Baseball By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

August 4 , 2006
Yanks Deal, Spend Way to Top

The trade deadline has come and gone and the baseball landscape has changed in one significant respect. The New York Yankees may not be baseball’s best team now, but they sure will be in October.

This really shouldn’t surprise anyone. The acquisition of OF Bobby Abreu for middling prospects gives the Bombers 11 players making more than $10 million in ‘06. Their total payroll of approximately $220 million is $100 million more than the next highest team, the Boston Red Sox.

Pinstripe haters console themselves by trashing the Yankees’ staff.  But New York has allowed the majors’ fourth lowest on base plus slugging percentage (OPS). Now Abreu, who has hit only five homers since the 2005 All Star Break but who has a .420 on base percentage, sustains rallies in a lineup that will add Hideki Matsui and Gary Sheffield in September.

The Yankees can buy out Abreu’s 2008, $16 million option for $2 million. Janitors vacuum out $2 million every night between the cushions of the couches in the Yankees clubhouse. While the Yanks are still on the hook for about $20 million through 2007 for an aging hitter whose power has mysteriously disappeared and who is not a committed defender, there clearly are no limits to their payroll.

Alert readers noted last week that Pirates all-star OF Jason Bay was traded by the Mets in a 2002 deadline deal for reliever Steve Reed. Yes, that belongs in the pantheon of bad deadline deals.

We learned this week that teams are more committed than ever to keeping major-league ready prospects, as Alfonso Soriano remained in Washington. This is more bad news for small market teams. Prospect offers are so low now that teams are calculating they’re better off with the draft-pick compensation given to teams who lose free agents. GMs say they’ll trade prized prospects only for players at least two years away from free agency.

Translating minor league statistics is very controversial. But this week we saw some great, comprehensive work courtesy of blogger Chone Smith (lanaheimangelfan.blogspot.com). Highlights include Howie Kendrick’s 1.039 OPS at AAA Salt Lake translating to .797 in the majors. Smith says the two best minor league performances of 2006 by top prospects are by Milledge (OPS translated to .826 in the majors) and Reds first base prospect Joey Votto (.822 translated OPS). Remember, there is a huge difference between the hitter friendly Pacific Coast League and International League.

Now, on to some player recommendations.

Buy

Francisco Liriano (P, Twins): His owners are in a total panic now that he’s missed a start with a sore elbow. But the MRI revealed no major damage. The strikeout master’s arm is so powerful that scientists fear a ligament tear would release enough energy to destroy the earth.

B.J. Upton (3B, Devil Rays): He can’t play short because Tampa seeks to limit lawsuits from spectators behind the first-base dugout. Upton can swing it a little and run a lot, though his stolen base efficiency will likely be poor.

Ryan Shealy (1B, Royals): The power hasn’t materialized, but KC is giving him a full shot after picking him up from Colorado. Turns 27 this month, so the time is now for this stat-head darling.

Wilson Betemit (3B, Dodgers): Finally gets his shot after being stuck behind Chipper Jones in Atlanta. Betemit qualifies at short and should club 10 homers the rest of the year in full-time duty.

Francisco Cordero (P, Brewers): He had a great year after April, but that cost him the closer job in Texas. He’s a good bet to keep the closer job in Milwaukee.

Sell

Mark Buehrle (P, White Sox): Think of this as the Peter Principle operating in fantasy. Buehrle is a guy you need to get for a middle-market price. He can’t be your ace. The strikeout rate has now reached unconscionable lows (about four per nine innings).