuesday. There’s a fine line here between greatness and another trip back to Ottawa. Take a chance on the former.

Hold

Andre Ethier, OF, Dodgers: How do you hit better in Los Angeles than in Las Vegas (just one homer in 86 ABs)? His plate discipline is too poor to sustain this production in ’07. But ride him now.

Justin Verlander, P, Tigers: Wisely shut down by Detroit before the “tired” arm became a “sore” arm. He’s back in the rotation this week.

Eric Bedard, P, Orioles: The Orioles have also shut down Bedard (tired arm) for a start, as the Liriano situation sent off alarm bells throughout baseball. His first stat back was less than impressive.

Sell

Julio Lugo, UT, Dodgers: No place to play everyday. Why did the Dodgers bother trading for him? He’s better than Furcal, Kent and Lofton, but loyalty means more in L.A. than winning.

Cliff Floyd, OF, Mets: On the DL with a sore Achilles. The Mets will play him sparingly when he gets back in hopes of having his bat for October.