Baseball By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

April 14, 2006
Injecting Facts Into Steroid Debate

Barry Bonds’ early season homer drought and reports of an ongoing federal investigation into his grand jury testimony have added more fuel to the steroid debate. But thus far, the  debate has been curiously short on facts regarding whether steroids actually work.

Many assume they do simply because players use them. But players still try using corked bats and baseball has banned them, even though the laws of physics say no net benefit is possible -- because any bat speed gained is erased by loss of bat mass.

There is not a single medical study that proves any benefit from steroid use that translates to hitting a baseball. But many assume there is rock-solid statistical evidence of this steroid benefit. Actually, there’s not a “shred of it,” according to Art De Vany, professor emeritus of economics at the University of California (Irvine).

It is true that homers last year were at their lowest levels since the supposedly great Steroids Summer of 1998. But last year’s total was almost identical to 2002. And the approximately 10 percent decline from the homer-happiest (i.e., steroid) years of late is actually less variance than noted in every decade since the dead ball, even after adjusting for expansion.

De Vany authored a recent study on the issue and explains that Bonds didn’t exceed his average homer year when he blasted 73 any more than Roger Maris did when he hit 61. De Vany adds that large swings in individual homer proficiency should be expected because hitting home runs is a form of genius at work. We have no trouble accepting that artists have tremendous variation between their handful of best works and their remaining catalog. So, De Vany says, we should accept similar variation in the best years of our best athletes.

What about three guys (Bonds, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa) all breaking Maris’ long-standing record over a few seasons? Perhaps a mere statistical anomaly. You wouldn’t expect to roll the same number in dice three times in a row, either; but, if you roll them bones often enough, it will surely happen.

Players presumed to take steroids did not hit the ball further than players of the past. Mickey Mantle still has the longest recorded homer in history, which he hit in 1953 (506 feet, wind aided).

As for Bonds’ age when he dramatically increased his homer rates, that, too, is not unprecedented. In fact, Hank Aaron’s three best years in percentage of hits that were homers occurred when he was age 37, 38 and 39.

Now on to this week’s player recommendations.

Buy

Matt Murton (OF, Cubs): Knocked for lack of power, Murton did slug over .500 in 140 at bats last year and had 20 steals spanning three levels. Given his contact skills, the 24-year-old righty is a good bet to hit .300 in ’06.

Francisco Liriano (P, Twins): Not quite a starter yet. But this lefty has lights-out stuff that’s leaving major-leaguers shaking their heads. The Twins are foolishly keeping him in the pen because they have no other lefty and are paying sub-mediocrity Kyle Lohse $4 million.

Orlando Cabrera (SS, Angels): He made too much contact last year to hit in the .250s. Cabrera’s luck is turning this year and he’s got double-digit pop to go with 20-steal speed.

Hold

Oliver Perez (P, Pirates): He’s been erratic again in ’06. But the 239 Ks in 2004 are still worth remembering. Perez needs to get his velocity back consistently into the low 90s and maintain control (12 walks, 15 Ks in 13 innings thus far). Reserve him, but keep monitoring his starts through May.

Sell

Ryan Zimmerman (3B, Nationals): The phenom is stuck in a pitcher’s park that suppresses righty power by 15%. There’s no compelling reason to get ahead of yourself given the 21 year old’s lack of pro experience.