Baseball By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

July 21, 2006
Workload and Rookie Starters

Though I’ve trumpeted the Tigers early and often here this season, the downgrade of rookie phenom Justin Verlander a few weeks ago has resulted in some complaints.

The reasoning was seemingly sound and the view shared by other analysts. Verlander had never pitched more than 130 innings at any level. So how could we expect him to withstand the rigors of pitching 200-plus big-league innings as a rookie?

But Verlander seems to be getting better, not worse. Did we telescope too much risk with him? With all the young pitchers taking the baseball world by storm, now is a great time to look more rigorously at how young pitchers tend to be affected by a major boost in workload.

Kerry Wood and Mark Prior are the poster boys for the Fear of Sudden Increased Workload. Both performed spectacularly as rookies and then immediately began deep, dark, downward injury spirals. The advocates of easing into the 200-inning mark also point to Roger Clemens, who logged 180 innings between Pawtucket and Boston in 1984 before getting hurt in 1985. Dontrelle Willis is cited because he pitched so poorly the second-half of his rookie year in 2003 and was then bombed in the postseason.

With these grim facts in mind, the Twins brought Johan Santana along very slowly after acquiring him as a Rule V pick and forcing him to learn how to pitch at the big-league level. Francisco Liriano’s workload has been similarly managed with similar, spectacular results.

But is this proof that pitchers are generally adversely effected after dramatically increase innings as rookies?

Remember, Clemens came back in 1986 and tossed 250-plus innings on his way to the Cy Young Award. Nolan Ryan showed no problem blasting through the 200-inning barrier for the first time in 1972 (284 innings/329 Ks). Dwight Gooden had one of the all-time great finishing kicks in baseball history throwing over 200 innings for the first time at age 19 in 1984. Pedro Martinez suffered no decline when first exposed to the 200-inning barrier with the Expos. Barry Zito blew through 200 professional innings his rookie year and then following that up with two great seasons, including a Cy Young Award.

Even more recently, Scott Kazmir defied the critics when he excelled despite having his innings doubled as a rookie last year.

So, what’s the verdict? As is the case with most legitimate debates, there is enough evidence on both sides to fuel the argument indefinitely. The workload-averse group inside and outside big-league clubhouses have their hearts in the right place. They’re seeking to avoid injury. But it’s most likely that a workload obsession provides the mere illusion of control over such disastrous outcomes.

Let’s examine how the most prized pitching prospects heading into 2006 are currently faring. We’re remove the Mets Mike Pelfrey and Mariners Felix Hernandez from consideration, as we recommended both very recently.

Buy

Cole Hamels (Phillies): Averaging a strikeout per inning with half as many walks. His current ERA (5.36) belies his ability.

Jared Weaver (Angels): With his biceps problem on worried owners’ mind, this is the last chance to buy. Weaver is the rare young pitcher with a very high ceiling AND floor.

Hold

Anthony Reyes (Cardinals): Disappointing only in the context of his remarkable one-hit, 2006 debut versus the White Sox.

Chad Billingsley (Dodgers): He hasn’t allowed a run his last two starts. Billingsley still walks too many, but his minor-league record suggests the Ks will come.

Sell

Jeremy Sowers (Indians): Forget the spectacular minor-league ERA and focus on his paltry K-total there (five per nine innings). Strikeout rates typically decline by about 20 percent from AAA.

Phillip Hughes (Yankees): Dominating AA as a 20-year old, but that makes him unlikely to be traded. You can’t reasonably expect a Yankee debut before August ‘07.