Baseball By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

April 7, 2006
Average Joes vs. GMs

Ranking major league teams by the 10 most common fantasy baseball categories turns out to be a great way to separate the winners from losers, according to research by a Wall Street Journal sports reporter who wrote a book about his foray into an expert fantasy league.

Sam Walker, author of “Fantasyland,” says that this is proof that “purists” who sneer at the particular statistical obsessions of the community are misguided. And if the best fantasy players have the biggest impact on real-life wins and losses, then fantasy prices are a solid indicator of actual value.

Armed with average fantasy prices in hundreds of leagues courtesy of our friends at fantasyauctioneer.com, let’s see how Regular Joes value major leaguers compared to the GMs who actually get paid for the privilege. For clarity’s sake, we’ll convert fantasy prices into major-league equivalent salaries. (The translation is based on the percentages each group of owners paid out of the respective salary pools.)

The highest-paid player in fantasy baseball is Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols at a major-league equivalent $28.7 million dollars. His actual salary in 2006, according to www.mlbcontracts.blogspot.com, is $14 million.

The second highest salaried player is Yankees 3B Alex Rodriguez, who fantasy leaguers deem worthy of $26.9 million this season. He was viewed as grossly overpaid when he signed his deal years ago, but the Yanks are paying him “only” $25 million this year. Next year, they’ll have to pay market value when his actual salary jumps to $27 million. (That’s spooky.)

The biggest bargain in baseball this year is Mets 3B David Wright, who fantasy leaguers say is worth $19.6 million but who the Mets have for the second-year tender of $340 thousand. Mets SS Jose Reyes makes about the same in real life but is worth $17.1 million according to Average Joes. So the Mets are rich and cost-efficient, a tough combo to beat.

Marlins OF Miguel Cabrera is just behind Wright at $19.6 million in actual value according to fantasy GMs, but just $475 thousand in real Marlins salary. (Florida doesn’t  have a single player under contract for 2007.)

In the American League, Mariners phemon Felix Hernandez is the biggest real-life bargain, as fantasy leaguers have deemed the fireballer worthy of $15.9 million this year while he’s actually getting paid a relatively paltry $330 thousand.

Of course, there are inefficiencies in every economy. Let’s see if we can spot some players who should be bought or sold at current fantasy prices.

Buy

J.D. Drew (OF, Dodgers): Fetched a miserly $8.5 million major-league equivalent salary in the average fantasy auction ($14). Sure the injury risk is ever-present, but that’s true for any player. He’s being discounted too steeply given his 950+ OPS since 2004.

Matt Murton (OF, Cubs): He’s knocked for lack of power, but slugged over .500 in 140 at bats last year. At just $5.5 million converted ($9 in fantasy), he’s a sure earner given his 20 steals spanning three levels last year. Murton’s contact skills and home park make a .300 average likely.

Sell

Scott Podsednik (OF, White Sox): Again, we’re going to beat this until it’s conventional wisdom: punch-and-judy steals guys are vastly overrated in fantasy and real life. The man is a corner outfielder in the AL and will be lucky to hit five homers. Don’t dig yourself a hole in the power categories by throwing away $14.1 million in big league dollars ($23 in fantasy).

Mark Buehrle (P, White Sox): Not meaning to pick on the World Champs, but never pay for wins, which pitchers have less control over than we think. Buehrle is a nice pitcher, but is not worth $15.9 million ($26 in fantasy). That money needs to be reserved for guys who can dominate with strikeouts (as valuable in reality as in fantasy, as they retire batters without leaving anything to chance).