Baseball By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

May 12, 2006
Can Average Joes Pick Winners?

There’s ample research that shows fantasy baseball statistics correlate to real-life wins and losses. In other words, the teams that perform best in batting average, homers, runs, ribbies, steals, wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA and baserunners per inning should win the most games.

Millions of fantasy baseball owners spent untold hours in February and March trying their darnedest to predict these stats. With the help of an extensive database of thousands of online, preseason auctions courtesy of our friends at fantasyauctioneer.com, let’s see how well the real teams awarded the most fantasy dollars are doing in the actual standings.

In the NL East, fantasy owners assessed the Mets roster as being worth $151.7 million when you translate fantasy dollars into major-league equivalent salaries. The Phillies ($143 million) and Braves ($133.3 million) were close behind. Current standings: Mets, Phillies, Braves. Nice job, Average Joes.

In the NL Central, fantasy owners most heavily invested in the Cubs ($167 million), with the Cards ($146.2 million), Astros ($133.3 million) and Brewers ($131.5 million) more tightly bunched. The Cardinals are currently wrestling with the Reds for the top spot, followed by the Astros, Brewers and Cubs. Fantasy owners projected the Reds to be the league’s third worst team, investing only $93.6 million in them.

The Dodgers ($134.5 million) and Giants ($119.3 million) were clearly more valued than the rest of the pack in the NL West. But those two teams are tied for last place, a few games behind the Rockies ($97.8 million).

The AL East has the two teams that fantasy owners love most. The Yankees led all of baseball with an average fantasy investment of $195.7 million, followed closely by the he Red Sox at $192.6 million. Boston currently holds slim divisional lead in a race as close thus far as those totals indicate.

The defending champion White Sox came in at an impressive $169.4 million, the fourth best mark in baseball. And they are currently comfortably leading the AL Central. The Tigers looked great before slumping last week even though fantasy owners assessed the worth of their players at just $99.7 million. The Royals? A league-low $72.2 million.

In the AL West, the Angels were picked as the best of a tightly packed bunch, with an average fantasy investment of $153.5 million. The A’s were second ($141.9 million), followed by the Mariners ($129 million) and Rangers ($125.4 million). The division is as close as projected, but the Angels are well under .500.

Now some player recommendations based on current stats courtesy of HardballTimes.com.

Buy

Jason Bay (OF, Pirates): The lack of power, especially the lack of doubles, is alarming. But he’s an even more disciplined hitter than last year. The bad average is attributable to hitting about 70 points less on balls in play.

David Bush (P, Brewers): With nine walks and 39 Ks in his first 48 innings, his ERA should be about 3.50. Activate Bush in all fantasy formats.

Cory Lidle (P, Phillies): He’s striking out six times as many as he walks, but does not have the ERA to show for it because of bad luck in having his defense turn balls in play into outs (about 50 points below average).

Hold

Chris Capuano (P, Brewers): The gains he’s made in control, walking about half as many as in ’05, are likely real. And you want any lefty who can strike out nearly one batter per inning.

Sell

Jhonny Peralta (SS, Indians): He’s striking out more than once per game, which makes it very difficult to hit over .260. Last year’s .293 is looking like a fluke.

Alex Rios (OF, Blue Jays): He’s mashing the ball after being the league’s tallest punch-and-judy hitter the past two seasons. But he’s striking out about four times as much as he’s walking and .400 average on balls in play won’t last.