Baseball By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

June 2, 2006
The Good, Bad and Ugly

We’re thinking in threes this week. The baseball season is about a third complete. And three stories have been dominating the baseball news: Albert Pujols’ quest for immortality (at least until the next guy breaks the homer record in another year or two), Alex Rodriguez’ supposed pattern of failing in the clutch and the Royals ineptitude. Let’s call it, The Good, the Bad and the Ugly.

Prince Albert is on pace for 80 homers, which we’ve been told is impossible without the use of steroids. Well, to be fair, we’ve been told that 40-something homer guys don’t turn into 70- or (gasp) 80-something homer guys without steroids. Pujols averaged 40 homers during his career and never smacked more than 46. Pujols’ success this year is more evidence that great hitters continually express their genius in ways that defy expectations. That’s what makes them artists and baseball so much fun.

Pujols is hitting homers on three times as many flyballs as the average hitter and 50 percent more than he has in prior seasons. (Note that Ryan Howard’s 38-percent homer rate on flyballs is even higher than Pujols’ 31 percent.)

A-Rod has been  slammed on the New York talk shows and tabloids all week for going 3-for-23 late in close games to start the season. He’s been compared unfavorably to Derek Jeter, who started the year 10-for-20 in those situations. Yankees fans and writers are convinced that this was the case in ’05, too. Plus, A-Rod has proven he can’t hit in the postseason, unlike the Yankee captain.

Unsurprisingly, A-Rod proves to be a better hitter than Jeter when you expand the sample sizes beyond this year. Late in close games in 2005, A-Rod had a .938 on base plus slugging (OPS). Jeter had a .753 OPS in those same situations in ’05. Career in the postseason, A-Rod: .927 (eight series), Jeter .839 (23 series). But be wary of small postseason sample sizes. Joe DiMaggio’s career postseason OPS was .760, Jackie Robinson’s .678 and Willie Mays’ .660.

There’s no defending the Royals, who stink. But the worst team ever? That dubious honor still will likely go to the 1916 Philadelphia A’s (who allowed 31 percent more runs than the next most generous team and also plated a below average offense). Presently, the Royals are allowing about 10 percent more runs than the next worse team (Baltimore), but do have the worst offense in baseball, too (barely below the Cubbies).

Now, some player recommendations.

Buy

Felix Hernandez (P, Mariners): The Mariners are forcing him to establish his fastball and hitters are smoking him the first three innings to the tune of a .936 OPS. At some point, Seattle will figure this out and just let him pitch.

Hold

Richie Sexson (1B, Mariners): If not for the foot injury, he’d be a buy. Sexson is a Frankenstein who hit homers on 33 and 25 percent of flyballs the prior two seasons. This year’s 13 percent is likely a fluke.

Jake Peavy (P, Padres): We’re not too worried about the shoulder because he struck out 16 after complaining of some common tenderness. Peavy’s ERA should be about a run lower.

Sell

Nick Johnson (1B, Nationals): More than a quarter of Johnson’s flyballs this year are homers, twice his career rate. Tampa Bay’s Jonny Gomes similarly spiked earlier in 2006 before regressing. Only great hitters like Pujols can alter their game seemingly at will.

Jose Contreras (P, White Sox): Getting lucky on balls in play has artificially lowered Contreras’ ERA, which should be 3.80, not 2.53.

Justin Verlander (P, Tigers): Love him long-term. But Verlander’s never thrown more than 130 innings and is already over 70. His 3.13 ERA should be about 40 percent higher because that 98-MPH heater doesn’t miss enough bats.