Baseball By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

June 23, 2006
O-Zone, Winning and RBI

Major League Baseball stepped squarely into the statistical revolution by debuting a new measurement this year called O-Zone Factor.

No, it doesn’t have anything to do with chlorofluorocarbons. It’s baseball’s attempt to measure which teams are most efficient at scoring runs with runners in scoring position (RISP). Teams are ranked according to the difference between the percentage of RISP they plate versus what they allow.

The assumption here is that the differences in efficiency will outweigh differences in opportunity. Let’s see if that’s so.

The best teams in baseball according to this O-Zone Factor (net percentage of runs scored with RISP in parentheses) are the White Sox (.064), Tigers (.059), Giants (.047),  Mets (.043), Cardinals (.030), Dodgers (.029), Twins (.028), Mariners (.025), Pirates (.023), and Padres (.021). The combined record heading into this weekend was 391-332 (.541 winning percentage).

But let’s focus only on the difference between total RISP for the offense and those allowed by a team’s pitching/defense. Our new leader board (net numbers of RISP in parentheses): Red Sox (104), Yankees (95), White Sox (82), Mets (68), Dodgers (68), Tigers (66), Padres (64), Cardinals (58), Blue Jays (41) and Twins (32). No losing teams here and a combined 415-300 record (.580 winning percentage). Better to have more RISP and let the balls fall where they may.

Looking at the range of opportunities really opens your eyes into the weakness of the RBI statistic. The Yankees have had 595 RISP, the Devil Rays just 444. So the average Tampa Bay hitter has a 34 percent less chances to drive in runs. That’s too great a differential for efficiency to overcome. The difference between the most and least efficient team in scoring RISP is just 22 percent (White Sox are best at .474, the Cubs worst at .389).

RISP team totals gives us a new appreciation for certain RBI leaders. Ryan Howard (Phillies), Lance Berkman (Astros) and Andrew Jones (Braves), are top 10 in RBI despite being on teams that are not even in the top half in total RISP. Not surprisingly, these hitters average over 20 homers. Only one player on a team in the bottom quarter of total RISP is among the top 20 in RBI, Pittsburgh’s Jason Bay.

Let’s look at more individual performance in the context of the team RISP and make some RBI recommendations for the balance of 2006.

Buy

Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees: He’s moved up in the lineup of late. Cano’s average with RISP is currently lagging 100 points behind his overall average. Which is more reliable? Always go with the larger number, in this case, total at bats.

Manny Ramirez, OF, Red Sox: Ramirez price is at a five-year low relative to value. His owners had visions of 140 RBI. Not only has Manny not gotten his share of opportunities (just 59), but he’s hitting only .254 with RISP. He’ll be top five in RBI going forward.

J.D. Drew, OF, Dodgers: Always an injury risk, but he’s too good a hitter to continue flashing such little power (one homer) and average (.263) in all those RISP at bats (76).

Mark Teixeira, 1B, Rangers: Hitting .325 with RISP. The problem is the power outage, just one homer in 83 at bats with RISP and six overall. In ’04 and ’05, 19 percent of his flyballs were homers. This year, a fluky six percent.

Sell

Chris Shelton, 1B, Tigers: April’s hero has only 34 RBI. Detroit is 24th in RISP and Shelton can’t be expected to perform adequately in these situations given his high strikeout rate (18 in 55 at bats).

Garret Anderson, OF, Angels: His .317 average with RISP is unsustainable in light of his overall .270 average. Combine his lack of power (.427 slugging average) with the Angels 26th ranking in RISP and you must project a rough second half.