Baseball By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

June 9, 2006
Rebound Coming for Indians, Bonds

Season milestones are arbitrary points in time. But they serve the purpose of allowing us to step back from the canvas of isolated at bats and games and view the emerging landscape.

On-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) came into vogue largely because of fantasy baseball. In fact, more enlightened leagues now use that as a scoring category. In prior columns, I’ve introduced the team “net OPS” stat, which merely takes the sum of the bases gained on offense and subtracts it from those allowed by the pitching/defense. Through two months, the leader in the category was the Yankees at plus .113 OPS points. The trailer, KC at minus .160.

Net OPS allows us to isolate the teams that have been lucky and unlucky in converting this advantage into wins. This way, in theory at least, we can identify which squads are most likely to reverse course for the remainder of the season.

The stat can also be used to verify whether pleasantly surprising teams are likely to sustain their success. For the Blue Jays (second best net OPS), Tigers (third best) and Rangers (whose net OPS suggests even more wins) the answer is “yes.” But expect a fade from the Reds, who have the net OPS of a .500 team.

Our two most unlucky teams are the Indians and Brewers, who both should be in striking distance in their respective divisions but ended the second month 8.5 and 7.5 games back, respectively. That’s a lot of ground to make up, but expect a strong correction in won-loss record going forward, especially from Cleveland.

We can do the same thing with players as we do with teams. But our equation with players is a very different. Because of advanced analysis of where each player hits every ball in play, we can actually calculate which have the greatest variance between expected OPS and projected OPS. Note that because team sample sizes are so much larger than individual sample sizes, the team variances between expected and projected OPS tends not to be statistically significant.

With help from our friends at HardballTimes.com and Baseball Info Solutions, let’s look at the luckiest and unluckiest hitters thus far in 2006 and make some recommendations.

Buy

Barry Bonds (OF, Giants): Bonds (rib strain) should have finished the second month .357-.563-.625 right now (he’s lost eight hits on ground outs to right field due to the shift). He’s 30th overall in actual OPS.

Adam Dunn (OF, Reds): His OPS should have been 1.116 after two months, not .959. Maybe you can get him because of his bad average, but remember he should be hitting .313 (.238 actual at the two-month mark).

Frank Thomas (DH, A’s): Another guy who’s OPS is depressed because of a bad average he doesn’t deserve. He’s a solid mixed league option when healthy; but that’s the rub.

Aramis Ramirez (3B, Cubs): The power is still there. And he should be hitting about .300 instead of .240. If you look at his 1:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, you see why.

Hold

Ramon Hernandez (C, Orioles): His impressive OPS (third among all catchers) is right where he should be. Remember, he slugged pretty well when healthy in ’04 and ’05 despite playing in cavernous Petco.

Jacque Jones (OF, Cubs): He’s settled in nicely after the slow start, but is at a sustainable level in friendly Wrigley Field. Forget about those projected 10 steals, however.

Sell

Alexis Rios (OF, Blue Jays): Non-keeper league players must cash in now, as projected OPS says a major correction is in store (to around the .800 level, prospectively).

Gary Matthews, Jr. (OF, Rangers): Not a mixed league option going forward despite the unbelievable luck (.780 expected vs. .927 actual).

Prince Fielder (1B, Brewers): When you strike out almost once per game, your average should be .260 at best, not threatening .300.