Baseball By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

April 21, 2006
An Unbiased Look at Defense

Defense is the Holy Grail of baseball statistics, as quantifying defensive proficiency has proved maddeningly difficult.

This has left a gaping hole in our understanding of the game. With no reliable objective data to inform our opinions of which players defend well or poorly, our judgment is overwhelmed. We become biased by what’s most vivid in our minds. A handful of spectacular plays in big games shape our views. But poor defenders often are forced to make spectacular plays because they lack the range that others use to make these same plays more routinely.

And once we have an impression of a player as a good defender, we all have a tendency to seek confirmation and reject contradictory evidence.

Stepping up to the plate in 2006 is Baseball Info Solutions, which has published the aptly named, “The Fielding Bible.” Using precise data on every ball put in play over the past three years, the book uses a plus/minus system to come up with a net number of bases prevented or allowed by every player and team.

There are numerous recent Gold Glove winners who the data proves are actually poor fielders: Cubs first-baseman Derrek Lee, Red Sox third baseman Mike Lowell, Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter and Phillies right fielder Bobby Abreu to name a few.

Jeter, for example, allowed 34 more hits than would have a average-fielding shortstop, second worst only to the Rangers Michael Young. And Jeter was 30th last year in converting just 54 percent of double-play opportunities (Cleveland’s Jhonny Peralta led the majors with 71 percent).

It’s extremely important to know which teams are best and worst at preventing hits. “The Fielding Bible” provides a total net ranking of for each team’s outfielders, middle and corner infielders. In 2005, the best defensive team in baseball by a mile was the Philadelphia Phillies at 108 bases prevented versus average. This year, the Phillies should be even better as they added the league’s best defensive outfielder in ’05, Aaron Rowand (who made 15 more plays than average, preventing 30 total bases).

The worst defensive team in ’05 was the Yankees at a ridiculous 164 bases allowed over average. They tried to fix their league-worst outfield (95 more bases allowed) by signing Johnny Damon, who will save them 35 bases over Bernie Williams despite being below average himself.

Other teams that significantly helped out their pitchers in ’05 were the Indians (69 bases prevented), Angels (57), White Sox (52), Astros (50), Braves (47) and A’s (40).

Other teams that hurt their staffs were the Royals (143 more bases allowed), Marlins (97) and Reds (96).

Now let’s use this information to make some player recommendations.

Buy

Cory Lidle (P, Phillies): Lidle can be had cheaply in all formats. He’s an extreme groundball pitcher with a the league’s best-by-a-mile infield defense and has a 17/1 strikeout/walk ratio masked by a 5.00 ERA and very bad luck on balls in play.

Paul Byrd (P, Indians): After walking 28 in 200-plus innings last year, Byrd has six in less than 10 innings heading into his last start, where he was again the Byrd of ’05. Ignore the 7.02 ERA.

Hold

Jon Garland (P, White Sox): He’s been the league’s unluckiest pitcher by far, with 1.92 baserunners per inning despite an 11/3 K/BB ratio. Don’t assume last year was a mirage based on this small sample size.

Sell

Mike Mussina (P, Yankees): The Yankees defense won’t allow Mussina to sustain his elite ERA and ratio, so expect a significant correction. Lock in a tidy profit now.

Bronson Arroyo (P, Reds): Outfield is the big bugaboo for the Reds defensive woes, and the alignment will be the same as in ’05 once Ken Griffey Jr. returns from the DL. Arroyo is an extreme flyball pitcher.