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That’s a verb the New York Mets introduced into the baseball vocabulary in 2004 when they traded flame-throwing, then 20-year-old lefty Scott Kazmir to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for innings-eating starter Victor Zambrano. Kazmir quickly realized his all-star projections and Zambrano might never pitch again after struggling with elbow woes since the deal. Worse, the Mets made this deal while under .500. The toughest task in trading tomorrow for today is objectively assessing your team’s chances.

While the Kazmir deal is the latest deadline fiasco, there are other famous ones that would embarrass even the worst fantasy GMs.

For example, in 1964, the Cubs traded future Hall of Famer Lou Brock for Ernie Broglio (7-19 in two-plus seasons with Chicago). Frank Costanza famously ripped George Steinbrenner in a “Seinfeld” episode for trading Jay Buhner in 1988 for Ken Phelps (.224 for the fifth-place Yanks). The Mariners gave back to the Red Sox in 1997 when they traded Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe for “Horrible” Heathcliff Slocomb (5-ish ERA for Seattle). The Blue Jays wouldn’t be trying to deal for a shortstop so desperately they hadn’t dumped Michael Young for Esteban Loaiza in 2000.

Translating minor-league statistics is more art than science. Teams use mathematical formulas to convert stats for every minor-league level to a major-league equivalent. But there are bald assumptions built into these formulas. And while the performance of a minor-league player can easily be compared to league averages, these averages do not account for age. It’s now universally accepted that statistics of younger players at higher levels need to be weighted more heavily, but precisely how much remains a mystery.

Of course, sometimes these deals go the other way. Mark McGwire for T.J. Matthews, Eric Ludwick and Blake Stein turned out great for St. Louis in 1997. The Braves received 111 homers, 391 RBI and four division titles from Fred McGriff when they acquired him for a trio of failed prospects in 1993. And the Yanks return to dominance was arguably triggered by the acquisition of David Cone for flotsam from Toronto in 1995.

Let’s look at some veterans who have been the subject of trade rumors and assess their likely impact for the balance of 2006.

Buy

Alfonzo Soriano (OF, Nationals): When we said in March that park effects in Washington were being grossly overstated, we never expected the 50-homer pace. Many downgrade him because of his inability to draw walks, but they forget that hitters are first supposed to hit when the count is in their favor.

Julio Lugo (SS, Devil Rays): Worth a king’s ransom even if his homer surge seems ridiculously fluky. He’s gone from homers on 4 percent of flyballs in ’04 and ’05 to 17 percent this year. Rumored suitors Toronto and Boston won’t let him run much.

Carlos Lee (OF, Rangers): Manny Ramirez Jr. now goes into one of the majors friendliest homer parks. Lee (.347 with runners in scoring position) is a 45-homer, 140 RBI hitter in Texas. Plus, he’s on pace to steal 20 bases.

Sell

Bobby Abreu (OF, Phillies): He has an no-trade clause and will force any suitor to pick up his ’08 option ($14 million). You can’t do this and trade a top prospect even when properly valuing that sparkling .430 on-base percentage.

(Editor's note: This was too cleverly stated, in retrospect. The option is $16 million and the buyout is $2 million, which is how we came up with the $14 million charge.)

Barry Zito (P, A’s): The plan was to have Loazia and Rich Harden (elbow) pitching well now so that Zito could be dealt. But Oakland can’t conquer the AL with that putrid offense and Zito is overrated (his ERA would be about 4.50 with average luck/defense).

Kip Wells (P, Pirates): How weak is the pitching market? The Mets are reportedly hot on Wells because his fastball provides a change-of-pace on their staff. Never mind that Wells is always hurt and isn’t getting anyone out (8.28 ERA).

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