Baseball By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

July 14, 2006
Forecasting the Second Half

As baseball catches its collective breath during the All-Star break, we forward and try to spot the teams and players due for significant surges or dramatic declines.

There are two team stats we use that correlate very well to winning. They confirm the validity of current won-loss records, whether good or bad. Net on-base plus slugging percentage (Net OPS) merely takes the sum of the bases gained on offense and subtracts it from those allowed by the pitching/defense. Net runners in scoring position (Net RISP) tells us how many more scoring opportunities teams have had than their opponents. Whether converting these opportunities into runs is more luck than skill is for you to decide.

Typically, the range in Net OPS is plus or minus .100 points. The Tigers entered the break first at plus .93, the Royals last at minus .116. The top four teams and seven of the top eight are in the American League. The lone NL team is the Mets (fifth overall). Net OPS says the Yankees should have a better record right now than Boston, who should be third in the East behind Toronto (fourth overall at plus .76).

The Indians continue to badly underachieve relative to their Net OPS ranking (eighth). Cleveland is 19th in actual winning percentage. They’ve been vexed not so much by their tough division (.500 vs. the AL Central), but by the NL, against whom they’re under .500 while rivals Detroit, Cleveland and Minnesota finished the interleague slate a combined 45-9.

Some Net OPS predictions: the Cardinals are mediocre at best but will hold on because everyone in the NL Central is worse. The A’s have no business being tied for the AL West lead, as they’re 24th in this stat. The Angels are surging in these rankings and should run away with the AL West. The Dodgers and Padres will go down to the wire in the NL West. The big story of the summer is going to be the Red Sox and Yankees fighting for one playoff spot, but don’t discount Toronto. The Yankees prevail only if Mike Mussina continues to turn back the clock.

Net RISP further illuminates the second-half landscape. But the Blue Jays lose much of their shine here, as they are more than 70 Net RISP behind the league-leading Yankees and Red Sox (in that order). This stat also like the Mets much less, as they finished the first half 10th overall and fourth in the NL behind the Dodgers, Padres and Cardinals. And the worst team in baseball here isn’t the Royals, but the Devil Rays at a ridiculous minus-170 in Net RISP (only one other team, Pittsburgh, is more than minus-100).

Now, let’s predict some individual performance.

Buy

Ervin Santana (P, Angels): His one bad start since May 24 lasted eight innings (just seven baserunners and six Ks). At age 23 with more than 40 big-league starts under his belt, Santana’s has a lot of room for growth.

Mike MacDougal (P, Royals): He’ll return to the closer role and that will be good for 15 saves even on a terrible Kansas City team.

Mike Pelfrey (P, Mets): The Mets have to either develop the fire-balling Pelfrey in a hurry or pay a king’s ransom for someone who can start Game 3 of their upcoming post-season series.

Adrian Gonzalez (1B, Padres): He’s raised his average 34 points since May 28 and is exhibiting decent power even in cavernous Petco. 

Hold

Felipe Lopez (SS, Nationals): Moving from Cincinnati hurts his power, but he’s the ideal leadoff hitter for the Nationals. Getting him and Austin Kearns for two mediocre relievers and a SS who can’t hit is one of the best trades in recent history.

Sell

Aubrey Huff (3B, Astros): Huff can’t play any position adequately and experienced a power decline three straight years. Minute Maid park is a very tough park for lefty power hitters.