Baseball By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

April 28, 2006
Lucky and Unlucky Hitters

With the first month of the season coming to a close, it’s high time to look at players whose performance levels are out of line with their established norms.

Luck comes into play most significantly in baseball on batting average on balls in play (BIP). It plays a bigger role in performance variation with pitchers than it does with hitters. Simply put, it’s best to generally assume that teams and individual hitters should allow the league average of hits on balls in play (about 30 percent). Individual hitters generally gravitate more closely to their career BIP averages.

Remember that home runs are, by definition, not in play. So those hits are removed from the equation when computing the following BIP averages. Strikeout are also removed from the equation.

We sometimes focus on line drives when examining these BIP rates because liners become hits about 74 percent of the time. Generally, line drive rates above 25 percent are not sustainable. (Last year, Placido Polanco led the majors with a rate of 24 percent.)

The stats below are provided by Baseball Info Solutions through our friends at the Hardball Times (www.hardballtimes.com).

Heading into this weekend, the major’s unluckiest BIP hitters are A’s DH Frank Thomas (.158 BIP average compared to .285 BIP average the last year he had significant at bats), Cubs 3B Aramis Ramirez (.170 compared to .293 last year), Angels 1B Casey Kotchman (.173/.268), Cardinals C Yadier Molina (.194/.254), Twins DH Rondell White (.197/.334), Mets OF Cliff Floyd (.204/.280), Braves OF Jeff Francoeur (.206/.341) and Brewers OF Brady Clark (.217/.319). Noteworthy here is that Thomas is hitting line drives just under 10 percent of the time.

The players with the highest BIP averages are Brewers 1B Prince Fielder (.458 as a rookie), Orioles SS Miguel Tejada (.442/.318 in ‘05), Rangers SS Michael Young (.436/.355), Rockies OF Brad Hawpe (.436/.314), Yankees SS Derek Jeter (.431/.353), Nationals 1B Nick Johnson (.421/.331), Tigers 1B Chris Shelton (.404/.345), Indians OF Casey Blake (.400/.268), Twins 2B Luis Castillo (.400/.318) and Red Sox 1B Kevin Youkilis (.393/.356). Over the line-drive sustainability threshold are Johnson (32 percent), and Blake (31 percent).

Teams performance can also be significantly influenced by BIP luck. The A’s are currently cursing their .244 BIP. Also unlucky are the Pirates at .274, Padres at .281, Devil Rays at .281 and Orioles at .281. The lucky teams are the Indians at .346, Rockies at .335, Yankees at .321, Rangers at .321 and Blue Jays at .320.

Here are some more BIP notables with recommendations.

Buy

Albert Puljos (1B, Cardinals): Of course, you can’t really buy the major's home run leader. But expect that batting average to bounce back, as he’s at .241 on BIP compared to .318 last year.

Barry Bonds (OF, Giants): Just going where the numbers lead. Bonds is at .212 this year compared to .314 in ’04 (and he’s hitting 23.5 percent line drives this year compared to 19 percent his last full season).

Scott Podsednik (OF, White Sox): You know we don’t like the punch-and-judy speed guys, but Podsednik is at .243 on BIP this year compared to .344 last year and even .275 in his horrible 2004. His current liner rate is higher than last year, too.

Sell

Vernon Wells (OF, Blue Jays): We like him at age 27 but he can’t sustain his .385 BIP (.272 last year); his line drive rate is down compared to ’05, too.

Adam Kennedy (2B, Angels): It’s not just his .396 BIP that caught our eye, but his league-leading 38 percent line drive rate (23 percent last year and 20 percent in ‘04).

Omar Vizquel (SS, Giants): He’s raced out of the gates at age 39. But he’s hit over .300 just once and can’t maintain his current .369 BIP (.299 last year) or line drive rate (28 precent up from 23.5 in ’05).